Historically, quarterbacks picked after the third round haven’t found much NFL success. Sure, there are outliers like Tom Brady and Marc Bulger who are quickly groomed into plus NFL starters despite being Day 3 picks. But for the most part, fishing for a starting QB after the second or third round is a fruitless exercise.
Yet I believe it’s time NFL teams starting doing it far more often.
Why? Because the value of backup quarterbacks is at an all-time high. Between quarterback needs, rising contracts and ramifications of free agents and cost-effective mid-round quarterbacks, the smart teams will mine Day 3 of the draft to fill a crucial and, at times, pricey positional group.
Backups Wanted/Needed
A third of the league saw their starting quarterback miss at least one game due to injury, with five missing 5+ games. Those injuries lead most teams scrambling for capable options for the remainder of the year. Some of the quarterbacks that started for quarterback-desperate teams last year: Josh Freeman (Colts), Kellen Moore (Cowboys), Jimmy Clausen (Bears and Ravens), and Brandon Weeden (Cowboys and Texans).
The Dallas Cowboys, despite knowing Tony Romo’s injury history, had little stability behind him and no capable option that knew the offense and could manage a playoff-caliber team to a winning record. They used Brandon Weeden and Kellen More to (unsuccessfully) right the ship. The Ravens begrudgingly put in Matt Schaub and, after his struggles and an injury, threw in recently released Jimmy Clausen Ryan Mallett into the lineup.
Dallas and Baltimore, two playoff caliber teams, were left without a young quarterback option to both feel confident as the team’s clear next man up and gain valuable experience and a relationship with the teams supporting cast. The Cowboys opted to draft a quarterback, while the Ravens will dangerously stick with Ryan Mallett as Flacco’s primary backup.
While injuries can’t be predicted, they can be protected against. NFL teams shouldn’t be expected to have two starter-quality quarterbacks; that’s unreasonable. But they should STRIVE to have just that. Building a team shouldn’t be contingent on one player staying healthy the entire season, even at the quarterback position, and the 2015 season went a long way in instilling that thought into the minds of NFL teams.
Quarterback Contracts Rising
It’s become a well-discussed and expected trend that the quarterback market is reaching its apex. Being a slightly-above capable starting quarterback in the NFL demands a $14+ million dollar contract. Being a quality, young NFL QB with ample experience, like Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck and, soon to be guys like Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr, demanding 20+ million a year isn’t unrealistic at all.
As the value of starters has risen, so has the market for quality backups. While backup quarterbacks have always hovered around $2-3 million per year, the rise in their contracts has already started. Colt McCoy signed for $3 million a year in Washington. Drew Stanton signed for $3.25 per year in Arizona. Chad Henne signed for $4 million per year behind Blake Bortles.
Most notable, however, was Chase Daniel’s $7 million per year contact for the Philadelphia Eagles. That contract exceeded most other offers he received and had a lot to do with Howie Roseman’s stance on QBs and Doug Pederson’s confidence in Daniel. But more importantly, Daniel’s new salary may have set the market for backup and “bridge” quarterbacks.
And we may truly begin to realize this inflated quarterback market adjustment next year when Mark Sanchez, Case Keenum, Mike Glennon and Ryan Nassib are all fishing for backup jobs and using Daniel’s contract as a threshold. And why shouldn’t they? Daniel’s inexperience, undrafted draft grade out of college and lackluster measurables don’t surpass all of the above passers.
Mid Round Pick Cost Effectiveness
Historical draft trends show that, after the third round, it’s really difficult to project if a prospect will find their way on a roster long-term, nonetheless actual NFL success. By Day 3 of the draft, finding a quality backup or rotational player would be awesome value at every position, and anything past that is a resounding success of a draft choice.
If a team can find a quarterback that fits their scheme and their offensive coaching staff’s strengths, there’s every reason to believe a mid-round quarterback should be able to man the QB2 role effectively and learn to manage their NFL offense at least at 70-80% of the level of a quality backup by the end of their first year. And using $4 million as the new benchmark for a quality backup quarterback, which seems likely if even a bit low moving forward, that’s between 6 and 7 TIMES what a third round or later draft pick makes.
Over the course of a three-year contract, opting for a draft pick over a free agent could save a team upwards of $7 to 10 million dollars, for, at worst, 70-80% of the quality. And while quarterback value has increased based off of injury concerns, as stated earlier, just five teams needed their backups to play more than four games this year and over two-thirds of teams didn’t use their backups.
The best examples of this strategy being implemented are the Patriots, Packers and Bengals. New England has routinely stockpiled inexpensive quarterback draft picks behind Tom Brady, and are the gold standard for the added upside benefit of drafting backup quarterbacks. The Patriots received a second-round pick for Matt Cassell, saw long-term interest in Ryan Mallett from other teams and now have both Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett to dangle in front of quarterback needed teams. And, most importantly, the Patriots no have two quarterbacks that they can both rely upon as inexpensive backups and can be patient with their development in the Patriots’ offensive system.
The Packers and Ted Thompson firmly subscribe to the “get a quarterback every year” theory, and have found success in developing Matt Flynn and Scott Tolzien into viable and capable backups behind Aaron Rodgers without ever spending ample cash to keep them. They recently drafted Brett Hundley on Day 3 of the 2015 NFL Draft, one of the youngest quarterbacks (just 21 now) to enter a draft class in recent history, to develop for the future. Hundley, at one point fetching first-round interest, is on an inexpensive deal (averaging about $600,000 per year) as he learns the Packer offense and from Aaron Rodgers.
Finally the Bengals saw this practice actually show it’s immediate benefits in 2015. With just two games left to go, the Bengals were forced to thrust 5th-round pick AJ McCarron into the starting lineup after six months sitting, learning, and gaining confidence behind Andy Dalton. McCarron, who made $600,000 in 2016, managed to lead the Bengals to a 2-2 record in his starts, losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos by 3 in overtime and in the playoffs to the Pittsburgh Steelers by just 2.
In the 2016 NFL Draft, five teams took quarterbacks with, what I believe to be, full intentions to make them a long-term backup. The Oakland Raiders traded up to secure the free-falling Connor Cook, leaping in front of the Cowboys to secure Derek Carr’s long-term backup who is similar to McCarron in his NFL-ready nature. The Cowboys added Dak Prescott in round five, and while he possesses some promise as an upside quarterback, his value will be as a run-first quarterback with game manager skills that should pose a unique threat for teams should he needed to take over for a few weeks in 2016. The Dolphins and Jaguars added Brandon Doughty and Brandon Allen, respectively. Both are likely to assume lead backup duties in 2017 once Matt Moore for the Dolphins and Chad Henne of the Jaguars are asked to move on next off-season, assuming both Doughty and Allen take advantage of their opportunity in training camp and during the 2016 season on the practice field.
Smart teams aren’t drafting these third round and beyond quarterbacks because they’re fishing for the next Russell Wilson or Tom Brady. They’ll certainly be happy if one of those guys falls into their lap, but these teams aren’t necessarily looking to strike it rich. They’re looking to save money, instill confidence and, if necessary, have a groomed replacement ready to take over. And it’s a practice that should continue to raise the value of quality, reliable college quarterbacks and replace the previous desire of “project quarterbacks” that have been generally taken on Day 3 of the draft.
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