CBJ Top 25 Under 25: #14 Daniel Zaar

Columbus selected Swedish winger Daniel Zaar with their sixth round pick, 152nd over-all, in 2012. In that draft eligible season, Zaar put up 38 points in 44 games with Rogle BK in Sweden’s under-20 junior league, which were decent but not eye-popping numbers.

After bouncing around the next two seasons between the U20 league, two teams in Sweden’s secondary Allsvenskan league, and a short stint with the SHL, Sweden’s top league, Zaar finally found himself a regular roster spot with Lulea in the SHL in 2014/15. He started out strong, but faded down the stretch, finishing in a bottom-six role with 9 goals and 27 points in 54 games. Shortly after, he signed his first NHL contract, an entry-level deal with Columbus.

The ’94-born Zaar entered his rookie AHL season as a bit of a wild card. He had impressed in at the Blue Jackets summer rookie camp, and at the Traverse City rookie tournament, but opinions on expected output were mixed. He quickly went to work, using his speed down the wing and NHL-quality wrist shot to notch 21 goals in his rookie season, 17 of which came at even strength. Zaar established himself as a sniper with a fearsome wrister, which could come from all angles, and he was not shy about unleashing it. Zaar finished with 207 shots, good for sixth in the AHL, and his 2.915 shots/game was also in the top 25 of the league.

While shooting the puck at the net is never a bad thing, Zaar is kind of a one-trick pony. He flies down the wing, he gets into the zone, and he shoots. That’s his move. He’s not going to intimidate defenders with a seeing-eye pass or a sweet dangle. He’s going to shoot the puck whenever he can, regardless of the situation. That leads to his shot totals being well up there, but his scoring chance numbers lagging a bit behind.

During the AHL play-offs, I tracked seven games of Corsi data, and five games of full data for Lake Erie. Zaar performed well over-all, with 7 goals in 17 play-off games, including 4 in the Calder Cup Final vs Hershey. That said, what is a bit concerning is the lack of consistent scoring chances produced at even strength. Only four of Zaar’s 21 total 5v5 shot attempts ended up as a chance. More concerning is that his line with Michael Chaput and Alex Broadhurst bled scoring chances the other way – Zaar was on the ice for just 8 chances for and 26 against over those five games tracked, which was the worst differential on the team. This would back up the opinion that while Zaar is good at generating shot attempts for his team, he often takes very low-percentage shots, which lead to quick turnarounds for the opposition to rush up ice and nab a chance against his line. Zaar ended with a 48.2% Corsi For rate (+94 attempts for, -101 against) over the seven tracked games of Corsi. On the plus side, those 21 shot attempts were the most on his line, and one of the top numbers of any player in the series on either team.

Future Outlook

Based on his drafting position, Daniel Zaar has already surpassed expectations even being considered as a potential NHL call-up.

In searching for a comparable, the player that immediately sprung to my mind is an ex-Blue Jacket: Jack Skille.

Skille, of course, was drafted much higher (7th over-all in 2005 by Chicago), and had established himself as a fringe-NHLer long before Zaar was drafted. But going back into the history books, their AHL rookie seasons are strikingly similar:

Skille had first round pedigree to his name, and certainly was not drafted thinking that he’d be a shot machine with little else to his game, but in the end, that’s what he became. Both Skille and Zaar are in similar boats defensively, too, as even though they generate a decent amount of shot attempts for their teams, they’re still generally on the wrong end of the shot battle and will see more chances go against them than for them.

One thing is for sure, though: Zaar ending up along the same career path as Skille would be considered a major win for the Blue Jackets and their scouts. In my eyes, Zaar has a good shot of playing NHL games at some point in 2016/17. He’s also going to be counted on as a major contributor to the Monsters offense. Skille followed up his 16 goal, 34 point rookie season with a 20 goal campaign. If Zaar can continue on that similar path and that upward trend, he is due for a big season.