The Celtics offense showed signs of life last Friday against the Wizards following a few underwhelming performances. Still, the offense ranks in the middle of the pack to start the season. The defense has picked the team up, ranking in the top 10 to start the year.
Neither of these rankings are a fluke. After the all-star break last year, the Celtics sported top 10 defense and an offense that was middle of the road. In examining the roster, the Celtics probably don’t have enough offensive firepower to break into the top 10. Isaiah Thomas is the team’s most consistent scorer, but is still probably better suited coming off the bench and destroying opposing second units.
The Celtics offensive ceiling is not very high. They will have to rely on their defense on most nights and hope that it’s good enough to win. Often times it will be, but making minor improvements to maximize offensive efficiency will be key. In order to win at a pace the team did after the all-star break last season, Brad Stevens will need to squeeze as many points as possible out of the offense.
Limiting Turnovers
The best way for the Celtics to do that is to do a better job taking care of the basketball. The most significant change the team made last year following the all-star break was becoming elite at taking care of the ball. With the addition of Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder and others, the Cs success in the turnover department often went overlooked. The team’s struggles out of the gate have provided a reminder of how important it is to value each possession, especially on a team lacking offensive firepower.
Prior to the all-star break last season, the Celtics had a turnover ratio of 14.3, good for just outside of the top ten in the league. That’s a number most coaches would be happy with, even if the offense only ranked 23rd in the league with 101 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com.
Following the all-star break, the Celtics became one of the elite teams in taking care of the basketball. Despite playing at one of the fastest paces in the league, the Celtics had the third lowest turnover ratio in the NBA. While many of the team’s other offensive numbers stayed the same, including multiple shooting percentage measurements, turnovers are where the Celtics made the biggest stride. Cutting down on turnovers allowed the Celtics to squeeze out those few extra points a game that, along with a stingy defense, helped a 20-31 team go 20-11 down the stretch. The offensive efficiency went from 23rd to 16th in the league with a net rating of 2.9 post all-star break.
While the increase may seem insignificant, every point carries extra weight for a team that was just -.4 points worse than opponents per 100 possessions last season. This season, the Celtics have struggled mightily to take care of the basketball. Their turnover percentage has jumped from 13.1 post all-star break to 16.3 to start the season, a mark that ranks in the bottom ten in the league.
Why have the Cs struggled to take care of the ball? Part of the issue is that Brad Stevens is still figuring out his rotations. As he figures out what combinations work best, the players are also adjusting to playing with new teammates. Like anything else, adjustments take time.
But the bigger factor is the Celtics pace. Boston is averaging a league high 105.33 possessions per game to start the season, a mark that would have led the league last season by a significant margin (about five possessions) and one that is also significantly faster than the team played at last year (98.24 post all-star break).
The faster pace has served the Celtics well. For a team that often struggles to score in the half court, they have been able to speed up opponents and force a league high 20.8 turnovers per game, leading to 24.8 points per game off turnovers, also a league best. Even with their own turnover struggles, the Celtics are averaging 6.6 more points off of turnovers a game than their opponent. That speaks to how well the defense has played.
It also speaks to how good this offense can be if they can limit their turnovers. 20.8 forced turnovers per game is a huge jump from last season when the team forced 15.1 turnovers per game and averaged only 1.1 more points off of turnovers than opponents. A jump to a +6.6 point differential in the turnover column is huge for the Celtics, a team designed to create offense off of their defense. That differential could increase even further if the Celtics are able to settle in on offense, adjust to playing at a faster pace, and cut down on their turnovers.
The Need for Improved Shooting
Since the beginning of last season, the Celtics have tried to address a major weakness and add shooting. While inconsistent shooting still plagues the team at times, the Celtics can now adequately space the floor with both their guards and bigs. Accounting for the additions the Celtics made during last season, adding Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerbeko to Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger gives the Celtics four big men capable of stepping out and knocking down a jump shot, while the additions of Isaiah Thomas and RJ Hunter to the guard position gives the Cs two knock down spot up shooters.
After two games of starting traditional big men David Lee and Tyler Zeller, Stevens quickly switched to bigs who are better at spacing the floor. He has also shown the willingness to go small some, playing Jerebko at the four in some bench lineups. Having as much shooting on the floor as possible is key for the Celtics, especially their two point guards.
By now, it is clear that Isaiah Thomas thrives in lineups with good floor spacing. The extra space allows Thomas to slash into the lane and finish, get to the foul line or find teammates for open looks. But spacing is equally important for Marcus Smart. In his rookie season, the two players Smart was most successful playing with were Kelly Olynyk and Jonas Jerebko, according to Basketball Reference. In lineups featuring Smart and Olynyk, the Celtics outscored opponents by 13.3 points per 100 possessions while Smart and Jerebko outscored opponents by 14.7 points. For comparison, lineups with Smart and Tyler Zeller were outscored by .4 points per 100 possessions, while lineups with Sullinger, who can’t space the floor quite as well as Olynyk or Jerebko, were only 5.8 points better than opponents.
Playing Smart with players who can space the floor will be key to his success. Because both of the Celtics wing options (Crowder and Turner) are below average shooters, playing him with bigs who can step out and hit jump shots is a necessity. It’s difficult to expect him to get in the lane, create for others and draw fouls consistently in a lineup with two traditional bigs and a small forward who is not a great shooter.
Adding shooting to a lineup helps everyone on the floor. Given the lack of shooting on the wing, I’d expect Stevens to play Johnson, Olynyk, Jerebko and Sullinger more than Lee and Zeller. All four of those guys have been solid defenders to start the season and provide a necessary added boost to the offense. At the guard position, I expect Hunter’s ability to knock down shots will garner him a role sooner rather than later. As long as he can hang in there defensively, it won’t be long before Hunter cracks the rotation on a consistent basis.
Player development will also be key for the Celtics shooting success. The Cs expect improvements from Smart, Bradley, Sullinger and Olynyk in their 3 point percentages this season. If two or three of the four are able to notably increase their efficiency from 3, the Celtics offensive output will increase along with it.
Conclusion
There is reason for optimism with the Celtics offense. For a team that was elite in taking care of the ball at the end of last season, improving their current bottom ten ranking in turnover percentage is only a matter of time. As the players get use to one another and the team gets acclimated to playing at such a high pace, turnovers will decrease. If the Celtics defense is able to capitalize on the small adjustments they made in the offseason to produce more turnovers, that will be even more added offense the team did not see last season.
The last piece of the puzzle, and biggest question mark with this team, is their shooting. If the players listed above are able to improve their 3-point percentages, the Celtics offensive ceiling will increase drastically.
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