College Basketball Preview: Juniors

Looking ahead to the 2015 draft, which juniors can make their case to be first-round picks when June rolls around?

With age comes wisdom. It is a cliché used in a variety of situations to apply to a variety of people. In regards to the NBA Draft, however, it does not necessarily help a prospect’s case to be selected.

As one can decipher by reading the previews written about the top NCAA freshmen and sophomores, NBA teams often value potential and growth more than an already defined skill set. Fair or not, it often pushes juniors down the draft board. In 2014, only two juniors were selected in the first round: Elfrid Payton and PJ Hairston (who ended up leaving school to play in the D-League). Will 2015 be any different?

Unlike last season, many sophomores with potential to be a first round pick decided not to declare for the draft. The junior class in 2015 is stronger than usual, headlined by Caris LeVert, Montrezl Harrell and Willie Cauley-Stein. If they perform as expected the first round will await.

What other juniors are noteworthy to watch as the college basketball season rapidly approaches?

ACC

Montrezl Harrell | PF | Louisville (Big Board Rank: 12)

Harrell might be the best rebounder in all of college basketball, and is a constant threat to posterize a defender with a powerful dunk. Sounds a lot like Thomas Robinson at Kansas doesn’t it? Harrell would have been a lottery pick in 2014, and is a favorite to be drafted within the top-14 again in June, but he needs to show the ability to take on a bigger offensive role, and truly be one of the ACC’s top players.

Brice Johnson | PF | North Carolina (Big Board Rank: 28)

Johnson was comically underused by Roy Williams as a sophomore. The power forward averaged 10.3 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.3 blocks in just 19 minutes per game. Now that James Michael McAdoo is out of the picture, look for Johnson to step into a prominent role UNC’s best interior play. With similar progression as between his first two seasons, his numbers could be All-ACC level, and get him drafted in the lottery.

Marcus Paige | PG | North Carolina (Big Board Rank: 53)

Paige is a top contender to win the Naismith Award in 2015. As an NBA prospect, Paige is a terrific 3-point shooter and has good court vision to find his teammates. In an up-tempo offense, Paige cut his turnovers to 2.1 per game as a sophomore while increasing his scoring average to 17.5. He reads passing lanes well and closes out on shooters, but concerns remain over his athletic ability. If he can score consistently against the most athletic one-on-one defenders, that theory will be quashed to a reasonable extent.

Others to keep an eye on: Olivier Hanlan (Boston College), Mike Tobey (Virginia), Rasheed Sulaimon (Duke), Aaron Thomas (Florida State)

Big Ten

Caris LeVert | SG | Michigan (Big Board Rank: 9)

Projecting LeVert as a top-10 player might be seen as a slight stretch in the preseason, but his ability to defend NBA-caliber wings and score from the perimeter will have scouts drooling. He shot over 40 percent from downtown as a sophomore, while averaging 2.9 assists and 1.2 steals. With Stauskas and Robinson III now in the NBA, LeVert is a prime candidate to take over the lead scoring role for Big Blue. He will not disappoint.

Sam Dekker | SF | Wisconsin (Big Board Rank: 20)

Dekker is stuck in Bo Ryan’s plodding offense, and has been unable to exert himself as the go-to option in Madison. As a junior, he needs to show scouts that he can consistently get to the rim and hit outside jump shots when the ball is swung to him in the corner. He could be the best rebounding small forward in the country. He has terrific size and athleticism for an NBA wing, which bumps him into consideration for the late-lottery. The big question is whether he can put all his tools together for a dominant year.

Another to keep an eye on: AJ Hammons (Purdue)

Big 12

Buddy Hield | SG | Oklahoma (Big Board Rank: 76)

Hield is a volume shooter from three-point range, though managed to shoot nearly 39 percent from beyond the arc as a sophomore. Managing his shot selection is important, though he is the only NBA-caliber player on the Sooners’ roster. He has not been a great distributor throughout his first two years, and has posted an assist to turnover ratio of 1. Showing he can create for others will go a long way towards pushing him into the first round.

Another to keep an eye on: Perry Ellis (Kansas)

Pac 12

Kaleb Tarczewski | C | Arizona (Big Board Rank: 50)

Tarczewski will never be an NBA star, but could be a valuable big man off of the bench for a contending team. Is that enough to get him selected in the first round? The 7-footer only averaged one block per game as a sophomore, and does not have the natural instincts that many other center prospects have. Offensively, he is ahead of the game. He shoots well from the free throw line and midrange, and can score with his back to the basket. He plays in a crowded frontcourt, but his defensive evolution as a rim protector is the key to his NBA draft status.

