Checking in with Rob Neyer

Rob Neyer was gracious enough to answer a few questions for Fire Brand of the American League. Check out his answers below, as he seems to agree with Peter Gammons in an earlier Fire Brand interview that David Ortiz is not done, and he stands by his contention that Jim Rice is not a Hall of Famer. After hearing his thoughts on these two subjects, I offer up my own rebuttals.

There are still plenty of impact free agents available that the Red Sox
could snap up. Out of all those still available, who do you think makes
the most sense for the Sox and why?

Plenty?
Bobby Abreu, Garret Anderson, and Adam Dunn are still out there, but it
doesn’t seem that the Sox have room for a corner outfielder or a DH. I
suspect that you’re thinking about one of the starting pitchers, as
there are still some good ones out there and a team like the Red Sox
can never have too many starters. And indeed, since you sent me these
questions, there are reports that the Sox are interested in Brad Penny.
I didn’t think they needed Mark Teixeira and I don’t think they need Penny or any other starter. But a little depth
would be comforting for everyone involved, I’m sure.

There’s a
lot of debate surrounding whether or not David Ortiz is declining or if
the fact that he hit 23 home runs in limited time with a wrist injury
shows that he can still be an offensive force. Which side of the fence
do you come down on?

After coming off the DL in late July, Ortiz
cranked out 31 extra-base hits in 55 games, while posting a .385
on-base percentage. I don’t know that he’ll ever hit 40 homers again,
but (say) 25 homers and 45 doubles isn’t a lousy substitute. I do think
when Ortiz’s contract expires after the 2010 season — or 2011 if they
Sox exercise their option — it’ll probably be time to cut ties with
the big guy. But that’s a worry for another day.

My reaction: Interesting to consider that Ortiz may move on after 2010 or 2011. Ortiz will complete his age 34 season in 2010, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility to suggest he has at least four years left in him at that juncture. Will his ability have declined to the point that it’s time for him to move on? Considering Manny Ramirez (and yes, he’s one in a million, I realize this) just finished up his age 36 season, it wouldn’t surprise me any if he signed an extension.

The 2010 free
agent class (and resulting ones) look to be thinner than usual, mostly
a factor due to small and mid-market teams locking up their star
players early. Do you think this will eventually have a corrosive
effect on big market teams’ ability to consistently contend year in and
year out as less options avail themselves?

Well, there are other
ways for rich teams to throw their weight around. But yes, there will
be shockingly few great players available as free agents next winter,
and in the short term that’s going to limit teams’ ability to buy a
quick fix. Which is a good thing for most of us, I think.

Do you
think the New York Yankees’ recent acquisitions have pushed them
significantly ahead of the field in the AL East, or that their moves
have only caught them up with the Sox and Tampa Bay Rays?

Depends
on how you define “significantly”. If by “significantly” you mean five
(or more) wins — five wins is roughly the standard deviation for wins
in a season, I believe — then I would say no, not quite. With the
caveat that I haven’t done any actual work on this at all, I’m going to
guess that the Yankees are now, on paper, three or four games ahead of
whoever’s now in second place.

Would the salary cap be good for
baseball? Are you in favor of the current luxury tax or would you like
to see it disposed with? If you had the power to decide the financial
structure of baseball, what would it be?

I’m not a big fan of
salary caps, mostly because by the time you’ve got one that everybody
can live with, it’s so cryptic that nobody can understand it. And then
of course there’s the little problem that the Players Association won’t
live with it anyway. I’m not sure there’s anything terribly wrong with
the current structure, but I do believe in more revenue-sharing. Why
not just take 50 percent of each team’s revenues, throw them into one
big pot, and split them 30 ways? That would still leave the Yankees
with a big financial advantage. Just not as big as now.

Jim
Rice. People are either adamantly for or violently against. You’ve come
down on the negative side. Are you against Jim Rice because he doesn’t
fulfill the ideal of a “true” Hall of Famer or because he doesn’t
belong with the people currently in the Hall?

That strikes me as
a distinction without a difference. I can’t support Jim Rice’s Hall of
Fame candidacy because I don’t believe he’s among the 20 best left
fielders in major league history, or even among the five best corner
outfielders who are today not in the Hall of Fame.
Just to make the most obvious argument, Rice wasn’t nearly the
ballplayer that Tim Raines was. That’s objectively true, and it’s
frustrating to me that so many Hall of Fame voters believe that Jim
Rice was a great player, but Tim Raines was not.

My reaction: I was particularly interested in this question because I think that Rice has a similar career trajectory to David Ortiz. A player needs to play at least 10 seasons to be eligible for the Hall, and since Ortiz got a late start as a starter, he has 12 total seasons in the bigs but only eight with over 400 at-bats. He finished in the top five in MVP voting five straight times from 2003-2007. If he can produce two more excellent seasons and then play his career out at an above-average level, it will be interesting to hear the discussion on whether Big Papi belongs in the Hall. Of course, Edgar Martinez will have a big say on the future of DH’s in the Hall.

Obviously
projecting the future is hard, but let’s give it a shot anyways: What
does the next decade hold for the Red Sox and for baseball as a whole?

Oddly
enough, while the Red Sox are as well-positioned as any team in the
majors to be the best team in the majors over the
next decade (or at least the next half-decade), they’re also going to
miss the playoffs a few times, simply because they happen to play in a
division that will rarely allow for a 90-win team to qualify for the
postseason. As for baseball as a whole, I don’t anticipate anything but
more of the same. At least from the fans’ perspective.

Thanks to Rob for donating his time!