I must admit that I had to chuckle a little bit when I read that Fangraphs.com projected the Cleveland Indians would win the American League Central Division in 2016. As a lifelong fan, I’ve been through first place predictions before especially when Sports Illustrated picked the Indians twice (1987 and 2015) to win the World Series, but then watched the team failing to even make the playoffs.
Making predictions at this time of year is mostly pointless other than for entertainment purposes. Even the number crunchers who use a tremendous amount of data aren’t always close to being right. But it’s still fun. In that, the Indians were projected to win 84 games, lose 78 and to win the division by two games over Detroit, three over Chicago, five over Kansas City, and six over Minnesota.
Hey, if that’s what happens, I’ll take it. It would be an amazingly fun September if those records panned out because everyone would be in the race until the final two weeks or so.
Most of the big moves of the off-season have been made, although there are a few bigger free agents that could still provide a boost for any team in this division. Spring training is only a few weeks away so there’s time for optimism and to reflect on what the off-season has brought to the division. Remember, all the teams are tied for first place on the first day of the season.
With that, let’s move on with a Central Division roundup and I’ll highlight what’s been encouraging and what’s been disappointing this off-season.
Cleveland Indians
What’s Encouraging
The Indians should once again have really good, if not great, pitching. The rotation is anchored by former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber, and emerging stars Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, along with Trevor Bauer, Cody Anderson and Josh Tomlin providing solid depth to the rotation.
Shortstop Francisco Lindor was recently ranked the best shortstop in baseball by MLB Network, although it might be premature to anoint him that title. But he’s pretty darned good, exciting, and fun to watch play the game. He could be an all-star in 2016. The team also has other young, and sometime under-appreciated players such as Jason Kipnis and closer Cody Allen.
This team is going to be improved on defense with a full season of Lindor at shortstop. For the Indians to win a lot of games, they will have to stop other teams from scoring. Fortunately, this should be one of the Tribe’s strengths and might just make them a contender for the postseason, if injuries don’t become a big story in 2016.
What’s Disappointing
The Tribe failed to land a high impact bat during the off-season, but the additions of Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis should help provide a boost to the offense.
Michael Brantley is hurt and will likely miss the beginning of the season. Even if he misses just a few weeks, it probably will take him some time to get back up to speed. Hopefully by the time he returns the Indians haven’t dug themselves into another early-season hole with a slow start.
Unfortunately, the Tribe’s biggest weakness will be scoring runs, so if you like pitchers’ duels you should enjoy watching the Indians play in 2016. Hopefully, with a little bit of creativity and health, the Indians will be able to manufacture enough runs to win more games than they lose for a fourth straight season and once again be in the thick of things when it comes to the Central Division.
Detroit Tigers
What’s encouraging
The Tigers keep spending money to bring in top-level talent. The acquisition of slugger Justin Upton along with Jordan Zimmerman were bold moves that should help. When you have an offense anchored by Miguel Cabrera along with Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, and now Upton, it can be downright scary for even the best pitchers to face.
Justin Verlander should win more than five games in 2016 and the addition of Zimmerman to the rotation and new closer Francisco Rodriguez should help.
What’s disappointing
Even with a high-powered offense, the Tigers pitching was a liability in 2016 especially after David Price was traded. But even with Price on the team, the bullpen was unreliable and the starting rotation wasn’t exactly what you would call solid.
After Verlander and Zimmerman, the rest of the rotation remains pedestrian and somewhat of a liability as is the middle relief pitching. So if these two guys don’t have really good seasons, it could be a long one for Tigers fans.
Chicago White Sox
What’s encouraging
Lefty pitchers Chris Sale and Carlos Rodon make up two exciting starters in any team’s rotation. I expect power-hitting 1B/DH Jose Abreu to continue to hit well and be in the mix for AL MVP.
The White Sox acquired Todd Frazier from Cincinnati to play third base and second baseman Brett Lawrie, who was picked up from the Oakland Athletics. These guys should provide Abreu some protection in the middle of the order and make it a fierce one for opposing pitchers. Closer David Robertson is solid in the bullpen.
What’s disappointing
After Sale and Rodon, there are some questions with the rotation as John Danks (7-15, 4.71 ERA) wasn’t good in 2015 and the fifth starter is projected to be righty Erik Johnson who has started only 16 games in the past three years.
Like most teams, the weakness will come from the lack of rotation depth and middle relief pitching. An injury here and there could be disastrous for Chicago. Also felt will be the loss of under appreciated shortstop Alexei Ramirez who was let go by the team. But if the offense can show marked improvement in 2016, then the White Sox could be a sleeper pick especially if Sale has a monster year.
Kansas City
What’s encouraging
Well, the Royals won the World Series in 2015, so they have that going for them. Plus, they also made it to the World Series in 2014, so this team has the experience to once again be right in the middle of things, despite what sabermetrics might indicate. They play well together and have a knack for the big hit or key defensive play.
Alex Gordon re-signed with the team, which I thought would happen. It would have been a big blow for the team if he left. The Royals offense and defense remains nearly intact from its championship run and that’s good for Kansas City.
With a dominating bullpen that has laid down the new blueprint for how to win a championship, it will be hard to see the Royals not repeating as Central Division champions.
What’s disappointing
The Royals decided it was OK to part with Johnny Cueto from their pitching staff as he wanted top dollar to sign although he didn’t have a big impact on the team’s success after coming over in a late trade with Cincinnati. The rotation isn’t dominant in any sense, but if they remain “good enough” to get the game to the bullpen with a lead, it’s pretty much been game over for the past two seasons.
This particular off-season didn’t appear to be about getting better by adding new players. Rather, it was about keeping what they had in place. The concern about that is it can be very difficult to repeat winning a championship in sports, so we’ll see if the Royals are up to the task.
Minnesota Twins
What’s encouraging
The Twins made their big splash by signing slugger Byung Ho Park from South Korea. He has big potential to hit a ton of home runs, but the question will be is whether he’ll strike out a ton as well. If he can make the adjustment successfully to the Major Leagues, it will go a long way to help the Twins win.
On a team devoid of other stars other than a declining Joe Mauer, players will need to have good seasons and stay healthy. The Twins are mostly young, so it’s possible for this to happen. There could be some breakout seasons, so that’s what you’re hoping for as a Twins fan.
What’s disappointing
The pitching rotation is mediocre and features veteran Phil Hughes as the No. 1 starter. That pretty much tells you what you need to know about the starters, who aren’t great, but also aren’t terrible overall. They don’t strike out many batters, so they have to rely on good fielding and keeping the ball inside the park.
The other big problem for the Twins is they still owe Mauer $69 million during the next three seasons. It’s hard to make an impact acquiring free agents when you have that money money tied up involving one player who is no longer what he used to be.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
