CBJ Top 25 Under 25: #10 Joonas Korpisalo

Let’s do some goalie comparison. Goalie A was in the American Hockey League last season, finishing with a regular season .913 SV% (18 games played), and an .898 SV% in 9 playoff games, both numbers at all strengths. Goalie B was in the NHL for 31 games last year, finishing with a .920 SV% (.931 SV% at even strength). Which goalie do you pick? The answer seems easy enough; it’s Goalie B, right? Unfortunately for the Columbus Blue Jackets, the selection is complicated. Joonas Korpisalo happens to be both Goalie A and Goalie B.

Young goalies are hard to evaluate, and Korpisalo is no different. So let’s consider the conundrum. Joonas Korpisalo’s NHL showing was spectacular in the 2015-16 season. The Coach shared a tremendous season review breakdown, detailing why Korpisalo was so great in his time with the Blue Jackets. When Bob went down (and McElhinney went down), Korpisalo stepped in, and was fantastic. There’s no denying that past results were exceptional.

Yet this NHL play is counterbalanced in two crucial ways. First, Korpisalo only has 31 games of performance. Eric Tulsky’s influential work on projecting goalie performance is worth revisiting, and an important takeaway for Columbus fans: the need for sample size. Korpisalo fits generally into the .924 +/- .009 even strength save percentage bin. While .924 is just slightly above NHL average (great news), the broad uncertainty is hard to imagine. On the low end of the estimate? You get this past year’s Bobrovsky (which, you may recall, was not good).

The second counterbalance for Korpisalo: that mediocre AHL showing. The playoff run was especially poor for Korpisalo, a part of Anton Forsberg taking (and thoroughly dominating) the starter’s role en route to the Calder Cup. What’s the best way of factoring so-so American League play into a career profile?

Future Outlook

In the interest of disclosure: I rated Korpsialo the lowest of any Buckeye State writer during the Top 25 Under 25 selection process (25th on my list). It’s Korpisalo’s NHL showing that makes him worth ranking, and he was the only goalie I gave a vote. It’s the position uncertainty that leaves me wary of Joonas Korpisalo (and Forsberg). My own trepidation is partially Korpisalo’s doing (the AHL stats), but more a function of his age and the volatility of all netminders.

Yet as Korpisalo plays more this year, we should gain clarity on his long-term viability. Previously at Buckeye State Hockey, I gave a review of Sergei Bobrovsky’s 2015-16 performance, and Alison gave us the rundown on Anton Forsberg. Based on the confusing results for all three goalies, there’s a chance this season could become a battle for the long-term #1 and #2 netminder spots in the Columbus organization. (And that’s even without the Las Vegas Expansion Draft looming in the background.)

Curtis McElhinney is likely to hold the regular on-the-bench backup spot, so we should shift our eyes to Cleveland, where Korpisalo and Forsberg will try to claim superiority. Does great NHL performance translate to the AHL? Will an insane Calder run carry over to the new year? It’s quietly one of the great CBJ stories this year, even if it won’t play out in Columbus most of the time.

Age: 22 (04/28/1994)
Position: Goaltender
Catches: Left
Height/Weight: 6’ 3’’ / 183 lbs
2015-16 Team: Columbus Blue Jackets (NHL) and Lake Erie Monsters (AHL)
Likely 2016-17 Destination: Cleveland Monsters (AHL) to get lots of game time, with a real chance at Columbus (NHL) whenever needed