Changes in Projections from the Beginning of the Off-Season

The 2016 Indians were a great baseball team. They won 94 games (second in the  AL), took the AL Central for the first time since 2007, the pennant for the first time since 1997 and took the Cubs to game seven despite being a heavy underdog. Essentially, this was the best Indians team in nearly a decade as they score more runs (777), won more games and had a greater run differential (+0.63 per game) than any team since 2007. In addition, besides Rajai Davis, Mike Napoli and some bit players like Jeff Manship, nearly the entire team is returning for 2017.

The Indians could have easily rested on their laurels. With Kansas City and Detroit on a downturn and neither Chicago or Minnesota ready to contend yet, the Indians would have been expected to win the Central without any moves at all this off-season and would have been considered a top two team in the AL along with Boston. Mike Chernoff and Chris Antonetti weren’t about to leave things up to chance, however, and have made every single move possible to improve this club in nearly every aspect.

The signing of Boone Logan was the final proof of this as the Indians could have been happy with a bullpen of Cody Allen, Andrew Miller, Bryan Shaw, Dan Otero, Zach McAllister, Kyle Crockett and Shawn Armstrong, but they weren’t. They could have just penciled in Michael Brantley at DH and not replaced Napoli from outside, but they didn’t. This has been the most expensive off-season in Indians history, not to completely rebuild a terrible team, but to maximize an already great team to it’s full potential.

Just how big is the difference between what would have been had the Indians stood pat rather than spend the entire off-season (or at least late December through the end of January) improving the franchise? Let’s take a look at some projections and see how much Steamer feels the Indians have improved.

First, since most of the players on the Indians 25 man are returning, let’s compare their performances from 2016 to their expectations for 2017. For this exercise, I’ll be using my projected 25 man roster from earlier this week as those expected to be on the team opening day. While this may be off a little, there are really only two spots in question so it shouldn’t be too far away.

The starting rotation should remain the same as last year’s and, if everyone can stay moderately healthy, should be worth about two more wins. Should this not go as planned, Mike Clevinger is projected for 0.8 although this is assuming he would be mostly used as a reliever.

In the bullpen, Steamer expects a regression from the Indians top relievers, particularly Allen and Miller while Shaw and McAllister are expected to maintain. Armstrong didn’t pitch much in 2016 and his projection for 2017 is for a similar inning load, but he is expected to have an ERA around 3.50 and a K/9 above 10.0, so if he should pitch a full relief load, he’ll be worth far more than his projection.

Here, projected playing time is of interest. The one inning that hasn’t been improved that could have been is center field and Steamer projects Almonte to only be a reserve. Given that he is the Indians top defensive option and a solid offensive option as well, it would be surprising to see Tyler Naquin beat him out of the starting job. On the other side, Brantley is projected for over 100 games. If the Indians get 1.5 wins from Brantley, they would have to be ecstatic based on some of the rumors circling this off-season and what happened last year.

All the Indians major hitters from last year (Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana) are expected to regress some, but Yan Gomes should be looking forward to a major improvement. Should he not be the starter, Roberto Perez has similar expectations.

Here, Steamer doesn’t expect Urshela to play much at all, and he may not. The Indians utility infielder could be Erik Gonzalez, Michael Martinez or someone else, but no matter who it is, they probably won’t play much. The extra outfielders, however, will likely play more than their projections. This is particularly true for Guyer, who could play in nearly every game as Chisenhall’s platoon partner. By using a strict platoon advantage, Terry Francona will likely get much more out of both hitters than is currently projected.

As for the players who have completely changed since the off-season began:

And here is the Encarnacion effect:

In both these areas, the Indians will see a considerable improvement, although the dollar amount invested in each upgrade is indicative of the importance of that difference. There’s a reason Edwin Encarnacion received the biggest contract in Indians history. There was no weaker player projected to make the Indians 25 man roster when this off-season started and there was no stronger player the Indians could have signed to replace him.

The improvement from Kyle Crockett to Boone Logan isn’t as extreme, but is still significant. This is particularly true when you consider how much more legitimate Logan’s projections are given his consistent performances over the years. Crockett’s are much more of an assumption given that he hasn’t had a full MLB season since 2014.

The same is true for Jesus Aguilar. While he could slug near .400, he didn’t hit safely in his 9 at bats in 2016 and slugged just .368 in 20 plate appearances in 2015. Undoubtedly, a large part of the his poor production stemmed from a lack of regular at bats, but at the same time, there was a reason he didn’t get regular at bats. If the Brewers are the team that can finally find room for Aguilar, maybe we’ll be able to see his true Major League potential, but there is no chance that his potential is anywhere near what they replaced him with.