Changing Pace: Is Indiana Playoff Bound?

After losing seven straight games, the Pacers have won eight of their last 12 and are less than two games out of the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference.

When the Indiana Pacers fell to 15-30 overall and 12th place in the Eastern Conference after a 89-87 loss in Miami, their chances of making the postseason seemingly fell down the drain. Frank Vogel’s squad was scoring just 90.9 points per game (5.3 points below their season average) and defensively, the team had allowed at least 110 points in four of its last nine games.

Injuries were also beginning to wear down an aging and relatively thin roster. George Hill missed Indiana’s first 28 games and has sat out 39 games total. David West sat out the first 15 games of the season because of a bad ankle and Paul George, who is still recovering from a broken leg, may miss the entire 2014-15 season, though there are reports he may return. C. J. Watson, C. J. Miles, Ian Mahinmi and Rodney Stuckey have also been struck down by injuries.

But the Pacers have finally gotten healthy in recent weeks, and the team is now moving in a positive direction. Hill has scored over 10 points and played at least 25 minutes in six of his last eight games, and Stuckey has been on fire, shooting 57.5 percent and averaging 17 points per game in February. Overall, Indiana is averaging over 104 points per game over its last seven games, six of which have been victories.

Now 23-34 on the season, the Pacers trail the Brooklyn Nets (the Eastern Conference’s eighth seed) by less than two games. So the question must be asked: is it possible Indiana can edge out the Nets, Detroit Pistons and Charlotte Hornets to steal the eighth playoff spot despite having twice as many losses as wins one month ago?

Brooklyn has lost 15 of its last 22 games, but the team recently acquired Thaddeus Young from the Minnesota Timberwolves in exchange for Kevin Garnett. While the trade doesn’t guarantee the Nets will hold onto the eighth seed in the East, they are 2-1 since the deal was made. Moreover, their chances will certainly improve if Deron Williams (who has dished out 27 assists in his last two games), Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez can get and stay healthy. Young is a proven perimeter defender who can occasionally score in bunches and Garnett’s contributions on the court have been minimal despite earning $12 million this season.

Detroit and Charlotte have also struggled over recent weeks. However, the Pistons made a splash by sending D. J. Augustin and Kyle Singler to the Oklahoma City Thunder in a three-team deal that brought them Reggie Jackson. Jonas Jerebko and Luigi Datome were traded to the Boston Celtics in a seperate deal that fetched former Piston Tayshawn Prince. With Brandon Jennings out and Augustin in OKC, Jackson will receive the lion’s share of minutes at point guard. He averaged 20 points and over seven assists with the Thunder when he started in Russell Westbrook’s absence. Nevertheless, Motown has lost eight of its last 14 games. The Hornets made a small transaction by moving Gary Neal to Minnesota for Mo Williams, but chose not to upgrade elsewhere. They have lost six of their last 10.

So yes, the Pacers have a golden opportunity to rise up and take the East’s final playoff seed. However, their defense, which has been so stout over the past few years, has been sorely lacking and needs to improve. It may seem unfair to critique a team that’s currently sixth in the NBA in opponent points per game (97.2), but their numbers over the last two seasons in that category have been 90.7 and 92.3, respectively. Also, despite winning six of their last eight games, Indiana has given up an average of 99.5 points per game.

From an efficiency standpoint, the Pacers are 11th in the league with an average of 101.5 points per 100 possessions. In both the 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons, Indiana ranked number one in that category.

Last year in the playoffs, opposing teams had an offensive rating of 103.1 (according to basketball-reference.com) when Lance Stephenson was on the court. When he went to the bench, the opposing team’s number rose to 109.6, a 6.5 point differential in the opponent’s favor. This season, Stuckey, Stephenson’s replacement, is creating a higher offensive rating for opponents when he’s on the court (104.9) rather than off (103.3). With George in the lineup last regular season, opponents had a -2.2 efficiency differential, and in the postseason, that differential rose to -12.6.

It’s clear not having Stephenson and George in the lineup is hurting the Pacers defensively. But if the man now called “PG-13” is able to return to his All-Star form this season, he will provide Indiana will an enormous boost on the defensive end. Ultimately, the team has a legitimate chance to sneak into the playoffs this year, but they must re-find their roots and return to dominating opponents on the defensive side of the ball.