I’m not feeling good about Boston’s chances tonight against the Wizards. Why should I? They are 0-4 in Washington this season.
In a fantastic column, Zach Lowe breaks down the series and specifically examines the Wizards aggressive defense on Isaiah Thomas:
But in general, this is a hyper-aggressive scheme, and I’m not sure it can work now that Boston has absorbed the initial shock and awe of it. Horford is too good a playmaker, and all of Boston’s perimeter guys, save Smart, can knock down open 3s. Even in Game 4, they were beginning to pass their way to open looks…
What was random in Game 4 became systematic in Game 5: Boston players cut almost every time their man crashed on Thomas.
That may have a chilling effect on Washington’s defense Friday night. If you know your guy is creeping behind you, you might think twice about swarming Thomas. If you think twice about anything in the NBA, you’re generally toast.
But most of Boston’s lineups have enough collective passing and shooting to defang the current scheme. I just don’t think Washington can win the next two games playing like this, unless Boston coughs up a heap of turnovers — an intended result of Washington’s amped-up pressure that killed Boston in Games 3 and 4.
Lowe believes Boston can win on the road, provided they clean up the turnovers or rebounding.
After reading Lowe’s column, I’m starting to build some faith in the Celtics winning tonight. There’s also this, via Matt Moore of CBS:
Teams are 0-10 in elimination games at home in these playoffs. Think about that. Not one team has taken the series back to the other team’s place when faced with the edge of oblivion. It’s hard to believe that will continue to be the case, but sometimes the playoffs do follow certain trends. And just as momentum seemed to shift when the Spurs found a way to win Game 5 against the Rockets in miraculous fashion, the Celtics’ blowout victory in Game 5 might have taken the Wizards to a place where they just don’t feel they can win. Energy is a funny mechanism, and it’s largely inexplicable. If Washington doesn’t come out and absolutely blow the doors off Boston in the first half, it’s not going to get out of this one. Boston is going to smell blood in the water.
Hmm…
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