College Basketball Preview: Seniors

It is the last chance for seniors around the country to prove they should be selected in the NBA draft. Which ones stand above the rest?

It is the final year. The final chance. The final countdown.

The senior class in college basketball has spent three years (or in some cases more) on the hardwood working to make a significant impact that leads to wins. The players with a chance to get drafted have had to show significant improvement since the first steps on campus, with one more year to show scouts who have seen them numerous times that there is a place in the league for player X.

Very few mysteries come out of the senior class. Most are known commodities destined to be role players or spot starters. The Damian Lillards of a senior class come about once in a decade. Five seniors were selected in the first round in 2014: Doug McDermott, Adreian Payne, Shabazz Napier, CJ Wilcox and Josh Heustis. The first four were well-known by June, with scouts and front office executives generally knowing the type of player they will become. CJ McCollum and Solomon Hill were the only seniors selected in 2013’s first round. The same story applies.

There are seniors in this draft class who will be taken in the first round. As freshman, sophomores, juniors and non-auto eligible international players withdraw from the draft, seniors see the largest bump. Only one senior is found in the top 30 of the opening big board: Utah guard Delon Wright. By the time the draft rolls around, enough players will have withdrawn to help other seniors join the Utah guard, assuming he plays well as a senior.

What players will prove their worth in the final year on campus?

ACC

Jerian Grant | PG | Notre Dame (Big Board Rank: 65)

Grant was suspended after just 12 games last year, and his removal from the court ruined Notre Dame’s season. He had posted career-best numbers in points (19.0), assists (6.2), steals (2.0) and shooting percentage (52% floor, 41% 3’s). If he can return to a similar stat line, he will be in contention for ACC Player of the Year, and could rise all the way to the late first round.

Wayne Blackshear | SG | Louisville (Big Board Rank: N/A)

Blackshear was an elite recruit who has never quite played up to his potential. He saw a decrease in minutes as a junior, though he averaged a career-high 8.2 points per game while shooting over 39 percent from beyond the arc. He is a good on-ball defender, but needs to focus on being one of the best in the country if he wants to get drafted in 2015. At 6-5, he has the size GM’s look for in 3-and-D shooting guards.

Chris Jones | PG | Louisville (Big Board Rank: N/A)

When talking about Louisville’s backcourt, Terry Rozier overshadows Chris Jones. That said, Jones is a perfect fit in Rick Pitino’s pressure defense, and he posted the eighth-best steal percentage in the country last year, per Kenpom.com. Jones needs to work on finishing at the rim and becoming a more efficient player offensively. At just 5-10, he has to go above and beyond what is expected of him to get drafted. He is a likely undrafted free agent, but if he emerges in a Russ Smith-esque offensive role, anything could happen.

Big 12

LeBryan Nash | SF | Oklahoma State (Big Board Rank: 84)

Nash is an enigma in that he was a top-tier recruit who has not improved much since his freshman year. He is better off playing a stretch-4 for Travis Ford this year, but at just 6-7, the power forward spot in the NBA is not where he will end up. Nash virtually eliminated the 3-point shot from his offense as a junior, and while he shot a career-high 52 percent from the field, it might hurt his draft stock. Even if he is only taking one shot from 3-point range a game, he needs to show a well-rounded skill set to remain in second-round consideration.

Juwan Staten | PG | West Virginia (Big Board Rank: 85)

Staten stuffs the box score, averaging 18.1 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.8 assists as a junior. He will start the season as a favorite to be the Big 12 Player of the Year, but he has work to do with his draft stock to ensure he is selected. Like Nash above him, Staten is a non-threat from 3-point range. He was 40 percent on 6-15 shooting from downtown as a sophomore, but took 407 shots inside the arc. Staten is decently sized at 6-1, and has a quick first step that helps him on both ends of the court. Remaining efficient and adding a long-range shot are necessary if he wants to be drafted in the second round.

Another to keep an eye on: Dustin Hogue (Iowa State)

Big Ten

Frank Kaminsky | C | Wisconsin (Big Board Rank: 47)

Kaminsky had his coming out party in the NCAA Tournament, with his best game coming against top-seeded Arizona where he had 28 points and 11 rebounds. Over the course of the regular season, he was remarkably average. The Wisconsin big man stands at 7-0 and has legitimate NBA 3-point range, and he is an essential lock to at least be chosen in the second round. Other draft pundits have him in the top 30, but given his production thus far, it is a reach. Kaminsky needs to be a more consistent rebounder and be a go-to player for a team ranked fourth by the coaches in the preseason.

Branden Dawson | SF | Michigan State (Big Board Rank: 57)

Dawson has made his living in college as an undersized power forward who uses his elite athleticism when offensive rebounding and finishing at the rim. He is an efficient scorer, though one who cannot create for himself. At 6-6 he has terrific size for an NBA small forward, and is one of the best rebounders from the wing in the country. However, he has no 3-point shot, and his mid-range game is still a work in progress. Flashes of either could give scouts reason enough to use a selection on Dawson.

Others to keep an eye on: Dez Wells (Maryland), Sam Thompson (Ohio State)

Pac 12

Delon Wright | PG | Utah (Big Board Rank: 25)

At 6-5, Wright has terrific size for an NBA point guard, though he can play both guard positions. As a junior, he posted 15.5 points, 6.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game. More impressively, he averaged 1.3 blocks and 2.5 steals per game. Wright can create for himself, and others, and get to the rim as a slasher, though his borderline elite defense is what will get him drafted in the first round. Cutting his turnovers below two per game will help his stock, as will raising his 3-point percentage above 30 on a respectable number of shots. Wright might just lead Utah back to the NCAA Tournament, where he could shine under the bright lights. He is the highest rated senior on the opening big board.

Norman Powell | SG | UCLA (Big Board Rank: 39)

Norman Powell is a terrific athlete and on-ball defender. He has been stuck as an off-ball guard for much of his college career, and has found a niche as a secondary ball handler. He has shooting guard size at 6-4, though is not as prolific of a shooter as teams will be looking for with a first-round pick. He needs to shoot 35 percent to get into first-round consideration. Throughout his tenure in Los Angeles, he has played with elite recruits who dominate the ball and put up the most shot attempts. Now as a senior, Powell will be a focal point of Steve Alford’s offense, and might finally get a chance to breakout. Be sure you are watching when it happens.

Anthony Brown | SG | Stanford (Big Board Rank: 54)

Brown is a jack-of-all-trades shooting guard who fills the stat sheet. He averaged 12.3 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.1 assists as a junior while shooting 48 percent from the field and 45 percent from 3. He has not necessarily had a green light from Johnny Dawkins, but is an efficient, smart player who chooses his spots well. Playing next to Chasson Randle, who will dominate the ball and put up the most shots, Brown needs to excel in catch-and-shoot situations, but also continue to create for others as a ball handler. At 6-6, Brown is a sleeper for a late first-round pick.

Joseph Young | SG | Oregon (Big Board Rank: 66)

Young is an explosive college scorer who shoots a high percentage (48% floor, 41.5% 3’s). