Checking In On Cleveland’s Outfield Situation

Dating back to the beginning of the 2016 season, the Cleveland Indians’ outfield has arguably been the greatest area of uncertainty for the team. A month into the season, can we say Cleveland’s outfield picture has gained any clarity?

For over a year, the biggest question regarding the outfield has largely been Michael Brantley‘s health and production. To date, Tribe fans have been ecstatic to see Dr. Smooth hitting the way he did in 2014 and 2015. Through his first 19 games this season, Brantley is slashing a stellar .297/.358/.514. The only non-Brantley trait has been his elevated 21% strikeout rate, significantly higher than his normal rate of 8-11%.

Terry Francona has been careful with Brantley as he works back from his injury, having often benched him against lefties, but eventually Brantley will be playing left field nearly every day. The consistency will be a welcome sign for Cleveland in the outfield, as center and right field may continue to serve as a rotating door. Abraham Almonte, Austin Jackson (once he returns from what should be a short DL-stint), Lonnie Chisenhall and Brandon Guyer all figure to get reps in center and right field, and all will usually be platooned.

Offensively, Almonte, Chisenhall, and Jackson have all played well above their capabilities so far this season, while Guyer has played well below expectations. Not surprisingly, hot hitters in the group are expected to regress significantly, while Guyer is expected to turn things around.

While it isn’t a guarantee that Cleveland’s group of outfielders will play to their expectations or better, it’s too early in the season to legitimately worry about a player like Guyer. For now, it has to be assumed Cleveland will get at least what is expected from the group, which amounts to (at least) roughly average production of offense. Between that and Brantley’s well-above average offense, Tribe fans should be perfectly content with the outfielders’ offensive output.

The problem? The group leaves much to be desired on defense.

You don’t have to look much further than Cleveland’s opponents batting average on balls in play when hitting fly balls. As of May 2, Cleveland’s opponents were hitting .157 on non-home run fly balls, which is 5th worst in the MLB. Not surprisingly, the top three teams all have excellent defensive center fielders: Cincinnati (Billy Hamilton), Kansas City (Lorenzo Cain), and Tampa Bay (Kevin Kiermaier).

At the same time, teams like Chicago (Albert Almora, Jason Heyward) and Toronto (Kevin Pillar) have top-notch defensive outfielders, and find themselves actually ranking near Cleveland. Likely, this is a reflection of the small sample size of 2017’s data. With the limited data, we can’t statistically prove Cleveland’s 2017 outfield defense is among the leagues worst, but that stat is certainly one to follow as the season progresses.

However, along with the small samples from this year, we can look at the individual defensive history of Cleveland’s outfielders, “the eye test”, and StatCast’s catch probability leaderboard to see that the Tribe’s outfield defense is certainly not a strength.

None of Cleveland’s outfielders with over 1000 career innings in their current positions offer any advantages in the field. In left, Ultimate Zone Rating has Brantley as just below average for his career at a -2.4 UZR/150. In center, Jackson (1.0 UZR/150) has been a tick above average.

Meanwhile, while Almonte doesn’t have a large enough sample in right field for use with metrics, plays like this seem to indicate he isn’t a defensive wizard in right:

However, the Indians’ biggest problem lies in center field – the most important position in the outfield. Especially with Jackson now on the DL, the Tribe can’t afford a poor defensive center fielder when their corner outfielders are mediocre. Unfortunately, that is precisely Cleveland’s situation. At the moment, Lonnie Chisenhall is Cleveland’s primarily center fielder, and besides the fact that he hasn’t really played the position professionally before, he has struggled there in 2017, to say the least.

StatCast’s catch probability leaderboard can confirm Chisenhall’s shortcomings in center. Chisenhall has caught just two of five balls hit near him that had between a 51% and 90% chance of being caught. While Francona has praised Chisenhall’s defense, the numbers say he has been poor, and that type of play can’t continue.

Temporarily, poor outfield defense won’t cripple the Indians. Every team has a weakness, and that is one of the only major flaws with the current roster. It helps that Cleveland’s pitchers allow the 10th-lowest fly ball rate (34.1%) in baseball at the moment. However, the team’s goal is the World Series, and they should try to address any weaknesses before the postseason.

As many Tribe fans may know, Cleveland does have two center field prospects that would be considered defensive upgrades over Chisenhall in Bradley Zimmer and Greg Allen. However, Allen hasn’t played an inning in AAA, and Zimmer’s strikeout rate in AAA this season is still very high (27.2%) while his walk rate is lower than usual (6.5%). While it’s possible one of the two could come in and contribute mid-season, it seems irresponsible to rely on either player to produce with such high-stakes.

If the team wants more of a sure thing, they could turn to the trade market. One quality option would be reaching out to former Indians’ President Mark Shapiro in Toronto to inquire about Kevin Pillar. The Blue Jays are 9-17 in the AL East, and seem to be prime candidates to enter a rebuild phase. If Pillar – one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball – is made available, the Indians should have no reservations about pursuing him. At 28 years old and controlled affordably through 2021, Cleveland could afford to (and would have to) give up some quality prospects.

While Brantley’s return has been a great development for Cleveland, the rest of the outfield is hardly set in stone. Moreover, it will be difficult to feel great about the Tribe’s outfield until they can find a reliable defensive center fielder. It remains to be seen whether that comes through Chisenhall improving, prospects like Zimmer or Allen arriving, or through trading for a player like Pillar.