In lieu of our normal analysis, I thought we would take a look at the analysis of some Tribe fans on twitter yesterday, particularly considering the Indians closer Cody Allen. Since this is a G rated site, I had to do some sifting, but below are some good ones.
When can we cut Cody Allen, and find an actual good closer? @Indians
— evan gorbach (@gmoney165) April 21, 2016
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@Indians Can we please stop the Cody Allen experiment? He’s garbage and now you’re going to lose this game
— Jennifer Lyn (@jls1792) April 21, 2016
@Indians get rid of Cody Allen all he does is blow games
— Nolan (@NolanAnderson2) April 21, 2016
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Cody Allen and Bryan Shaw will lose at least 30-40 games this year @Indians they are straight trash
— Marco Cipriani (@MarcoCipriani8) April 21, 2016
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That was Cody Allen’s best inning of the yr, in a non-save situation no less. know its early, but a game like this can really turn the tide
— Max Andrew (@msternberg76) April 21, 2016
Wait, how did that last one get in there. Oh, well. It just goes to show how quickly things can turn on you when you pitch in high leverage situations. To be fair, we should look into whether or not Cody Allen is, in fact, “straight trash.”
To begin, any one of these commentator’s must not believe in advanced stats. If they did, they would already know that Allen lead all of Major League Baseball’s many relievers last season in WAR (2.6) and FIP (1.82). Of course, if you don’t like FIP, you probably don’t like K/9 either (one of it’s base components) and wouldn’t care that Allen finished with a 12.9, fifth among MLB relief pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched. Largely considered the best closer in the National League, Aroldis Chapman finished the year with a WAR of 2.5 and FIP of 1.94.
One thing everyone can agree on is that it’s important to get the job done and Allen did not do that yesterday. He allowed the three run home run from Robinson Cano that broke the tie game in the tenth on his 30th pitch of the game. Going back to last year, Allen saved 34 of 38 opportunities (Chapman had just 33) and in his career, Allen has completed 75 of 86 save and hold situations for a rate of 87% and 64 of 75 not considering holds for a rate of 85%.
To see if Allen is “straight trash” it is only fair that we compare Allen to the greatest closer in the history of baseball, Mariano Rivera. Rivera got a later start than Allen, but ultimately pitched until he was 43, completing 89% of opportunities, whether considering just saves or saves and holds. Much of Rivera’s greatest success came, however, in his mid-30’s and when he was Allen’s age (27), he completed just 83% of saves in 1997 and just 85% in his first two seasons as closer. If only twitter had been around in the late 1990’s, the Yankees fans could have attacked the future Hall of Famer as vehemently as Indians fans did Allen, sparing the franchise his MLB record 652 saves.
It’s not all about saves though as this particular situation was not one. It’s about how many home runs Allen allows. The answer to that is 20 in his entire career. Of those twenty, only one was to walk off a game and four have come in a tie game like the one last night. To judge whether or not this is a good rate or if the Indians should “find an actual good closer” we can look at his career HR/9 rate which is 0.7. As a number by itself is meaningless, we can again compare to the illustrious Rivera and see that his career HR/9 was 0.5. The trio of current Yankees star relievers, Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Chapman had HR/9 rates of 0.6, 0.7 and 0.4 last year for further judgement.
Of the career 71 home runs that Rivera allowed, 9 came in tie games in the 9th inning or later and five were walk offs including one by the infamous Bill Selby and others by prodigious power hitters, Ichiro Suzuki and Bill Mueller. So far this year, Allen has already allowed two home runs, the total number he allowed in all of 2015. Rivera allowed two or less home runs just four times in his 19 year career.
You may ask, why the constant comparison to Rivera? The answer is that it is because I can. Not only is it possible, but despite Rivera being the greatest ever, Allen doesn’t fall too far beyond. When compared against others currently in the league, Allen was the best in baseball in 2015 and it is hard to believe that at the age of 27, he has hit his peak.
As for the Indians, it is fair to say that Allen is the greatest closer in franchise history and within a few years, he will have the cumulative stats to back up the rate stats he’s already produced. It may be fun for Browns fans have an “on to the next one attitude” proclaiming the next QB as the franchise saver until he actually takes up the mantle himself, but this isn’t a franchise that finishes last in their division every year. There is not a next one for the Indians to cut/DFA/trade Allen to make room for because Allen is the first closer in Indians history to put up consistent numbers this good for this long.
You wouldn’t judge a man by a single day’s work, would you? Particularly when he had already went above and beyond the call of duty, retiring five batters in a role that generally only requires a man to retire three. If anything, there could be blame on Terry Francona for pushing Allen for two innings in a tie game, to 30 pitches after he had already walked two batters, but even that is slightly harsh. Francona knows that Allen is the best pitcher in his bullpen and he, rightly, trusts him when the game is on line. If you want to crucify Allen for making one bad pitch to one great hitter, perhaps sir or ma’am, it is you who are straight trash.
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