Mark it down. July 19, the Indians postseason run was over before..
Just kidding. Yeah, the Indians are just a ½ game up on the Twins as of this article and while they clearly have some issues to address (mostly internal ones or health) their priority at the trading deadline should be on making moves that put them in the best position to win in the playoffs and not be better in the regular season. That being said, here’s some names they could look at and some of their trade chips that could be used in such deals, broken into tiers.
Infield
Most people want the Indians to make a deal for a starting pitcher but with Danny Salazar coming back, Mike Clevinger coming into his own and Josh Tomlin having two straight good starts, the Indians seem set to at least hold serve on the rotation at least for a moment to see what Salazar does Saturday and if Corey Kluber’s neck isn’t an issue.
Eduardo Nunez: (SF – 3B/INF – 1 year deal): ESPN’s Buster Olney reported on Twitter on Wednesday night that the Indians were checking into the San Francisco Giants third basemen. He currently has a leg issue but is slashing a modest .295/.310/.407 (95 wRC+) and 17 steals. He’s a bit of a negative any almost any defensive position he plays (mostly third base right now) but if the Indians don’t feel Giovanny Urshela and Erik Gonzalez’s defense will be enough to offset their offensive shortcomings, this may be the way they go. Or it’s an indication Jason Kipnis may be out longer than they think.
Indians are scouting infielder Eduardo Nunez, among others.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 20, 2017
Jed Lowrie: (OAK – 2B – $6 million in ‘18 or $1 million buyout): The 33 year old former utility infielder is only a second basemen at moment but in the past two years has filled in at shortstop and third base without completely embarrassing himself. There’s no reports connecting the Indians to Lowrie yet but he’s 10th among second basemen with a 112 wRC+ and the Indians can keep him for 2018 at a reasonable cost if they feel he’s worth it or give him $1 million to move on. They could do this until Kipnis comes back if they want to keep Jose Ramirez at third.
Asdrubal Cabrera: (NYM SS/2B – $8.5 million in ‘18 or $2 million buyout): Cabrera has made comments this year that the Mets should trade him if they want him to move off of shortstop. He should move off of shortstop (-10 DRS, -17.2 UZR/150). But, maybe a return to Cleveland and the playoffs might make him feel better about only playing second base where he’s not a dumpster fire in the field. He’s been banged up this year and has posted a 98 wRC+ but his walk rate (10.0%) and strikeout rate (14.3%) are some of the best he’s had in his career. His .263 BABIP and unchanged batted ball profile from 2016 (when he posted a 119 wRC+) suggest he’s been unlucky. The Indians love trading for ex-Indians and if his attitude about his role here is in the right place, don’t be surprised.
Yunel Escobar: (LAA – 3B – 1 year deal): There’s no indication that the Angels are committed to selling but it wouldn’t be a shock. I remember in years past that there was talk about some sort of attitude issues possibly but nothing I can remember concretely but unlike Lowrie and Nunez, Escobar is specifically a third basemen and shouldn’t play elsewhere. But he does have a 108 wRC+ which is probably more than Urshela and Martinez can provide for another month of at bats (if that’s how long Kipnis is out) but would their defense even that out? Nunez and Lowrie are probably better options.
Outfield
Fox’s Jon Morosi said earlier on Wednesday that the Indians were the only other team in serious pursuit of now former Tigers OF J.D Martinez aside from the Diamondbacks who actually acquired him. What that says about the Indians like the Kipnis situation, is that they are concerned about production while Lonnie Chisenhall is out, they are concerned he will be out quite a while and they also felt because Martinez was a rental as well, his cost would have been more prohibitive to them then adding a long term hitter. So who else could they target? There’s potentially left handed options out there like Daniel Nava and Nick Markakis that could platoon with Brandon Guyer but given their empty batting averages and track records, the Indians are probably better off hoping for league average production from a combination of Tyler Naquin or Abraham Almonte vs. RHP. The Indians may actually consider a rental in the case of a bat since they considered Martinez.
#Indians were only other team seriously involved in J.D. Martinez pursuit this week, source said. Certainly influenced #Tigers return. @MLB
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 19, 2017
Curtis Granderson: (NYM – 1 year deal): Despite hitting .228, Granderson carries a 108 wRC+ with walk and strikeout rates that are all around career averages even though he’s 36 years old. He’s slugging .463 and is actually showing to be a solid defensive right fielder this year according to his +2 DRS and 40.1 UZR/150. The Mets are definitely sellers, he’s on a one year deal and Granderson has been long known as one of the highest character players in baseball and good in the clubhouse, which maybe the Indians need right now.
