Why Cincinnati Will Beat ECU Tonight and Win Out

After a truly rough beginning to their season, the Cincinnati Bearcats finally seem to be getting on the right track just in time for their pivotal Thursday night showdown against the East Carolina Pirates.

The Bearcats enter this week riding a three-game winning streak, during which they’ve defeated SMU, South Florida and Tulane by a combined score of 113-34. While it’s true that these three opponents aren’t exactly the best that the AAC has to offer, the fact that Cincinnati has been able to dominate these past few games has eased concerns about the team that emerged when it lost three games in a row early on.

The other good news for Cincinnati fans: head coach Tommy Tuberville has said that starting quarterback Gunner Kiel’s bruised ribs have healed to almost 100 percent over the team’s bye week.

Kiel got off to a hot start in the Bearcats’ first three games, throwing 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions, but has cooled off since, throwing six touchdowns and five interceptions. While one can only speculate how much of this was due to his injured ribs (he is a sophomore after all), it’s reasonable to think he might return to something a little closer to his early-season form if he is indeed finally healthy.

But despite the fact that Tuberville announced that Kiel is almost back to 100 percent, he still stated that both he and backup quarterback Munchie Legaux will see playing time against the Pirates, and Tuberville has also declined to name a starter for Thursday night’s game.

Legaux has certainly been serviceable as Kiel’s replacement, having completed 30 of his 39 passes and recording a total of four touchdowns over the last two games. In any event, Cincinnati fans should feel pretty comfortable with either Kiel or Legaux taking snaps under center.

Photo used courtesy of cincyontheprowl.com.
Photo used courtesy of cincyontheprowl.com.

This week, the Bearcats will be facing another team coming off a bye week that also boasts a potent aerial attack.

Behind its star quarterback Shane Carden, ECU is averaging 361.3 passing yards per game this season, the third-highest total in the FBS. Carden has been stellar for the Pirates in 2014, passing for 2,791 yards, 18 touchdowns and five interceptions through eight games.

Though both teams have had great success through the air, neither has been very effective at stopping opposing quarterbacks. ECU and Cincinnati rank 90th and 109th, respectively, when it comes to pass defense. So even though temperatures will be in lower 30s and upper 20s for the game, you can still expect to see both offenses slinging it through the air.

While the Pirates are 6-2 and are unquestionably one of the best teams in the AAC, they haven’t looked great over their past several games.

After winning a trio of games in October against SMU, South Florida and Connecticut, each of which was probably closer than it should have been, the Pirates were taken down on the road two weeks ago by the Temple Owls.

If Cincinnati takes care of business against ECU, its chances of winning out are pretty good.

The remaining three opponents on the Bearcats’ schedule are Connecticut, Temple and Houston, each of whom are beatable. The Owls are no pushover (just ask ECU) and the Cougars did hand Memphis its only loss of conference play, but Cincinnati still has to like its chances of winning against all three if Kiel remains healthy and the offense continues to click.

Even if the Bearcats win all of their four remaining games, it doesn’t guarantee they’ll win the AAC title because Memphis defeated them earlier in the year and controls its own destiny. However, there’s always the chance the Tigers get beat and the only thing Cincinnati can worry about is taking care of its own business.

Make no mistake, winning out will not be any easy feat. But if the Bearcats are able to win what will be likely be a hard-fought matchup with East Carolina, you certainly have to like their chances.

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