Prior to every season, we take a look at how the Indians stack up against their AL Central division foes as well as the Reds with an added bonus this year of the Cubs. Since things change quickly in baseball, we’ll take another look at all of these as the season progresses, starting with Cincinnati as the Tribe goes to Cincy for two before playing two more in Cleveland from May 22nd through the 25th. The original article is in italics with new information looking more like this.
Thanks to an unbalanced schedule, the Indians play their division foes in the Central more often than any other team in baseball, so every year Burning River Baseball takes the time to evaluate how the Tribe match up against each team in the AL Central. To start things off, however, we always look at a National League team, the Reds, who the Indians share a state and a Spring Training stadium with.
Ever since the Reds joined the Indians in Goodyear, Arizona in 2010, the two teams have opened each season against each other, usually with a three game set, and ended against each other. This year, the World Baseball Classic has mixed up the normal schedule, but the Indians first game will still be against Cincinnati tomorrow and their final game of Spring will be considered a road game against the Reds on March 29th. While the two teams will play just three times total this Spring, they will also play their normal home and home during the regular season, four games from May 22nd through the 26th. With this in mind, let’s get to know our neighbors to the South. The Indians went 2-1 vs Cincinnati this Spring.
Starting Pitching
Last year, the Reds starting pitching staff ranked 30th in fWAR and FIP while the Indians ranked 8th and 7th respectively. The Reds have improved, but still rank 30th in fWAR and FIP in 2017. Indians rank 28th in ERA, but 8th in fWAR and first in xFIP. The Indians will be returning their entire starting rotation with the hopes of avoiding the injuries that cost them a considerable amount of starts from Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar. So far, so good except a short stint by Corey Kluber. The Reds will be returning top starter, Anthony Desclafini (Or not. A UCL sprain has placed Desclafini on the 60 Day DL and he is yet to pitch this year), but recently traded their second most effective starter, Dan Straily, to Miami for a trio of prospects (4.22 FIP and leads the NL in H/9, so they aren’t really missing him). Obviously, the Reds aren’t planning on contending in an NL Central with the Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates (or are they? Currently stand 4.5 back in at just two games under .500), so this was probably the right move, but for the second year in a row, it will be difficult for them to field a full rotation. The Reds have used nine starters already this year, with Bradon Finnegan and Homer Bailey joining Desclafini on the DL.
On a positive note, last year’s top prospect, Robert Stephenson, will likely pitch his first full season (he has since been moved to the bullpen where he has struggled) and Homer Bailey could possibly have an injury free year (oops), giving the Reds four regular starters. They’ve actually had three regular starters, Scott Feldman, Amir Garrett and Bronson Arroyo, but only the first has been any kind of successful. This, however, includes Brandon Finnigan, who has been more effective out of the bullpen so far in his young career and hopes that Desclafini’s ERA will be closer to his 3.26 of 2016 than his 3.96 FIP. Injuries killed this hope, but Finnigan was pitching very well before getting hurt. In all, it will be another rough year for the Reds rotation while the Indians look to ride theirs to another AL Central title.
Advantage: Indians
Current Advantage: Even More Indians
Defense
The Reds will be returning essentially their entire starting line-up from 2016 and it wasn’t terrible defensively as one of 13 teams that saved more runs than average. They ranked 12th of those, however, and nearly all of that came from three positions, Billy Hamilton in center, Zach Cozart at short and Tucker Barnhart behind the plate. The Reds are currently the best defense in all of baseball by seven runs and it’s been a much more evenly split between Barnhart, Eugenio Suarez, Cozart, Hamilton and the recently recovered Devon Mesoraco. One improvement made last year was replacing Jay Bruce with Scott Schebler mid season and, while Schebler is no Gold Glover (either is Adam Duvall), it still made a big difference. Schebler is still not a Gold Glover, but is still slightly better than league average making him much better than Bruce. Duvall has also been a positive defender in left.
Initially, it looked as if second could be a problem spot defensively with the aging Brandon Phillips, but his trade to Atlanta freed up the position for short stop Jose Peraza to move over and it now should be a positive. Peraza has been slightly above average defensively and significantly better than Phillips in 2017. This also keeps him out of the outfield, where he is not quite as valuable. Joey Votto is still an issue at first base, but his offensive production that places him among the top hitters in baseball makes any lapses in the field more than worth it. Votto has been the Reds worst regular defender worth -0.5 runs.
For the Tribe, who ranked fifth in defensive runs saved in 2016 (now ranked 18th), the all three infield starters who are above average defensively will be returning and Edwin Encarnacion is at least a lateral move defensively from Mike Napoli (it’s actually been Santana and he’s been an improvement). Where problems could arise is in the outfield. This statement should win prediction of the year. Without Rajai Davis, the Indians lack any stand out defender (depending on how you view Lonnie Chisenhall) and could be in trouble if they are expecting much out of Michael Brantley in left or Tyler Naquin in center. With the exception of Brandon Guyer in right, every Indians outfielder has been either at or below average defensively. Like the Reds, the answer for the Indians could be a young player, in this case Bradley Zimmer who would be a huge improvement in center, possibly making up for Brantley’s lack of range. He’s only played a couple games, but this looks extremely true at the moment. In the end, this is largely a question of which team’s elite defender, Francisco Lindor or Billy Hamilton, is the best and at the moment that player is 2016 Platinum Glove winner, Lindor.