Jay Bruce: (NYM – 1 year deal): Bruce is a free agent at the end of the year who has 24 homers and a 127 wRC+. Somehow, his defense isn’t hot garbage this year (+3 DRS, 2.0 UZR/150). Given the small market for corner outfield bats this year, the Indians might be able to get him on the cheap.
Seth Smith: (BAL – 1 year deal): It sounds like the Orioles ownership has given the go-ahead to sell off some short term pieces and Smith is a free agent at the year’s end. He’s a good platoon right fielder with a 109 wRC+.His walk rate is down and this is his OBP so he probably won’t fit into the leadoff role here like he had in Baltimore in 2016.
Starting pitching
The Indians have already been linked to Sonny Gray and may have other interest in the pitching market. This weekend will probably be the indicator which way the Indians go with Salazar returning and Kluber’s neck.
RHP Sonny Gray: (OAK – club controlled through 2019 season): Gray’s strikeout rate, walk rate and subsequently FIP, are all around his 2014 level’s when he was talked about as an ace or near it. There are some concerns, mainly health (and cost) but he’s truly the top arm that is currently known to be available at the deadline. He’ll cost two of the Indians top-10, possible five prospects if they talk.
RHP Trevor Cahill: (SD – 1 year deal): Cahill is having a career year because he’s going with his good curveball as his main pitch. He strikeouts are way up but he also has some heavy home/road splits even if his peripherals suggest his inflated road ERA is a little bad luck. The SP trade market is robust and a lot of teams will be interested in Cahill so the Padres can set a cost for him that’s way more than he’s worth and maybe still get it.
LHP Jaime Garcia: (ATL – 1 year deal): His strikeout rate has come down recently and his FIP is around Tomlin range but unlike Tomlin, Garcia’s fastball sits at 91 on average and his ground ball rate is much higher (54.7% to Tomlin’s 39.5%). He’s got playoff experience and does miss more bats than Tomlin as well, but it remains to be seen who he’d replace because it’s not as if he or Cahill are clear upgrades over Bauer or Tomlin because Clevinger has solidified his spot in the rotation.
LHP Sean Manaea: (OAK – under club control through 2023): For the record, Manaea isn’t on the block and there have been no rumors saying the A’s would move him. But if you ask, any team will listen and Manaea fits the Indians bill more than Gray in many ways as a trade target. A lot of club control, great ground ball rate, misses a lot of bats with so much more upside left. If the Indians are going to trade top prospects for a starting pitcher and want someone with club control, Manaea is more worth the cost than Gray.
Other SPs include Dan Straily, Scott Feldman, and the Padres Jhoulys Chacin. All aren’t better than what the Indians currently have. Marco Estrada’s name has been thrown around but if the Jays want to sell, the Indians are better off targeting Marcus Stroman for the same reasons listed above for Manaea.
Relief pitching
If the cost of starting pitching is too prohibitive (this seems likely) the Indians best bet is to do what the Yankees did and jump the reliever market. Shortening games in the playoffs when you’re not sure about your rotation with a great bullpen is better than trying to add a question mark starting pitcher.
LHP Tony Watson: (PIT – 1 year deal): The Indians are now in the market for a left handed reliever because it looks like Boone Logan is going to be out for a bit, who knows how long. Watson is a free agent at years end and though his FIP and xFIP aren’t inspiring, he has a lot of back end of the bullpen experience.
LHP Felipe Rivero: (PIT – club control through 2021): Rivero would cost the Indians a lot more than possibly any reliever on the market and there’s no word on if the Pirates even want to move him. But his 1.7 fWAR is 7th best among relievers in baseball plus being under club control. I’m not sure the Indians will want to pay the cost for another reliever but they would also have him for when Andrew Miller is a free agent, so this would be a good short term and long term play for them.
LHP Brad Hand: (SD- club control through 2019): Hand is up there in terms of production, club control and potential cost like Rivero. The only difference is that the Padres are most likely to deal Hand and he could be a long and short term play for the Indians. I’m not sure how the Indians will play this but Logan’s injury really hurts their bullpen depth and they need another solid lefty ahead of Miller to help best utilize him. Hand makes a lot of sense for the Indians.
