When discussing Matt Spencer you have to talk about expectations as expectations have a large impact on how a player is perceived.
Spencer came into the OHL with some lofty expectations. He was drafted third overall by the Peterborough Petes in the 2012 OHL draft behind Travis Konecny, and Dylan Strome, and in front of exceptional status player Sean Day, and Lawson Crouse. All of these players are all expected to be high first round picks in their respective draft seasons.
I first saw Spencer last year as a 16 year old. I wasn’t blogging at the time so I don’t have notes but I remember him playing on the bottom pair and even then not impressing me very much. I came away disappointed as he was so hyped. Looking at his stats from that season I think my disappointment was justified as he only has 15 points in 64 games.
In the off-season I was again expecting big things. I wrote off the previous season as a learning experience and getting adjusted to the OHL. Scouts did the same thing. He was given an A rating by Central Scouting and was in the first round in a lot of mock drafts.
Early in the season I felt these rankings were justified as Spencer has great tools. He’s got the ideal size for an NHL D, 6’2 201. His skating is elite, by far his best attribute. He’s very quick and gets up and down the ice fast. His shot is strong. Not a rocket but hard. Plays physical as well. He was leaned on very heavily by the Petes, playing in all situations as the team’s top defencemen.
In watching Spener all season I’ve tracked a few of his games and this is where some of the doubt about him has come in. I tracked his Corsi for five games and in those contests Spencer was a +89/-121 for 42%. Even on a bad Petes team (est Fenwick Close 46.6%) that number is still poor. He didn’t score like expected, especially given the ice time he received. He scored only 30 points in 67, which is not bad but again back to expectations I was hoping to see more. Again his team played a factor, but only so much of one. We’ve seen many players overcome poor teams and still put up respectable numbers. For example Kyle Capibianco, another draft eligible defencemen, playing in Sudbury was great putting up 40 points in 68 games.
A major part of this lack of offense from Spencer comes from his style of play. He plays a very “safe” style of hockey; that is he chips the puck off the glass a lot in the defensive zone and dumps the puck into the offensive zone. This was an alarming trend to see as you would expect a guy with Spencer’s skating ability to be able to carry the puck out of and into the zone.
The reason he doesn’t carry the puck more in my opinion is his decision making is very poor. This stems from a poor hockey IQ. He makes some awful turnovers, now I know turnovers aren’t all bad but for Spencer the turnovers come from not knowing what to do with the puck. For example a play that sticks out to me; Spencer had the puck behind the net, the opposing player came at him and Spencer didn’t know where to go with the puck, panicked and turned it over. He needs to improve his reads and know what to do with the puck in that situation. Ideally you like to see him make a quick pass out of the zone or try and skate it out.
The hype has definitely cooled on Spencer. He finished the year ranked 68th among North American Skaters on NHL Central Scouting’s final list. I see Spencer as a comparable player to Blake Siebenaler as they both have a great tool kit but haven’t been able to convert it into points yet at the OHL level. Much like Siebenaler I think the third round is the place to take Spencer. Spencer is a project pick as you have to work with him to improve his decision making. If that can be improved upon though watch out he’s going to become one heck of a player.
You can find me tweeting @PaulBerthelot
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