Ceci a “Blocking Point” in Drouin Trade Negotiatons, Cowen and Michalek notes

During last night’s ‘Hockey Night in Canada’ broadcast, Sportsnet’s Damien Cox reflected on prospective Jonathan Drouin trade scenarios before elaborating on the Senators’ trade discussions with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

“A number of teams are still looking at (Jonathan Drouin), of course and one of them is the Ottawa Senators. There have been talks between Bryan Murray and Steve Yzerman over a possible, ‘What would it take to make a Drouin deal?’ What the Senators are saying is they don’t want to give up Cody Ceci as part of a package. They are 29^th in team defence. They’ve got lots of issues on the back end and they now know that Mikael Wikstrand – the Swedish defenceman who has joined Farjestad – he’s not going to be back, so right now, Ceci is a blocking point. Also, Ottawa is at their budget limit. They can’t really add a whole lot in terms of salary.”

I don’t know what metric Cox is referring to when he states the Senators are 29^th in team defence, but in looking at five-on-five metrics, the Senators have the third-lowest Corsi For percentage (46.6) in the NHL and the third-lowest percentage of scoring chances generated (46.0). No team allows more shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time than Ottawa’s 31.7.

Courtesy of the excellent HockeyViz.com, the Senators entered the day with an incredibly small chance of reaching the postseason.

Taking that eight-percent chance into account and knowing how porous the Senators’ blue line is, it is bizarre to think the Senators would refuse to package Ceci simply because their blue line is a significant team weakness right now.

There are  a lot of Senators fans who look at Ceci as having safe, projectable upside strictly because of the combination of his age, pedigree and physical tools, but after the better part of three seasons in the NHL, it’s hard not to question how safely projectable his upside actually is.

It’s hard to ignore the fact that Ceci’s development has stagnated.

As much as some fans want to pin the blame on him being rushed to the NHL, his inexperienced defensive partners, his crappy defensive partners or the organization simply using him in a role that he was and is not ready for,  the past cannot be unwritten.

Projecting out, if Senators management feels more confidently in Drouin’s long-term upside than they do Ceci’s, they should pull the trigger, irrespective of whatever short-term weakness is present. Considering how poorly Ceci has played this season, supplanting his minutes shouldn’t be too difficult simply because of how low his replacement value is and if the team isn’t going to reach the postseason, the Senators can worry about addressing the blue line later in the offseason.

Of course, if the organization is leaking information in hopes of improving their bargaining power or  boosting Ceci’s perceived trade value, then Cox’s comments make a lot more sense.

Milan Michalek Out Indefinitely

After blocking a shot in Ottawa’s 5-2 loss to the Islanders on Friday night, Senators forward Milan Michalek will on the sidelines indefinitely with a broken hand.

Right now, there is no estimated time of return because Michalek’s break may necessitate undergoing surgery.

For a team that has not only tested its forward depth, but struggled to identify which forwards to allocate more ice time to, Michalek’s injury is a significant blow, especially since he actually had a small measure of success playing alongside Bobby Ryan and Mika Zibanejad.

Through the first half of the season, the performance of the team’s second and third lines were of concern. Although the second line has been relatively productive thanks in a large part to a ridiculously high on-ice shooting percentage, Zibanejad and Ryan have struggled territorially by failing to tilt the ice in the Senators’ favour.

Since Michalek returned from his previous injury – a broken finger in the same hand that is affecting him now – the second line’s underlying numbers (via Puckalytics.com) improved markedly.

It’s an incredibly small sample size, but at this stage of the season when the team really needs whatever boost the second and third lines can get, losing Michalek hurts. Maybe his absence will create more of an opportunity for a player like Shane Prince, but after 40-plus games, it feels like all the clamouring for giving Prince more responsibilities and better linemates has gone by the wayside.

The Senators Won’t Buy Out Cowen?

In Bruce Garrioch’s latest for the Ottawa Sun, he asks the question of whether or not the Senators will trade Jared Cowen.

After describing how injuries have negatively impacted Cowen’s development, Garrioch goes on to mention that the Senators have given Cowen every opportunity to take hold of a job and run with it.

It feels like the relationship between Cowen and the Senators is drawing to a conclusion, but Garrioch notes fans shouldn’t expect it to come in the form of a buyout.

“The Senators could buy him out at one-third of the deal — the way they did with former goalie Ray Emery — but the reality is that’s not going to happen.”

Bruce never really gets into the reason(s) behind why he doesn’t believe the Senators would buy Cowen out, but a buyout does make a ton of sense.

Had the Senators bought Cowen out last summer as TSN’s Scott Cullen first suggested, it would have saved the organization almost $5.5-million. The Senators can still elect to buy Cowen out this summer at one-third the cost of the $4.5-million in real dollars that will still be owed. Such a move would cost the Senators $1.5-million or $750,000 in each of the next two years equalling savings of $3-million.

If the Senators aren’t going to buy out Cowen, they have to make a trade that benefits them more than being able to re-allocate the $3.75 million in real dollars they would save from buying Cowen out. (Note: a buy-out would save the Senators $3.75 million in 2016-17, but cost them $750,000 in 2017-18.)

Ideally, the Senators could benefit by trading Cowen and saving all of the money that’s outstanding on his contract while being able to acquire inexpensive prospects or draft picks, but I wouldn’t be surprised see the Senators want a warm body in return or have to eat a bad contract in return.

A few people have linked the Senators to the Flames of late, and in looking at their roster, it’s hard not to ignore a player like Ladislav Smid. He’s a Bryan Murray draft pick from his Anaheim days and in an attempt to move Dany Heatley to the Edmonton Oilers, Smid was one of the players who was supposed to be part of the return coming back to Ottawa.

Other News and Notes:

Ron MacLean and Don Cherry discussed how star players should never play on the penalty kill during ‘Coaches Corner’ last night. Take note, Erik Karlsson detractors.