There wasn’t a player on the Indians’ roster who received more negative comments this season than Carlos Santana. Long been the divisive player, representing the current debate between analytical and traditional fans, Santana did not have the type of season fans on either side of the aisle came to expect from him. Many are now calling for his head and urging that his career in an Indians’ uniform come to an end. I have argued many times this season that Santana’s struggles over the past year were the single biggest reason the Indians’ offense struggled so mightily during the first half of the year. Yet, despite his struggles he still managed to perform fairly well, regardless of what fans who still believe in pitcher wins say. However, the Indians needed much more than “fairly well” from their best power hitter.
If you aren’t a close follower of Burning River Baseball, I am a follower of the analytical approach to player evaluation. It goes hand in hand that I am also a fan of Carlos Santana as a baseball player. It is indisputable that from 2011-2014 Santana has been one of the best hitters in the American League. Over that span, Santana has averaged a 126 wRC+. For those unfamiliar with the statistic wRC+, or Weighted Runs Created, it is a statistic that attempts to quantify a player’s total offensive value and measure it by runs (for more in-depth information on the stat, click here.) When evaluating a player’s wRC+ value, 100 is considered league average, therefore Santana’s 126 average over the preceding 4 years is considered well above league average. As much as I hate to break it to those who continue to look at his batting average and think he’s a terrible baseball player, he’s not. With more and more front offices placing more weight behind sabermetric statistics, he’s not going to be seen as a bad baseball player any time soon by those that make all the decisions.
With this said, it is also indisputable that 2015 was a disappointment for Santana, failing both the eye tests of traditional fans and coming up short of expectations with analytics after posting a 110 wRC+. Much of Santana’s struggles this season can be linked to his low power numbers. Not surprisingly, the Indians also had a low power output as a team this season. Santana posted a career-low .395 slugging percentage, a career-low .164 ISO, and 19 home runs, which were 1 more than his career-low 18 in 2012.
Performing eye tests of my own, it felt like Santana was grounding out into the shift at a very high rate, and sure enough, he was. Santana is a pull hitter, there’s no secret about that and he doesn’t try to be anything different, for better or for worse. 53% of Santana’s batted balls went to the pull-side of the field that was the 3rd highest percentage in the American League. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing; many of the players surrounding him on the list were some of the best hitters in baseball (Brian Dozier, Chris Davis, and Jose Bautista were 1, 2, and 4 on the list). However, being a pull hitter can only work if you are able to hit the ball over the shift with line drives and fly balls with some regularity. 44.5% of Santana’s batted balls in play went for ground balls, a 4% increase from 2014. To make up for this increase in ground balls, only 18.8% of his batted balls were line drives, a 1% decrease from 2014 and a 3% decrease from 2013. Additionally, 18.8% of Santana’s batted balls in play were infield fly balls, that’s a 4% increase from last year and was the 4th highest total in the American League.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that fewer line drives, more ground balls and many more infield flies does not equal success at the plate. The potential causes of this shift in batted ball outcomes is hard to nail down. At the end of the season Santana revealed that he had been battling back problems for the entire season. Indians fans are well aware of the unquantifiable effects of lingering injury problems after Jason Kipnis‘ 2015 resurgence following his injury plagued 2014. Back problems could easily be the explanation for his struggles, the difference between an infield fly and a home run is a matter of fractions of an inch, back issues can affect every physical action a player takes. It’s quite conceivable that his back struggles threw everything out of whack.
Regardless of how you feel about Santana, the Indians need his production in order to be successful. It’s no coincidence that Santana’s best season was also the last time the Indians won 90+ games. Surrounded by the right amount of help, Santana is a lethal hitter. Let’s hope this year’s struggles were the product of injuries because the Indians will once again enter next season with high expectations.
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