The likelihood of the Jackets making the play-offs this year is roughly 0.19% as of today. That’s… not promising, to be nice. The team is 13 points behind the Rangers for the second wild card spot, with four teams to jump. Let’s face it: it’s not happening.
That isn’t a reason to begin selling the farm, however. Most of the Jackets “core” players are signed for reasonable long-term deals, and for the top-end of the roster, there aren’t really any prospects knocking down doors to take their spots. The main goal for any deadline deals should be depth players being moved out for picks, or in the case of a core player being traded, having it be for an upgrade at a position of need.
In the HERO Graphs analysis posts for forwards and defensemen, I summarized that the two main areas of concern for the Jackets should be a top six right wing, and a top pairing (or at the very least top four) right shooting defenseman. In these next couple of posts I will attempt to identify some players who could fill those key roles. There also may be larger targets singled out who could replace current roster players at a similar cost but do the job at a higher level.
Today we’ll look at defenseman candidates.
The Jackets defense group is relatively deep and features a decent balance of RD and LD. The concern is that there are no players able to grasp the role as a number one. In the analysis of the Jackets defense I repeated a phrase a few times: “(player) has a place on the team, but it’s as a bottom pairing defender”. That’s the thing with depth: just because you have a bunch of mediocre players capable of playing 10-12 minutes a night doesn’t mean you have a GOOD TEAM. Defense by committee may be a legitimate strategy, but it’s not destined for success when there isn’t a single player capable of adequately handling the opposition’s top players.
WSH MIKE GREEN
2014/15 stats: 42GP, 5 G 26 A (4 G 12 A at 5v5), 53.7% Score Adj Corsi, 101.2 PDO
Green may not ever reach 30 goals or 76 points again, but he remains one of the top point scoring defenders in the league, and someone who’s all-around game puts him squarely as a top pairing defender. Since the 2012/13 season, Green is ninth out of 101 players in points/60 on the powerplay and 13th in points/60 at even strength among the 256 defenders with more than 500 minutes of even strength ice time. When we factor in the underrated defensive game (as illustrated by Green’s HERO chart above), we end up with a top pairing right shooting defender, which is exactly what Columbus needs. He does come with some warts, as he’s battled injuries over the past few seasons, but they’re warts well worth taking a flyer on.
With the news coming out on Monday that it would be “shocking” to see Mike Green finish the season with the Caps, it makes perfect sense that the Jackets should be at the very least heavily interested and quick to inquire about the 29 year old’s services. Green is an impending UFA, which would make trading for him tricky: you’re going to give up major assets to get him, even as a rental, and does it make sense for a non-play-off team like the Jackets to do so? Sensibly, the answer should be no. But in not taking on that risk, and trying to sign Green as a UFA in the off-season, you leave yourselves open to another team swooping in at the deadline for a trade, and then working out an extension with him.
ARI OLIVER EKMAN-LARSSON
2014/15 stats: 48 GP, 13 G 10 A total (3 G 9 A at 5v5), 50.7% Score Adj Corsi, 97.4 PDO
OEL fits the criteria in that he’s a capable first pairing defender who can help at both ends of the ice, but mainly in the defensive zone, which is the major weakness on the Jackets defense. He has a long-term contract that runs for four years after this one, at an average cap hit of $5.5 million. He is a lefty, but one who has enough talent that he could potentially prop up another top four defender to make a serviceable first pairing. Over the last three seasons, Ekman-Larsson has a 50.4% Score Adjusted Corsi, and a PDO hovering right around 100, and 42 5v5 points in 176 games. An ideal partner for him on the Jackets would be James Wisniewski: both are decent to excellent offensively, and Ekman-Larsson has both the speed and defensive awareness to make up for what Wisniewski may lack in those departments.
Obviously OEL is not going to come cheap, but the Jackets almost assuredly have the pieces to get a deal done. Does Arizona want good, young-ish roster players with cheaper deals? Jack Johnson fits the bill, as he isn’t due to make more than $5m/yr for the remainder of his contract, while OEL’s deal jumps to $6m, $6m, $6.5m and $7m in the next four seasons. It also gives the impression that it’s a swap of top defenders. I would also eagerly throw in at least one other major non-roster component to ensure that this deal gets done.
MIN JARED SPURGEON
2014/15 stats: 41 GP, 7 G 8 A total (5 G 6 A at 5v5), 56.4% Score Adj Corsi, 98.7 PDO
Jared Spurgeon is a sneaky good RD who plays with first pairing ability on a team using him as a second pairing guy. He’s controlled play at a 53.9% clip over the past three seasons, with a PDO right about average. He puts up some points at even strength (33 in 147 games) and has a great first pass and solid defensive awareness. The knock on him is that he’s very small (listed as 5’9″, 175) and thus isn’t exactly a “physical” guy who would be lauded for playing BLUE JACKETS HOCKEY. However, he should easily be able to assume duties as a first pairing RD and produce at a strong level.
Spurgeon makes $2.9m this season and is due to hit $3.6m next year before reaching RFA status. He slots in as the third defender on the Wild depth chart, which is about to get significantly more expensive, with long-term deals for Jonas Brodin and Marco Scandella set to kick in next season. Due to this, Spurgeon may be an attractive trade piece, but with his low profile may not fetch the kind of reward a more well-known defender like Ekman-Larsson would. Perhaps Minnesota sees a guy like Savard, who has two seasons of “top four minutes”, and his $1.3m deal and RFA status as an enticing option to replace Spurgeon. Obviously more would need to be added from Columbus’ side, and a collection of draft picks or a high-end prospect might sweeten the pot enough to make it happen.