RHP Jim Johnson: (ATL – club control through 2018): The Braves are going to be short term sellers and it probably makes sense for them to get what they can for Johnson. He’s sporting a career high strikeout rate, his usual high groundball rate and also provides back end of the bullpen experience. Maybe the Indians pay for a package of Garcia and Johnson to fill two needs in one trade.
RHP Anthony Swarzak: (CHW – 1 year deal): Swarzak was an Indian in 2015 and had fairly average results. I can’t remember what caused their split, but Swarzak all of the sudden is averaging 94 on his fastball after being a tick slower before. As a rental, the White Sox are better off flipping him for something but will the Indians make an in division trade?
Catcher
I’m just going to put this here. I’d be surprised if the Indians dealt for a catcher again. They’d have to either want to move on from one of Yan Gomes or Roberto Perez and Terry Francona likes both and they’re both under team friendly deals despite their offensive shortcomings. Jonathan Lucroy in 2016 was a perfect storm due to his contract and Gomes/Perez’s injuries. There doesn’t seem to be the same fit this year so they are where they are at catcher.
The prospects
Here’s the hard part. Without proposing who would go where in a deal for the targets above, I’ve broken their prospects into tiers in what they would net in a trade as well as what their worth might be in terms of how much the Indians need to get in return for trading each tier.
Top prospects
C Francisco Mejia, RHP Triston McKenzie
The Indians won’t be dealing either of their top two prospects unless the return is someone controllable, potentially Gray but hopefully someone with even more club control, upside and less question marks. Mejia is a potential All-Star with the bat and glove and McKenzie is dominating High-A hitters at 19 despite having a ton of projection left.
Just below first tier
1B Bobby Bradley, SS Yu-Cheng Chang, 3B/OF Yandy Diaz, OF Greg Allen, SS Willi Castro
These are the prospect who the Indians might have to deal for a reliever with control left as well as being in the package for a Gray or another controllable starter. Almost all of these players should be off limits for any rental pitcher or bat, unless it’s a 1-for-1 trade. Bradley has made huge strides in cutting his strikeouts without sacrificing power at 21 in Double-A, which is an enormous step. Chang is 21 and hitting for power despite contact issues but still plays SS but his bat could play at second or third. People like Diaz but his versatility and upside with the bat could make him an interesting trade chip. Allen is recovering from a hammate injury and his age holds him back being that he’s only in Double-A but he’s a plus defender in centerfield who should get on base and steal bases. Castro should stay shortstop long term and is starting to handle the bat.
Second tier
3B Nolan Jones, LHP Juan Hillman, RHP Shane Bieber, 2B Tyler Kriger, RHP Aaron Civale
These are all players who the Indians would use in a less high profile trade but likely names they’d prefer to receive someone with club control remaining. They would be second or third names in a major trade and aside from Hillman or Krieger, none of these guys should be traded for a rental. Jones may not have much trade value right now but he still has a lot of upside. Hillman is starting to settle in at Low-A and Bieber and Civale are control specialists who should both be back end type starters. Krieger is having a rough year but looks like a poor man’s Jason Kipnis at second base.
Third tier
LHP Rob Kaminsky, RHP Julian Merryweather, OF Andrew Calica, OF Connor Capel, LHP Thomas Pannone, RHP Matt Esparza, OF Ka’ai Tom, 2B Mark Mathias, LHP Luis Lugo, OF Oscar Gonzalez, OF Gabriel Mejia
All names available for a rental type return and players that would be a third or fourth piece in a bigger deal.
Fourth tier
INF Ulysses Cantu, OF Mike Papi, SS Eric Stamets, RHP Dalbert Siri, RHP Ryder Ryan, OF Mike Papi, RHP Micah Miniard, RHP Leandro Linares
I don’t know if Cantu has a ton of value but he’s a name that could be part of a rental package or lottery tickets like the rest of these guys as a fourth name in a deal
(Will Benson and Brady Aiken are currently not real big trade chips for the Indians because of their struggles at their respective levels and have low trade value.)
Others
The Indians could use Giovanny Urshela, Erik Gonzalez, Ryan Merritt, Adam Plutko, Shawn Morimando and Tyler Naquin in deals but all have made their debuts. They’re all about in the same tier as far as prospect value, somewhere between second and third tier prospects in terms of net return.
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