Brandon Ashley | SF | Arizona (Big Board Rank: 63)

Ashley is a tweener forward who projects better as an NBA small forward. He is a good rebounder from the wing, and is an efficient player, though needs to round out his scoring ability by knocking down more 3’s. He shot 38 percent as a sophomore on 1.3 attempts per game. With Nick Johnson gone, and Hollis-Jefferson and Johnson next to him in the starting lineup, there is a need for outside shooting. If Ashley steps up, and can stay healthy (a big if at this point), he could be a first round pick.

Another to keep an eye on: Josh Scott (Colorado)

SEC

Willie Cauley-Stein | C | Kentucky (Big Board Rank: 11)

It is easy to be excited about Cauley-Stein as a prospect. He can play above the rim, runs the floor like a guard, and is an elite shot-blocker and rebounder. Unfortunately, that is all he is at this point: a prospect. Cauley-Stein the basketball player is a significant work-in-progress, as his offensive ability is far behind his competitors. Showing he can be more than an alley-oop target, and establishing himself as Kentucky’s starting center in a loaded frontcourt will go a long way in keeping a high draft status. Based on potential and natural ability, he should be a top-10 pick.

Alex Poythress | SF | Kentucky (Big Board Rank: 34)

Poythress is the definition of an elite athlete. At the recent Kentucky combine, Poythress posted a 41.5-inch vertical and bench pressed 185 pounds 26 times — one of the highest ever recorded according to DraftExpress’ database. He reportedly played very well in the summer circuit, and was especially persistent slashing and rebounding. He likely starts alongside Karl Towns and Cauley-Stein, and will play the “3,” albeit a big one. He projects as a tweener, but showing he can be a well-rounded offensive threat can push him back into the first round picture.

Michael Frazier II | SG | Florida (Big Board Rank: 40)

What skill do NBA general manager’s covet most? The answer could go in a plethora of different ways, but 3-point shooting has to be near the top of the list. Frazier II is an elite outside shooter who made nearly 45 percent of his three point attempts last year. He is a one-tool player who needs to show he can be a consistent defender on the wing, especially when guarding bigger and more athletic shooting guards. 3-and-D players are always drafted higher than pure shooters.

Another to keep an eye on: Michael Qualls (Arkansas)

Others

RJ Hunter | SG | Georgia State (Big Board Rank: 29)

In search of the next mid-major player to be drafted in the lottery? Look no further! Hunter averaged 18.3 points as a sophomore for a Georgia State team that looks like a potential Cinderella team in March. He can create his own shot from all over the court, and is not a slouch defensively. He is a low-mistake player who only averaged 1.2 turnovers per game as a second-year player. The coach’s son could lead the NCAA in scoring as a junior.

Shawn Long | PF | Louisiana-Lafayette (Big Board Rank: 41)

Could there be players from Louisiana-Lafayette drafted in back-to-back first rounds? Shawn Long could make that a reality. The Ragin’ Cajuns’ power forward has averaged a double-double in each of his first two seasons, and increased his scoring average to 18.6 per game as a sophomore. At 6-9 he is slightly undersized, but his length and athleticism alleviate many of those concerns. He is a near-elite shot blocker who needs to continue his current trend of play. He is squarely on the NBA radar as a potential first rounder.

Przemek Karnowski | C | Gonzaga (Big Board Rank: 49)

A top recruit three years ago, Karnowski finally looks ready to step into the center of Gonzaga’s game plan. At 7-1 and near 300 pounds, Karnowski is tough to handle inside on both ends. He is a skilled passer from the interior, and can score over both shoulders with a jump hook when his back is to the basket. He is not an elite athlete, and is a horrendous free throw shooter, but the potential as a good backup center could have contenders calling in the late-first round. Keep an eye on the big man in Spokane this year.

Others to keep in mind: Ron Baker (Wichita State), AJ English (Iona), Patricio Garino (George Washington)

Juniors are often forgotten about in the NBA Draft landscape, and those who wind up declaring are often the ones who should have waited an extra year. The temptations of professional basketball are within reach. Can the 25 players listed take advantage and make the jump to the NBA?

Realistically, some will play their way into the draft but not declare, while others will not live up to the NBA hype. Many of these players, among those who declare, will hear their names called by Adam Silver or Mark Tatum. The biggest challenge for this group is showing a skill set and ceiling that outweighs the potential of an underclassmen. Can they do it?

Get your popcorn ready.