VAN CHRIS TANEV
2014/15 stats: 47 GP, 2 G 11 A total (1 G 4 A at 5v5), 54.8% Score Adj Corsi, 99.7 PDO
Tanev is similar to Spurgeon in that he’s not a guy a lot of people will point to as a “can’t miss” player, but he’s incredibly effective at his role. He is a strong defensive player who puts up points at a low-second unit rate. Would he be an ideal candidate for a top line role? While his offensive game probably isn’t up to snuff, putting him into a role where he can play with a more offensively inclined player should help boost his scoring rates while still allowing a solid defensive game to shine through.
Tanev is one of five RFAs on the Canucks this year and should receive a decent to large raise on his $2m salary. He will also likely be very difficult to acquire, as Vancouver covets him in his role and don’t have anyone chomping at the bit to assume his minutes. While I’d like to see him in the Union blue, it may not make sense for either team to make the trade.
CAR ANDREJ SEKERA
2014/15 stats: 46 GP, 1 G 14 A total (1 G 8 A at 5v5), 52.1% Score Adj Corsi, 97.4 PDO
Andrej Sekera is the kind of under-the-radar good defender the Jackets should be targeting. Sekera is able to assume top pairing minutes and be a primary puck-mover. He doesn’t put up a ton of even strength points (42 total in 157 games over the past three seasons) and isn’t a top powerplay unit guy, but he’s a quietly capable left shooting defender. If the price is right, he’s someone to jump on as a trade target, or take a chance on as a UFA, where he’ll likely get upwards of $5m a year for at least four years. To acquire Sekera, Carolina is likely hoping to receive a first round pick or a top prospect. I would be weary of trading anything of significance for Sekera without first being given the ability to negotiate a potential extension with him. Failing that, he should be a top UFA target for Columbus on July 1.
TOR CODY FRANSON
2014/15 stats: 48 GP, 6 G 23 A total (2 G 12 A at 5v5), 46.5% Score Adj Corsi, 100.7 PDO
Franson is probably not a guy I’d rush out to trade for, but he should make it to this summer’s UFA feeding frenzy. He has top pairing offensive output and is a good passer with a heavy shot. His defense isn’t great, but it’s good enough to use him as a top pairing guy. The concerns over Franson are two-fold: one) he’s not really a good skater and can get beat by speedy forwards, and two) he’s going to cost a ton at the deadline and probably even more on UFA day. Is he the kind of guy who deserves number one defender money? One could argue yes, but it’s a massive gamble as he’s been stuck in the awful systems of Toronto for long enough that his true worth may be difficult to discern.
OTHER POTENTIAL TARGETS
ANA Francois Beauchemin
Beauchemin is one of the few Ducks defenders with a positive Corsi over the past couple of seasons, and he still produces at a high second pairing clip. However his age and years of abuse are taking their toll and his play is slowly declining. He would likely be a very short term improvement on Jack Johnson, but that’s not nearly enough to justify moving an LD to make room for him.
NJD Adam Larsson
Larsson is a very good defensive defender who can put up points at a low-second unit rate. New Jersey’s new coaching staff seems to like him a lot more than ex-coach Pete DeBoer did, however, which probably means that the likelihood of him being dealt just took a massive nosedive.
PIT Simon Despres/Brian Dumoulin/Scott Harrington/Derrick Pouliot
Boy, does it ever suck seeing the Penguins having Ehrhoff, Letang, Maatta and FOUR GOOD PROSPECT DMEN. Fortunately, Pittsburgh chooses not to actively play any of them! Wouldn’t it be nice if the Jackets nabbed one? Despres would be the big fish here, as he’s already got top four production and shot suppression (and he’s only getting better), while the other three could potentially step in and play bottom-three minutes today. The only reason they don’t get more love here is that the latter three haven’t played enough minutes for me to accurately say that they’d be major improvements on the Jackets current defensive corps, and while Despres has been jerked around a lot by the organization, he’s definitely thought of as a future stud and thus is unlikely to be moved without serious overpayment.
ARI Keith Yandle
Like Ekman-Larsson, Yandle is rumoured to be available for the right price. He’s got a relatively hefty contract which is expiring next season. His style of game is all-out offense, with below average shot suppression skills, and he’s also an LD. While he’d be an improvement on Johnson or Tyutin, his style of play may not be a fit with the rest of the team.
ARI Zbynek Michalek
Michalek has an expiring $4m contract and will probably be had for a similar cap hit on the UFA market, but his age and injury-ravaged body prevent him from being a real target for Columbus. He does still possess high-end shot suppression ability with an underrated ability to move the puck. On a UFA contract, he may be worth a one or two year deal, but it’s a risky proposition.
MTL Nathan Beaulieu/Jarred Tinordi
Montreal seems to be intent on ensuring that neither Beaulieu nor Tinordi stick with their big club consistently, which may be paving the way for one to be available via trade. However, both shoot left and though they could potentially improve the CBJ defense immediately, risking moving a more proven commodity to make room for them may not be wise.
MTL Tom Gilbert
Gilbert is a solid all-around RD who played very well on Florida’s top pairing a couple seasons ago, and has done well when given a shot in Montreal’s top four. He could be a trade target if the aforementioned Beaulieu or Tinordi finally “earn” top four spots, and while having the flexibility to use Wisniewski/Gilbert/Prout/Goloubef as a top four RD sounds good, he may not be skilled enough for the role.
CONCLUSION
Bring me Jared Spurgeon, Mike Green or Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and I’ll bring you a play-off team.
– Jeremy
Follow me on twitter, @307x
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