Clement Confidence Plummeting

I tried to be a believer in Matt Clement. I kept saying to myself before last year that this guy is oozing with potential and Theo Epstein found yet another talented young pitcher just entering his prime. After his rocketing start, the Matt Clement Bandwagon was running full speed and I was the driver. I remember how devastated I was when Clement fell victim to a lined comeback by Carl Crawford?s in Tampa Bay, remember saying to myself ?great, now we?ve lost our ace.? Whether that shows how depleted and mediocre our pitching staff was at the time, or the amount of confidence I had in Clement to lead the Sox to the promised land, well, I?ll let you decide.
Move to February of 2006- the first signs of baseball in the air, season previews circling the internet, spring training approaching- and yours truly actually still believing this is the breakout year for Matt Clement. The drop on his pitches, the velocity, the calm, collected way he conducts himself on the mound, his age- basically, I just felt Clement was destined for glory soon. He was just too talented to keep falling short. Either the Tampa liner never really cured any mental wounds (which I don?t buy) or Clement just will never be a top-quality pitcher in this league. I?m starting to give up.
Then I looked at his career stats:
1999 Padres (25 yr old): 180.2 IP, 10-12, 4.48 ERA, 190 H, 18 HR, 1.53 WHIP, 6.73 K/9
2000 Padres: 205.0 IP, 13-17, 5.14 ERA, 194 H, 22 HR, 1.56 WHIP, 7.46 K/9
2001 Marlins: 169.1 IP, 9-10, 5.05 ERA, 172 H, 15 HR, 1.52 WHIP, 7.12 K/9
2002 Cubs: 205.0 IP, 12-11, 3.60 ERA, 162 H, 18 HR, 1.20 WHIP, 9.44 K/9
2003 Cubs: 201.2 IP, 14-12, 4.11 ERA, 169 H, 22 HR, 1.23 WHIP, 7.63 K/9
2004 Cubs:81.0 IP, 9-13, 3.68 ERA, 155 H, 23 HR, 1.28 WHIP, 9.45 K/9
You can take a few things out of those stats. First, Matt Clement knows how to strike out batters, that?s obvious by excellent K/9 numbers in 2002 and 2004. Unfortunately, he doesn?t always know how to get hitters out, if that makes sense. His H/9 totals over the course of his career are not great, nor are the mediocre records. Clement gives up a decent amount of home runs and extra-base hits as well. But you can point out one key factor: Matt Clement peaked in 2002, and it?s all going down from there.
Take a look at those stats from 2002 again. He pitched 205 innings, a career high, and struck out almost 10 batters per game. He gave up the lowest hit total of his career, went from a 5.05 ERA to 3.60, and was turning 28 years old. Then look at 2003. Pretty much every category dropped, amounting in a 9-13 record in 2004 and 23 HR in less innings pitched. Judging by these numbers, I made some projections:
2005 Red Sox: 191.0 IP, 13-6, 4.57 ERA, 192 H, 18 HR, 1.36 WHIP, 6.88 K/9
2006 Red Sox (so far): 40.1 IP, 3-2, 5.58 ERA, 45 H, 4 HR, 1.64 WHIP, 6.47 K/9
2006 Red Sox (finish): 167.2 IP, 11-14, 5.01 ERA, 197 H, 23 HR, 1.63 WHIP, 6.32 K/9
2007 Red Sox: 157.1 IP, 9-13, 5.12 ERA, 188 H, 25 HR, 1.70 WHIP, 5.92 K/9
When I viewed the Matt Clement signing, I was pretty pleased. I saw his K/9 numbers and the fact I believed his best years would come in Boston. I overlooked the fact he peaked in 2002 and locking him up for four years and 40 million instead of Pedro for four and 52 million might end up being a crucial mistake. I never took into consideration that his quiet demeanor may not fit the puzzle in Boston.
As long as Clement fails to beat quality opponents, he?ll find it quite difficult to make any playoff rotation in the near future. He can jack up his record against Baltimore and Tampa all he wants, but teams like Texas and Toronto bash the living crap out of him. I swear, I wake up at night seeing flashes of Vernon Wells and Hank Blalock ripping 450- foot home runs to dead center at Fenway. To top it all off, he?s basically untradeable when you consider his contract and his performance. So, in reality, we could be in for more of Matt Clement in 2008 and 2009. The Clement Bandwagon has reached a screeching halt, and I?m making my jump off.
Or we can trade him to the NL for two minor leaguers, cash and a bucket of new baseballs where he goes 20-8 and contends a Cy Young.