Few, if any, major league teams could deal with the loses that have hit the Tigers and still remain competitive. They might not be the best team in baseball this season-not after losing key players like Max Scherzer, Torii Hunter and Rick Porcello– but they are still going to be competitive.
Here’s why.
Detroit still has the talent to win it’s fifth straight Central Division championship, even with Miguel Cabrera potentially missing the early part of the season after having ankle surgery in October, Victor Martinez no longer being an option as a catcher and shortstop Jose Iglesias remaining a question mark after sitting out the entire 2014 season with stress fractures in both legs.
If Cabrera is not 100 percent and if David Price, Anibal Sanchez, Justin Verlander and newcomer Alfredo Simon scuffle in the rotation, there could be big trouble in Motown. With so many impact players returning, including Ian Kinsler, trade acquisition Yoenis Cespedes, Price, Sanchez and J.D. Martinez, the Tigers are not in panic mode.
On the offensive side, the Tigers were second best in the league in wOBA (.331) ,SLG (.426) and OBP (.331) while leading the league in AVG (.277). Assuming both Cabrera and Martinez comes back strong, the Tigers are going to be formidable again. Cabrera, though, has physical issues with the ankle being the latest. Following the 2013 season, the two-time MVP had hernia surgery, and Cabrera’s legs haven’t appeared to be 100 percent for years. Still, look for the 31-year-old first baseman to get back on the field and produce this year, even if he is not completely healthy. The nine-time all star is very durable, having played 159 games last season, 148 in 2013 and 161 games in 2011 and ’12.
The Tigers almost lost Victor Martinez, but the slugger came back with a four-year, $68 million contract and briefly exploring free agency. Although he is 36 years old and tore the medial meniscus in his left knee in February, he is coming off the most productive season of his career. The switch-hitter finished first in the American League with an .874 OPS, second with a .335 BA, seventh with 103 RBI’s and eighth with 32 HR’s. His OBP (.409) and SLG (.565) were the best of his career while his .316 BABIP matched his career average. The torn meniscus made Martinez turn in his catchers mitt for good- as manager Brad Ausmus announced last week that Victor will no longer be able to catch.
Detroit replaces Hunter’s productive bat with Cespedes, who was acquired in a trade from Boston for pitcher Rick Porcello. Cespedes just completed his age 28 season which begs the question: Has he already peaked? Because he was a Cuban defector and came to the States later than others who have come here, he’s much older than one might expect given that he has just three full seasons under his belt.
Cespedes is going to be a free agent at years end and the Tigers won’t be able to make him a qualifying offer as part of the terms of his contract. Cespedes will earn $10.5 million in 2015, so he’s slightly cheaper than Porcello, but the difference is minimal. Like Porcello, he’s settled in as a +3 WAR player, and he projects to perform at about that level this season.
Right fielder J.D. Martinez returns after breaking out big last year. Released by Houston late in spring training, Martinez signed with the Tigers and was a big surprise. About four weeks after he was cut by the Astros, and after he’d slashed .308/.366/.846 in 71 plate appearances for Triple-A Toledo (a then 26-year-old should do so well at that level if he’s to expect a call-up), they promoted him to the parent club, where he had to prove that he warranted playing time, initially. He ended up with a .315/.358/.553 slash line, with 23 home runs, 76 RBIs, 57 runs, and six stolen bases.
Kinsler and Castellanos are back at second and third base, respectively, and Andrew Romine provides a safety net at shortstop if Iglesias’ expected return hits any snags.
Anthony Gose is the new center fielder after coming over from the Blue Jays in a November trade that sent top prospect Devon Travis to Toronto. The Tigers believe with Gose’s great speed and ability to cover ground in the spacious Comerica Park will help the pitching staff and fill a void defensively.
The Tigers offense should be tough again, but pitching will ultimately decide if they make it back to the postseason. Losing Scherzer to free agency is a huge blow, and the Tigers also lost an emerging arm when they traded Porcello to Boston. Fortunately for Detroit, Verlander, Price and Sanchez are back at the top of the rotation.
It was announced last week that Price will get the opening day start over Verlander; the first time since 2007 that Verlander will not start the unofficial national holiday. Make no mistake, Verlander is the key to the rotation. Still owed $140 million over the next five seasons, the 2011 MVP/Cy Young award winner was 15-12 last year and his 4.54 ERA, 3.74 FIP and 4.19 xFIP were all Verlander’s highest since 2008. At $28 million owed this season, Verlander posses the largest payroll percentage on the club:
(Chart generated from Cot’s Baseball Contracts)
There are many who speculate that Verlander, having pitched 200 or more innings in each of the last eight seasons, is starting to take a toll on the 32-year-old. His fastball velocity has declined steadily in the past four seasons which means he needs to improve his off-speed pitches.
The bullpen again looks like the Tigers’ biggest weakness. Joe Nathan is back as a closer, but the veteran righthander struggled in his first season with Detorit. The 40 year old reliever blew a career-high seven saves last year and a 4.81 ERA, 3.94 FIP and 4.14 xFIP were Nathan’s worst since 2000, when he was a young starter for the Giants.
So, what has led to Nathan’s decline? A quick look at his .324 BABIP might suggest regression is coming again this season, but that may not be the case. A big part of that is likely due to his declining fastball. Nathan’s average fastball is down from 93.20 mph in 2013 to 92.85 mph last year. Declining velocity has been a trend for Nathan, and was evident in 2013. People weren’t quick to notice Nathan’s poor velocity then due to his strong results. The difference last season is that his fastball isn’t fooling hitters anymore. Despite the drop in velocity in 2013, Nathan’s fastball still had a PITCHf/x pitch value of 9.1. Last season, it’s registered as barely above replacement level with a 0.7 pitch value. Like Verlander, Nathan will have to rely on his off-speed pitches more.
Joakim Soria is Nathan’s primary setup man, but the two could swap roles if Nathan struggles. Bruce Rondon is another middle arm who could earn ninth-inning appearances. Although Rondon has battled elbow issues this spring, he could also be in the mix to be a closer candidate before the season’s end. He recovered from Tommy John surgery which derailed his entire 2014.
There is not a lot of subtlety to Rondon’s approach — nor perhaps ought there to be for a pitcher who’s exhibited the ability to sit at nearly 100 mph with his fastball. The strategy was an effective one for Rondon during his debut for the Tigers in 2013. He parlayed the fastball plus a hard slider into strikeout and walk rates of 24.6% and 9.0%, respectively plus an 0.81 xFIP and 0.4 WAR over just 28.2 innings. The early returns from spring training are positive in this regard: Rondon hit 100 mph in his debut this spring.
The Tigers have plenty of talent, and finishing first in the Central for the fifth straight season would not be a shock. However, they are an aging team and need to stay healthy- something they have not proven in the past two seasons.
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