I don’t know exactly when it happened, but we have passed the point where Matt Underwood and Rick Manning have stopped mentioning how “no one thought Carlos Santana could be a lead-off hitter” three times per game. Of course, that “no one thought” that about Santana was a view held purely by those who have never used the internet as many have been clamoring for Santana to take over the lead-off spot for years. This is the earliest tweet I could find on the subject:
Sounds crazy, but not really….Carlos Santana should hit lead-off. He takes pitches & gets on base. And he steals! #tribe
— daryl l. feyedelem (@BuckeyeDejaVu) July 26, 2014
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But there have also been pieces on the idea around the web dating back a few years including one by our own Caitlin Boron from early in the 2015 season when she used to write for a site that no longer exists. No matter who came up with the idea first (probably Billy Beane back in the early 2000’s), the ground breaking idea that a team’s lead-off hitter should get on base a lot has been around for awhile. Now, even the idea that he doesn’t necessarily have to be fast is becoming more accepted as noted by the lack of daily comments from the Indians very traditional announcing crew.
Now that he has played out of the #1 spot enough, we can actually look back and see how he is doing there. While I don’t generally buy into general stats based on line-up position (such as runs, RBI and home runs particularly since the situation greatly effects these numbers), it is interesting to see how he has varied his approach based on his line-up position. This can be seen by a few non-standard numbers such as walk and strike out rates and type of contact (hard/soft or level of elevation). For the sake of having the largest amount of data possible, we’ll look at his entire career, but only when batting 1st through 5th.
| Career | GP | PA | BB% | K% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | IFH% | Pull% | Cent% | Opp% | Soft% | Med% | Hard% |
| First | 58 | 271 | 15% | 16% | 41% | 41% | 15% | 15% | 60% | 25% | 16% | 14% | 48% | 38% |
| Second | 35 | 162 | 17% | 20% | 40% | 40% | 8% | 8% | 60% | 25% | 15% | 13% | 49% | 38% |
| Third | 65 | 284 | 16% | 17% | 39% | 39% | 8% | 8% | 58% | 27% | 15% | 17% | 49% | 34% |
| Fourth | 460 | 1,995 | 17% | 18% | 40% | 40% | 5% | 5% | 57% | 29% | 14% | 17% | 47% | 37% |
| Fifth | 194 | 819 | 13% | 18% | 39% | 39% | 3% | 3% | 55% | 29% | 16% | 18% | 48% | 35% |
There are a lot of numbers there and because the vast majority of Santana’s at bats came in the fourth or fifth spot, only those in the last two rows are really significant. First, looking at things Santana can control, he has always been a patient hitter. While by-the-batting-order splits aren’t available, he has essentially swung at about 21% of pitches outside of the zone and about 60% in the zone for his entire career. This has lead to his high walk rate (and also his high strike out rate) as he is generally deep in a count before the at bat ends.
Interestingly enough, both Santana’s walk rate and strike out rate slightly dropped when hitting lead-off although the increase in contact has not turned into a greater preponderance of hits. In fact, Santana’s career average is nearly identical (between .231 and .235) when batting first, third or fourth as is his BABIP (between .240 and .253). For a little more date on when exactly these at bats took place, the chart below shows Santana’s games played in each line-up spot each season of his career.
| GP | Total | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
| First | 58 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Second | 35 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Third | 65 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 35 |
| Fourth | 460 | 6 | 89 | 130 | 48 | 81 | 96 | 10 |
| Fifth | 194 | 40 | 30 | 8 | 40 | 41 | 35 | 0 |
While all Santana’s time hitting first or second has come in the past two seasons, he has hit fourth and fifth pretty evenly from year to year. This year, Mike Napoli has been cemented in the clean-up spot, so the number is lower than normal, but in general, the fourth and fifth spots are his most regular in his career. The point here is that none of the stats are more heavily weighted towards Santana’s best seasons in 2012 and 2013.
The real question lies in where is Santana most useful to the team. According to wRC+, which judges a player’s value compared to the rest of the league, Santana is best hitting fifth. He is an above average hitter everywhere but second (probably unevenly skewed because almost all the ABs came in 2015) and his mark when batting fifth (138) is considerably better than any other position (117 batting third, 118 batting first, 119 batting fourth).
There is a general notion out there that Santana has a much better approach and much better results with none one compared to when he has runners in scoring position. This comes from the same sources as those who couldn’t imagine Santana as a lead-off hitter (ironically, since this thinking should suggest he would be a better lead-off hitter), in the Indians announcers, both radio and TV. However, this is exactly the opposite of reality. In the actual world of things that happens (rather than the made up world where sports announcers just say things without doing any research), Santana has hit .248/.384/.444 with runners in scoring position and .233/.352/.425 with the bases empty.
It has also been said that he loses his patient approach when the pressure is on, but that is also false as his K% actually drops 19% with the bases empty to 17% with runners in scoring position and his walk rate jumps from 15% to 19%. If there is any change in approach by Santana depending on the situation, he hits better with runners on and should be placed in the line-up where he can make the most of those situations.
We have seen this year that, contrary to popular belief, Carlos Santana can be a lead-off hitter. He has served admirably in the role and is well on his way to the most productive season in his career. That being said, he is only the Indians lead-off hitter out of lack of a better option. If Michael Brantley was healthy and hitting like he has in the past, Brantley would hit third, displacing Lindor and likely pushing either the short stop or Jason Kipnis into the lead-off spot. If Tyler Naquin or Rajai Davis could get on base at a reasonable rate then the Indians would have another option, but Davis can’t and Naquin is buoyed by an unsustainable BABIP that is already rapidly dropping. The fact is, Santana remains the Indians best lead-off option at the moment, at least vs left handed pitchers (against righties, Kipnis or Naquin would probably be fine at this point).
That being said, the position should still only be considered temporary. Any player capable of hitting around 30 more home runs is going to be more valuable a bit lower in the line-up and Santana already has 24 this year. He has already split time fairly evenly between first and fifth this year, so Terry Francona has done some experimenting and, if he finds a suitable replacement, he should definitely run with it to take greater advantage of Santana’s power. Either way, Santana has proven that he is capable of hitting anywhere he needs to in the line-up (except second for whatever reason) with the same regular reliability Indians fans have grown to despise (despite the fact that he’s one of the best hitters in baseball). If only the primary sources of Indians information (STO and WTAM) would recognize and appreciate this.
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