I have this picture in my head, of a tiger on its last legs. Old, broken down, depleted of its energy, doesn’t seem to be the threat that it once was. He still has his claws, and his teeth, but with little strength left to use them. Then along comes a child who’s young, fast and fearless. He sees the tiger, and pulls its tail, thinking that because it’s so down it won’t harm him, and nothing happens. With a growing ego, the child does it again, still with little movement. The third time, the child reaches for the tail but loses his hand in the process.
This is how I see the Tigers and the Indians in 2016, where Cleveland can pull the tail of Detroit a few times in a season, possibly enough to finish with a better record, but that doesn’t mean the Tigers won’t be able to fight back as they’ve been known to for years. Who will have the upper hand this season? On a more baseball related level, let’s break this down.
Starting Pitchers
Detroit’s ace, Justin Verlander, is coming off of a 2015 season mixed with a triceps injury/DL stint, and slight second-half comeback. He has two sides, going deep into a game, velocity up, looking comfortable and tired, can’t buy a map to the strike zone, shell of himself question mark. He’s a lead-from-behind ace when playing the rest of the MLB, but playing Cleveland, you never really know which Verlander you’re going to get. Anibal Sanchez might be the only actual teeth on the bump that will make fans nervous. Since signing with the Tigers in 2012, his arm has done them a lot of good, though since his outstanding 2013 he’s dipped a bit. Also, with the signings of Jordan Zimmermann and Mike Pelfrey, things could get interesting this season.
The Indians had one of the best pitching staffs in the Major League Baseball in 2015, posting a team 3.94 ERA compared to Detroit’s 4.78, and it’s expected to keep that status through the coming season. One could easily say that they have not one, but three ace-like starters, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar, with other solid arms behind them in the young arms of Trevor Bauer and Cody Anderson. I feel that no matter who the Tigers could have added to their starting rotation, they might put up a fight, but will be put to shame.
Advantage: Indians
Defense
With the bats being the Tigers strong suit, and pitching being their weakest, that leaves defense somewhere in the middle, leaning on either to set the tone for the game. This was the part of the Tigers that began to crumble the most in their decline last season, and after losing guys like Rajai Davis and Alex Avila, I’m curious what it might be like in 2016. They did however add on someone very close to the heart of Cleveland, that being utility player Mike Aviles. He will play any position he’s asked to play, some better than others, and will most likely be a great asset to the Tigers this year both on the field and at the plate.
The Indians have also had some rough times on the field the last few seasons, but with the additions of short stop Francisco Lindor and third baseman Giovanny Urshela along with the move of Lonnie Chisenhall to the out field, the defense seemed to turn around almost overnight. There was a new confidence about the team, something that I expect they take with them going into the new year.
If Michael Brantley, Jason Kipnis and Yan Gomes can stay healthy it will do wonders for the defense to stay solid behind the outstanding pitching.
Advantage: Indians
Relief Pitching
The Tigers’ bullpen has been the least threatening aspect in their arsenal. Seeing them in the post season and fail in recent years, it’s their bullpen that’s kept them from moving further (you’re only as good as your bullpen). Things are always subject to change in baseball, and that change could possibly come with new closer Francisco Rodriguez. In 2015, while playing for Milwaukee he had 62 strike outs in 57 innings, while getting 38 saves in 40 opportunities. This is probably one of the better bullpen signings I’ve seen from the Tigers in a while. He could be the stability that their pen has needed, which is cause for caution in Cleveland, though not much
The Tribe’s bullpen, though shaky at times and “a tad” overused, is a very strong asset for them who have continued to stay grounded and do their jobs well. With guys like Cody Allen, Zach McAllister, Josh Tomlin and Bryan Shaw among others taking the bump to save the day behind the already mind blowing starters, they’re the perfect second line of defense to keep batters on their toes . Last season alone they logged in 453.1 innings collectively, with a 3.12 ERA and 1.25 WHIP under the always bullpen happy Terry Francona. Since coming to Cleveland, the bullpen has been Francona’s favorite tool on his team, balancing on the fence between overuse and just enough.
Advantage: Indians
Offense
While Cleveland beefed up their offense during the off season with guys like Mike Napoli, and Detroit’s own Davis, and it seems so far that that beefing has made a difference (though it’s only spring training), it’s hard to compare with the Tigers nasty collection of hot bats. The top of the order alone holds four guys who are multi-time silver sluggers and All-Stars. The biggest issue for the Indians among those four is none other than Miguel Cabrera himself. When this guy comes to town there’s a feeling that Cleveland has already psyched itself out. He’s a monster at the plate, and knows very well how to get the best of Cleveland in a hurry. Granted, he also like to bark at the umpires enough times to get him ejected which everyone at Progressive Field loves to see.
Fierce bat number two is oddly enough a Cleveland favorite, Victor Martinez. He needs no intro into who he is, only a nod that his age will not affect his ability to steal bases and hit bombs. The younger Martinez, JD, can do just the same, signing with Detroit only two seasons ago and since then making a huge name for himself between the two power houses above. Also, new signing Justin Upton could probably not fit in any better with this offense even if he tried. He’s had a rough spring training thus far, but unless the same issues arise after camp breaks, it’s a cautious side thought. Other bats like Nick Castellanos and Ian Kinsler are solid and can ride a groove started by the top of the order, but it’s no secret that the advantage isn’t just with Detroit’s offense, but on the bats of those four.
Cleveland has a good offense with players like Gomes, Kipnis and Brantley, though Brantley could possibly miss the first series or a few due to injury. I don’t doubt that Cleveland will still put up more of an offensive battle than they have recently with or without him. Detroit showed weakness in the second half of 2015 across the board, leaving them to completely derail their season and the Indians learned how to capitalize on that, something that they will refer to later in 2016 and then some.
Advantage: Tigers
Overall
Because of the beauty that is baseball, anything can happen. Where the Tigers lack depth coming out of the gate, there’s always a wallet to buy more if needed that the Indians do not have. For some teams, like the Yankees, it works, but even David and his ridiculously high Price couldn’t get them all the way to the promised land of the World Series. Cleveland hasn’t been as far in the post-season as the Tigers in recent years, though going into 2016 they seem to have the advantage to get further and then some. History tells us that both teams will put up a good fight against each other, but in terms of the start of this article and the track Detroit has been on, the aging tiger might parish before it has a chance to bite the child again.
Advantage: Indians
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