The Cleveland Indians haven’t reached the playoffs since earning a 2013 AL Wild Card berth, but manager Terry Francona has reasons to be optimistic following an 81-80 campaign.
First off, the organization has posted three consecutive winning seasons. That hasn’t happened since guys like Jim Thome, Omar Vizquel and Roberto Alomar were on the roster in the late ‘90s.
Another reason involves Cleveland’s young, controllable and effective pitching staff. The starting rotation includes an impressive top three of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar. Trevor Bauer is still inconsistent, but is young enough and has enough potential to blossom into a decent pitcher – especially at the back of Cleveland’s rotation.
ESPN's Buster Olney has the Tribe's rotation at no. 2 looking ahead to 2016. We'll take it.https://t.co/dSj2KHfC7U pic.twitter.com/RwwtjtqHWJ
— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) January 13, 2016
According to Fangraphs metrics, Indians starters were among the American League’s best in a number of categories, including WAR, FIP and xFIP. One would assume that with a solid nucleus on the mound, the front office would attempt to find an impact bat or two to help this “ho-hum” offense get taken to the next level.
There’s one problem, though: the Indians are running on a tight budget.
While the free-agent market still includes top-tier outfield options (Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton) and other intriguing ones (like Dexter Fowler), Cleveland isn’t seriously in on any of those players.
They entered the offseason with notable holes at both corners in the infield and outfield. To fill those needs, they’ve signed Rajai Davis for the outfield, Mike Napoli to hopefully bounce back at first base, and are reportedly interested in Juan Uribe to pair with Giovanny Urshela at third base.
Solid signings? Yes. Moves that will get them over the hump and into the playoffs? That’s tough to answer. Actually, the answer is probably not.
Cleveland is strong up the middle with Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor, but neither can carry an offense during a hot streak. Carlos Santana has that potential, but he’s way too inconsistent. Yan Gomes is a solid option behind the plate, but he’s not going to hit like Mike Piazza. Michael Brantley could carry the club, but he’s coming off shoulder surgery and won’t be available until after Opening Day.
Plus, if anyone expects him to immediately return to pre-surgery form isn’t being realistic. So, there’s a lot of “if this all goes right, then we’ll be really good” instead of actual confidence when it comes to this lineup.
Before @TheJK_Kid earned his MLB rep, he was causing opponents headaches on the gridiron.https://t.co/s4J0qKenKk pic.twitter.com/eVWFsjwOkU
— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) January 8, 2016
Spring Training is closing in on us. It’s a time where most organizations are optimistic about their chances of competing, and Cleveland has reasons to be excited. After all, as Grant Brisbee of SB Nation said, the New York Mets went from an uninspiring offseason to the World Series in 2015 after making impactful mid-year acquisitions. Could that be a viable strategy for the Indians?
The Mets got off to a quick start in April, but were only able to tread water to the non-waiver trade deadline because of their terrific pitching staff. It allowed them to see if they truly had a chance at October baseball, making the investments more worthwhile than they would’ve been in the winter when nobody knew how good they could be.
For a team playing on a budget like the Indians, this makes sense. It allows them to only pay if they’re sure they can be competitive, possibly reach October and also gain some extra revenue from that potential success. However, there’s one big difference between how the Mets reached the postseason and how the Indians could try doing the same thing: the division in which they play in.
New York can thank its pitching staff for still being in the hunt around last year’s trade deadline, but they should really be thanking the overall lackluster play of the NL East.
The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies were never any good, and not many expected them to be. The Miami Marlins had some promise, but they eventually didn’t meet expectations. So, the only hurdle New York had to jump over was the preseason World Series favorite, the Washington Nationals. Thankfully for the Amazins, they also swung and missed with regard to expected performance.
When put in perspective, the Mets’ 90-72 record wouldn’t have even qualified for the postseason if they resided in either the NL Central or NL West. Were they really good down the stretch? Absolutely, but they also had a few things go in their favor.
For the Indians, their obstacles to reach the playoffs are much more difficult. The Detroit Tigers disappointed last year by finishing in last place, but they have re-tooled and will at the very least be a competitive thorn in the side of their fellow division-mates.
With acquisitions of Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie, along with being interested in welcoming an impact outfield bat, the Chicago White Sox have greatly improved their offense to pair with an already fantastic starting rotation. The Minnesota Twins don’t seem to scare many, but manager Paul Molitor will aim to have them competitive again.
Then, there’s the Kansas City Royals, who are reigning World Series champions and still have the strong nucleus together that helped them post an AL-best 95-67 record last season.
Basically, if the Indians don’t make a move for an impact bat to help bring some more certainty to their offense for Opening Day, getting to the next level with a big trade deadline acquisition may never materialize.
It already the middle of January, but opportunities to make significant improvements are still available. As one immediate example, the Colorado Rockies have to trade Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon or Corey Dickerson after signing Gerardo Parra to a three-year deal on Tuesday, right?
While looking at the Mets’ success last season can be encouraging for Cleveland, they should also look at what Kansas City did this winter. They would have ultimately loved to have signed Alex Gordon to a deal worth less than $72 million, but they also know they need him because now is their window of opportunity to keep winning. So, they stretched beyond their comfort zone and got what they needed.
Stretching limits for teams with tight budgets doesn’t mean throwing $100-plus million at Upton, Cespedes or another top hitter. It means going after someone like Fowler, who could cost anywhere between what Denard Span recently signed for (three years, $31 million) and Gordon (four years, $72 million). It’s still a risk, but a necessary one that Cleveland should take.
Pros and cons are constantly evident when teams are trying to justify making one or two more acquisitions that can put them into serious contention. In some instances, it’s a sound strategy to see if the core of a roster can hold up for a few months before going all-in like the Mets did in 2015, but the stars certainly aligned to make that a possibility.
From what it appears, the Indians will need many more stars to align in order to be in New York’s position come the end of July. And it’s tough to imagine other teams in the AL Central either regressing or staying the same based off the roster improvements made this winter.
Cleveland can roll the dice, virtually stand pat leading up to Spring Training and hope they’re in the mix once the summer hits, or take matters into their own hands right now. If they go with the first option, their 2016 outcome could be decided before they get a chance to have a say.
Thanks for reading! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter so we can get through a winter without baseball together: @mmusico8.
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