The clock is ticking for Jeff Locke

After another rough outing, the clock is ticking on Jeff Locke’s time with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

During the first half of 2013, it looked like Jeff Locke had finally turned a corner.  He held a 2.01 ERA as late as June 19, which earned him his first, and only to date, All-Star game appearance, but by the end of the season, it had ballooned to a league average of 3.52.  That year, Locke got off to a poor start, but he rebounded after his third start.

At the start of spring training, I broke down what Locke had to do to get back to that 2013 form.  The main focus was him having to trust hit pitches more.  In 2013, his fourseam fastball was his best pitch by far, and he used it to set up the sinker and curveball, but once he began to struggle, Locke nearly abandoned the fourseam fastball in favor of the sinker as his primary pitch.  The change in sequence made him more predictable and less likely to get batters swinging and missing.

At the end of spring training, Aaron Benedict returned to the topic to break down three keys to a successful season for Locke.  Two of the issues went hand in hand, don’t nibble and fewer walks.  Locke is known for trying to live on the edge of the plate.  If that isn’t working, he starts to work outside of the zone, and if he can’t get a lucky break with a bad call or hitters chasing bad pitches, Locke has to come back right over the heart of the plate.  It’s a tendency he’s developed over years of inefficiency, and all the Ray Searage magic in the world has yet to be able to get him to stop doing it.  Now, the trepidation Locke gets from attacking hitters and mixing his pitches could ultimately prove to be his downfall.

Over the first three starts of 2013, Locke was attacking left-handed hitters in the heart of the strike zone, and the results were what you would expect of pitching into the wheelhouse of a left-handed hitter.  Against right-handed hitters, he was focusing on pitching in, but Locke also experienced the same problem of hitters getting a hold of pitches left out over the plate.  He went on to correct that flaw.  It would be simple if he still had the same problem, but it appears that wherever Locke throws it over the course of his first three starts, hitters are still hitting it.

For comparison, here’s the pitch f/x statistics from his last outing on Wednesday night in San Diego:

Now, here’s the pitch f/x statistics from his first outing of 2016:

Notice the discrepancies in the velocity and vertical movement in regards to his sinker.  Given the fact Locke has been struggling with control, a drop in velocity isn’t necessarily cause for concern – yet, although typically a decrease in velocity on a sinker is met with an increase in movement.  This has not been the case.  In any event, Locke is struggling mightily with fourseam fastball control, and if the sinker joins it as being unreliable, the Pirates will struggle to win any start in which Locke pitches.  Even if he can figure it out, it’s only a matter of time before Jameson Taillon or Tyler Glasnow knock him out of the rotation.  Once that happens, the Neal Huntington and the Pirates front office will have a decision to make.

Locke is making $3.025 million this season through arbitration.  He has minimal trade value, although having two years of arbitration control after 2016 certainly doesn’t hurt.  Locke has a slash line of .253/.335/.363 against him the first time through the lineup for his career.  Kyle Lobstein was designated as the second left-handed reliever, aside from Tony Watson, on the opening day roster, but he has gotten off to a terrible start with a 5.25 ERA through his first five appearances.  Locke could thrive in a relief role, or he could crash and burn.  Of course, swapping Lobstein with Locke only happens if someone can replace Locke in the rotation.

In that regard, Locke is like a paperweight.  At times, he can serve a purpose and keep things organized, and at other times, he becomes an obstruction holding back whatever, or in this case, whomever is trapped waiting for the opportunity to be seen.  Ryan Vogelsong had a solid performance in his emergency spot start in place of Francisco Liriano.  All signs indicate that would not continue if he were to be placed in the rotation.  Jameson Taillon looks better than ever after his first two starts back with the Indianapolis Indians, and Tyler Glasnow is right behind him knocking on the door.

It’s now or never for Locke, and even that may not be enough to keep him in a Pirates uniform beyond the All-Star break.

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