Caveat Emptor: A Friendly Reminder

I was summoned at the last minute to come up with an article, so I decided to root through my archives to see if anything from my old blog was worth posting. I am sure most of us are tired of discussing Johan Satana, Erik Bedard, or Dan Haren, so I wanted to write about something unrelated to the Hot Stove for once. What better to get our mind off our beloved Sox than some Yankee bashing, right? Enjoy.

Editor’s Note: This article was originally written on October 31st, 2007.
Alex Rodriguez is the most coveted and despised free-agent in history. At 32, he is the best player in baseball. His agent, Scott Boras, has made it clear his client deserves a 10-12 year deal that will dwarf the 10-year $252 million dollar contract he signed with Texas seven years ago. Reportedly, the Yankees offered A-Rod a five-year, $150 million dollar extension and he turned it down. Even at 30 million dollars a year, A-Rod wanted more, and the worst part is, he’ll get it.
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are making moves within the organization to prepare an offer for Rodriguez. [Editor’s Note: one week later, when writing my Top 50 Free Agents predictions, I still picked A-Rod to resign with New York.] It is the best fit for him; a large, superficial market where his flaws become virtues. A casual fan base that doesn’t care as much about winning as they do looking good. A-Rod will be a star, a Hero of Hollywood.
Money isn’t an issue, not when you consider that MLB set attendance records in almost half the teams stadiums this year. Revenue is being found in more venues than the owners could have ever imagined; the revenue from MLB.com is split between all the teams, a paycheck that now exceeds $30 million dollars a year, or, a large chunk of A-Rod’s yearly demands.
The Angels need a big hitter to give protection to Vlad Guerrero, a third baseman, and a English-speaking face of the franchise. Rodriguez fits all three, and he will help ensure Anaheim can hang divisional champion banners year after year. They also won’t have to worry about hanging up any of those annoying pennants or World Series banners, either, but that is a different story.
This story is about history. The old saying, if you don’t study history, you are doomed to repeat it. Let’s look back at a previous young superstar, a “can’t miss” Hall of Famer who was destined to re-write the history books. There are some eerie simliarities between the careers of Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey, Jr that I am sure Scott Boras would love to never be brought up again.
At 30 years old, Ken Griffey, Jr had hit more homeruns than anyone else at that age., 438 long balls in just 12 years, 11 if you don’t count the year he was injured and only played 72 games. At 30 years old, Alex Rodriguez had hit more homeruns than anyone else at that age, 464 long balls in just 12 years, 11 if you don’t count his rookie year when he only played 48 games.
Junior Griffey had averaged 50 home runs the past 5 seasons, hit more than 50 twice, picked up a MVP award, and played in 10 All-Star games. A-Rod has averaged 44 home runs in his past 5 seasons, hit more than 50 three times, picked up 2 MVP awards, and played in 10 All-Star games.
At 30 years old, Ken Griffey, Jr had 1883 hits and topped 170 hits seven times in his career. He amassed a total of 1270 RBI. At 30 years old, Alex Rodriguez had 2067 hits and topped 170 hits nine times in his career. He amassed a total of 1347 RBI. You can see where this is going.
This is nothing against Junior, who, even through battling injuries throughout his 30s, made two All-Star teams and will reach 600 home runs for his career next year. Scott Boras has claimed that A-Rod is worth the astronomical figures he is demanding because he will, in time, break the all-time home run record, and the all-time hits record. His statistical findings are that, given all the milestones Alex will chase, break, and create will generate revenue through local television networks, ticket sales, merchandise, etc and validate Rodriguez’s salary. I’m not saying he won’t, but whenever you are basing a value on something that may happen, just remember, Ken Griffey Jr was Alex Rodriguez in 1999. Ask the Cincinnati Reds how that worked out for them …