2016 Angels Preview: C.J. Cron

C.J. Cron has proudly carried the torch as a Mark Trumbo surrogate in his first two seasons with the Halos: He’s swung at just about everything, almost never walked, and hit the ball a mile every now and again, all while splitting time at DH and first base. If his aping of Trumbo continues into his age-26 season, Cron will be on track for a banner year at the plate, an All-Star appearance, and perhaps a cameo as the club’s starting left fielder.

Of course career trajectories are impossible to predict for even the surest of things, so anticipating a big step forward from Cron in 2016 is probably misguided. Best to keep expectations low, that way anything close to average production becomes a pleasant surprise. He’ll certainly get every opportunity to prove himself at the plate, as the Angels’ other options at DH comprise a Rule 5 draft pick with zero MLB experience and a 33-year-old journeyman with a career .383 SLG. It’s unfair to say that the season hinges on whether Cron can avoid cratering like he did early in 2015, but it would certainly wouldn’t hurt.

Position: DH/1B | Age (2016): 26
Bats: R  | Throws: R
Height: 6’4″ | Weight: 235
2015 WAR: 0.2

2015 in a Tweet

Cron was streaky as all get-out in 2015, but in the end managed to be just about the same guy he was as a rookie: a replacement-level DH.

2016 Projections

All the projection systems expect more of the same from C.J. Cron, which isn’t surprising. He’s given no indication that he can differentiate a strike from a hole in the ground, and all of his rate stats have stayed pretty static through his first two seasons. His saving grace in the batter’s box is his plate coverage, which allows him to sporadically make solid contact on terrible pitches, keeping his strikeout rate in check.

I’d probably take the over on the slugging and home run totals, as none of the projections expect him to come particularly close to his career home-run rate (4.1%), and as we’ve noted he should have no shortage of chances at the plate. I can’t decide whether a 25 HR season from Cron would be a success or not if everything else about his game stays the same. I want to say “yes”, but it’ll probably depend on the timing of those dingers and just how often Mike Scioscia is forced to stick Cron’s stone hands at first.

Spray Chart

When Cron squares up the ball, it goes a long way. The problem is he swings at a bunch of pitches that no one not named Vladimir Guerrero would ever be able to square up. Because of this he has a penchant for making off-balance, weak contact more than a hitter of his size should, and he puts far too many balls in play on the ground. His ability to spray line drives to all parts of the field is nice, but it won’t do him much good if he can’t do it more consistently.

And ohmygoodness the pop-ups. So many pop-ups. Among players with at least 400 plate appearances in 2015, Cron’s 18.0% IFFB rate was seventh worst. Cron popped out to an infielder more times (20) last season than Howie Kendrick has in his entire career (14). For real.

Zone Profile

If Cron could just lay off the low-and-away offering, he’d be golden. And if I had a million dollars, I’d be rich. Some things are a lot easier said than done. Cron absolutely demolishes pitches away, so long as they’re at his belt or higher. The unfortunate thing is he seems unable to differentiate between the pitches that’ll stay waist-high and those that are about to drop off the table. The result is a lot of whiffs and weak contact on pitches that look good out of the hand but are balls by the time they reach the plate. Cron looking for only a pitch in a specific part of the zone—say, up and away—could go a long way toward making him a productive middle-of-the-order bat. Again, though, much easier said than done.

Fun Fact

C.J.’s younger brother Kevin is a power-hitting, free-swinging first baseman in the Arizona Diamondbacks’ system. His dad was a corner infielder too, getting 16 plate appearances with the Angels back in 1991.

What to Watch For

Cron posted a semi-respectable 5.6% walk rate in the second half of 2015. Whether that was real improvement or simply positive regression from his dreadful 1.9% rate in the first half is absolutely worth keeping an eye on.

A Bold Prediction

Cron will crack not only the 20 HR plateau for the first time but also the 30 HR one, making his .290 OBP a little more palatable.

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Previous Previews: Yunel Escobar; Kole Calhoun; Mike Trout; Albert Pujols