Advantage: Indians
Current Advantage: Reds as Hamilton takes the lead over Lindor
Relief Pitching
If you recall the 43 runs scored by the Indians against the Reds in their 2016 four game set, you may remember that 20 of those runs came against the bullpen. Like their starting staff, the Reds relievers finished 30th in baseball in relief fWAR and FIP. In fact, they were the only team in baseball to have a negative relief fWAR and they were worth -3.6 wins while the Indians were worth positive five and ranked 7th in baseball. Some things change while others stay the same. The Indians still have the best bullpen in the AL, but the Reds have improved dramatically. They now rank 14th in MLB and have had an overall positive performance.
Of course, these teams are not competing in 2016, but in 2017 and both made significant improvements during the season. In the second half, the Reds bumped that relief WAR to 0.1 and the Indians to 3.3. For the Tribe, this was largely because of the addition of Andrew Miller (3.0 fWAR) who makes the Indians bullpen better than the Reds by himself, even before considering Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw and Dan Otero. For the Reds, the improvement was more subtle, but largely stemmed from Raisel Iglesias moving into the bullpen along side a few other former starters in Michael Lorenzen and Tony Cingrani. Iglesias has been nearly perfect in 2017 and Wandy Peralta and Drew Storen haven’t been far behind. Cingrani was great before hitting the DL and another starter being used in relief, Cody Reed, has been great.
In all, the Reds bullpen has nowhere to go but up and losing J.J. Hoover to the Diamondbacks through free agency should be worth at least one more win than last year on it’s own. Hoover hasn’t been terrible this year, but not great either. He’s lowered his FIP by nearly six runs and ERA by more than ten. They are definitely moving in the right direction, but the Indians have the best bullpen in baseball. Still accurate.
Advantage: Indians
Current Advantage: Indians, but it’s a lot closer than it was.
Offense
This is unquestionably the Reds strong point. Now their strongest point is defense, but they are the eighth best team offensively in the Majors. Votto is as good as any hitter in baseball (at least the human ones [still accurate]) and Duvall had a breakout season last year as he made his first All-Star appearance. Peraza and Schebler (Schebler and Duvall each already have nine home runs) gave reason for hope and Billy Hamilton is coming off his best offensive season, improving his OBP to a career high .321, which makes him much more dangerous as he can use his legs much more often. He has 21 steals already in 2017!
However, the only returning player worth more than five runs offensively was Votto (45) and the Reds were still just the 21st best offensive team in baseball, even with a half season of Bruce. Votto, Cozart and Suarez are all already worth more than five runs while Schebler, Mesoraco and Duvall are close. The Indians, on the other hand, were fourth best and second in the AL to only Boston. While they didn’t have a 40 run player, they had two 25 run players (Carlos Santana and Jose Ramirez) and two more worth more than 14 (Jason Kipnis and Naquin). Currently, Lindor, Ramirez, Brantley, Gomes and Chisenhall have been notable. Even Lindor was worth more than ten runs over the average hitter and they just added another 20+ run player in Encarnacion. Not yet, in any fashion as he’s been a negative offensive performer. While the Reds offense is entirely centered around their first baseman, the Indians should field a line-up day in and out that features at least seven reliable hitters. Or fourish. If Brantley is healthy and Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez improve over last year (half of this has happened), the Indians could absolutely match the Red Sox and Cubs for the best offense in baseball. At the moment, there doesn’t seem to be another team within the reach of these three in terms of offensive prowess. The Reds are likely to fall in the bottom third in baseball again. Or not.
Advantage: Indians
Current Advantage: Slightly Reds, for now.
Overall
You didn’t need me to tell you that the Indians, who won the American League last year, went to game seven in the World Series and are returning nearly their entire roster including multiple players (Carrasco, Salazar, Gomes, Brantley, etc) who missed considerable time with injury will be better than the Reds, who will pick second in the 2017 draft and are also returning nearly all of their players. It’s a lot closer than we thought it would be.
However, the Reds will be significantly better in 2017 than they were in at least three of the four categories listed above (huge understatement). Much will depend on young players coming up for the first time in Cincinnati, but there is at least a little hope for the bright future. In addition, one way the Reds far outrank the Indians in 2017 is in draft picks, where they will pick 2nd, 32nd and 38th overall while the Indians first pick is 64th. If the Reds make good use of those picks, can continue to make trades like the one for Straily, they could definitely turn this thing around before Votto’s contract expires in 2024.
Advantage: Indians
Current Advantage: Still Tribe, but less so.
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