Carolina At Seattle – Why You Shouldn’t Sleep On This One

Seattle finished the 2014 regular season ranked 1^st in total defense, 1^st against the pass, 3^rd against the run, and 1^st in points allowed. They were also 7-1 at home.

Sounds like an unbeatable defense, right? The Seahawks were equally brutal on offense, finishing as the #1 rushing team in the league, averaging 25 more yards on the ground per contest than the next best team (Dallas).

And yet here they are with the same amount on the line as the Carolina Panthers, who finished the regular season with a losing record yet claimed their division crown, something these same Seahawks accomplished in 2010. Seattle faced the defending Super Bowl champs for their first playoff game, and pulled off a stunning upset that also saw the original “BeastQuake” as the dagger in the Saints postseason hopes.

Now the roles are reversed. The game is still in Seattle, only the Seahawks are the defending champs this time around, facing a supposed stepping stone rival, a rival playing with a lot of pride. Don’t sleep on this Panthers team, the same that finished 2014 by going on the road and blowing out Atlanta to claim their spot in the postseason, and then started 2015 by dispatching the Arizona Cardinals, which was a tough win whether their opponent had a serviceable QB or not (they didn’t).

While their regular season ratings may not be something to brag about, (Carolina finished 7^th in rushing offense, 10^th in total defense, 11^th against the pass,  16^th against the run, and 21^st in points allowed) they have the proper qualifications to handle Seattle in a slow paced, low scoring, winner take all grudge match. I don’t think they will beat Seattle regardless of the game site, but that it’s in Seattle doesn’t automatically default the Seahawks to the winning side. They need to avoid looking ahead to championship Sunday and just take care of business to get their ticket punched.

While it’s true that the Panthers may be weakened on the defensive side as they are without their best run stuffer Star Lotulelei, Seattle has their own training table to keep their eyes on. Already down Brendan Mebane for the season, the Seahawks placed Jordan Hill on IR this week, and will lean on Demarcus Dobbs to fill in for Hill in a tackle rotation with Kevin Williams and Tony McDaniel. While the interior of the line may not be weak, they will need help in run support from Bobby Wagner, Bruce Irvin, KJ Wright, and Kam Chancellor to prevent Cam Newton or backfield mates Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams from getting beyond the defense’s second level. You may be eyeing that matchup and saying to yourself, “no problem”. Well, with great power comes great responsibility, and the Seahawks need to make sure they plan for and play the Panthers just as they would any elite team.

On a very positive note, the Legion of Boom should be at full strength for Saturday, and while you’ll hear reports that RCB Byron Maxwell is missing practice, it’s nothing to worry about, the rumor is that he’s tackling the flu and will be a go come game time.

And don’t be distracted by the game held in Carolina earlier this year. Yes, Seattle beat Carolina earlier this season, but neither side was at full strength, so don’t point to that game and think you can pull anything from it. The one thing the playoffs nearly always guarantee, is that you’ll see something new, and what you won’t see is a repeat of what you got 11 weeks ago, as both teams have surged back to recognizable versions of who and what they were at the end of 2013.

What’s going to decide this game? “X-factors”. For Seattle, it’s Russell Wilson. The Seahawks run better than any team in the NFL, but they are barely scraping by in the passing game. That they do survive usually relies on the brilliance of Wilson, who somehow gets calmer when the moment gets tighter and squeezes the patience of most mortal men. Aiding Wilson’s calm is his mobility, as he can run as well or better than any passer in the league, and if you want to discuss 300 yard games, how about 300 yard gains? Wilson had 310 more rushing yards this season than his 2^nd runner up (Newton), and a very healthy 348 more yards than Newton did passing. Wilson also displayed his decision making ability, as he tossed 20 TD’s to just 7 INT’s, while Newton threw 18 TD’s to 12 INT’s. Wilson did all of this without a single receiver eclipsing 1000 yards, showcasing that he is a master of moving the ball around and finding the open man.

For Carolina, it’s all about the Benjamin, Kelvin Benjamin. Standing 6’5” and weighing in at 240lbs, Benjamin is a rare talent with rare size that could give the slimmer Seattle secondary a few problems. With deceptive speed and great hands, this is the showdown that will test Richard Sherman and Maxwell, as Benjamin is just green and good enough to get himself in to trouble with two of the best cover men in the game, and Cam is that brave bordering on reckless QB that will sling it in Benjamin’s direction even when the coverage is sound. Again, don’t merely point at a matchup and write it off. Yes, Benjamin is a receiver who barely eclipsed 1000 yards and didn’t eclipse 10 TD’s, but that’s not the whole story, and Benjamin needs to be taken very, very, very seriously. Mike Williams is a big reason why Seattle won its 2010 playoff game, and an even bigger reason why is that Williams could win jump balls, something Benjamin is built for. Sherman is very gifted at keeping receivers from winning jump balls, but Benjamin isn’t exactly the average man across the line from #25, either.

I expect that you could find a viable reason for either team’s ability to win in this matchup, and it wouldn’t be hard to argue for or against either side if you were so inclined. In the end, I can see this one going the distance, and ultimately being won by the leg of Steven Hauschka on a pair of late field goals. You may think that sounds crazy, but as good as Seattle is, Carolina is not the slouch they’re made out to be. You’ll regularly hear the cliché from guys that take every game and every opponent seriously “that those guys get paid, too”, and it’s the truth. Luke Kuechly isn’t the Panthers’ captain on defense by accident or circumstance, he’s that good. And while Arizona doesn’t have a premiere running back anywhere near the talent or production of Lynch, they didn’t get held to an NFL playoff record 77 total yards just because third string QB Ryan Lindley was in the game (though it helped).

At around 8pm on Saturday, we’ll know who won this one. In the mean-time, enjoy the playoff atmosphere, invite your closest Seahawks family to the house tomorrow, put Fox12 on the HD TV at 5pm, and sit back and enjoy the action. Football gods willing, Seattle will advance to their second straight NFC Championship when the dust settles.