Central Division Showdown: Cincinnati Reds

In general, whenever we say the Central Division on Burning River Baseball we mean the American League Central, but for our series looking into how well the Indians match-up against the teams they will play the most in 2016 we’ll ease into things with a look at the team the Indians will play the most often in March. Since the two teams share a stadium, the beautiful Goodyear Ballpark in Goodyear, Arizona, it is a matter of convenience that they will play six times in March including each of the first three games of the Spring season.

The two teams are on opposite ends of the contention window as the Indians are primed for another long AL Central chase while the Reds are three years separated from their last play-off opportunity. Both teams had pretty quiet off-seasons, but what little the Indians did only added while the Reds traded off some of the few pieces they had left after the 2015 in Aroldis Chapman and Todd Frazier. They know they will likely finish in last in the Central this year, so their entire season may seem a lot like Spring Training with a few innings of Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips and a whole lot of minor leaguers trying to prove themselves.

Starting Pitchers

The Indians are going to have the advantage in starting pitching against almost any team in baseball this year and definitely against all those in the AL Central. No matter who fills the final two spots, Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin and Cody Anderson would all be at worst the second best pitcher on the Reds roster, behind only Homer Bailey who missed all of 2015 with Tommy John surgery. There is a good chance that between Bailey, Anthony DeSclafani and Raisel Iglesias, the Reds will have at least two starters they can depend on, but beyond that it will be a long season. For a positive, the Reds acquired some interesting young starters last year, including the Royals’ Brandon Finnegan and there should be some entertainment value in discovering which of these are worth a spot in future rotations.

Advantage: Indians

Defense

Last season, the Indians transformed from one of the worst teams in baseball to one of the best by switching out Nick Swisher (RF), Lonnie Chisenhall (3B) and Jose Ramirez (SS) for Chisenhall (RF), Giovanny Urshela (3B) and Francisco Lindor (SS). According to FanGraphs, this amounted to 23 runs saved above average for the season, good enough for third in baseball while the Reds allowed 18 more than average for 22nd. Adding Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis this off-season should only help the defense even more as will a full season of Lindor at short. Unlike the Indians, however, the Reds may have made their defense worse this off-season. Last year, their top infielder was Frazier who is now on the White Sox. He has been replaced by last year’s short stop, Eugenio Suarez which will likely be at least a slight drop off. For those who will be retaining their jobs from 2015, Jay Bruce and Votto were among the worst at their positions defensively last year and Phillips is another year older after posting his worst defensive season since 2006.

Advantage: Indians

Relief Pitching

With Chapman and J.J. Hoover, the Reds relievers were the only part of the team that could have been compared similarly to the Indians by the end of last season and man who kept that group interesting is now a New York Yankee. Instead, the Reds bullpen looks to be filled with Hoover, a few failed starters in Tony Cingrani and Michael Lorenzen and a few relievers who fared poorly last year, Carlos Contreras and Jumbo Diaz. Listed on top of the Reds depth chart is Robert Stephenson, a top prospect who is yet to make his MLB debut after posting a 3.83 ERA across AA and AAA last year. Compared to this, Indians fans should be pretty comfortable with Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw and a mix of old (Zach McAllister and Jeff Manship) and the new (Shawn Armstrong and Giovanni Soto). In all, there isn’t a single member of the Reds bullpen who I would take over the Indians top six relievers.

Advantage: Indians

Offense

The weakest part of the Indians team going into 2016 is the offense, but even with the weak offense of 2015, they outscored the Reds 669 to 640. Here is where off-season moves will make the biggest difference as the Indians fixed some of their weaknesses against left handed pitching by adding Napoli and Davis and will not be losing a single regular player. On the other side, the Reds lost Frazier and Phillips is nearing the end of his effective seasons. While Votto was an MVP candidate last year and could be again this year, he can’t score enough on his own to surmount the incredible amount of runs that the pitching staff is likely to allow.

Advantage: Indians

Overall

The Indians may not have had a great off-season and may or may not be the favorites to win the division let alone the AL pennant, but a look towards the south does not raise pangs of jealousy. The Reds were one loss away from having the first overall draft pick in 2016 and they could be even worse this season. Expect near 100 losses next year while 3/5ths of the NL Central competes for play-off spots. You could say that the Reds are where the Indians were after blowing up the team between 2008 and 2009, but it is more like if they had tried to keep the 1990’s going by signing Jim Thome to a huge deal and not trading Bartolo Colon.

While it may have helped them win in 2003, the 2007 run likely would have never happened and they could still be feeling some of the financial effects. Given that Votto is guaranteed money through 2023, it is going to be a very long time before the Reds have real financial flexibility. In addition, it appears that Cincinnati was unable to maximize the value for their traded players over the past year and because of this, will have to depend almost exclusively on their own drafted and signed talent. That being the case, it’s very hard to determine how positive their future could be even over the long term.

As for this year, the Indians should take the Ohio Cup handily, even if it is decided by minor leaguers and bench players as the Indians surpass the Reds in depth even there. While they will certainly sneak out a few wins in March and maybe one in the four game series in May, these games should be as close to automatic wins as exist in Major League Baseball.

Advantage: Indians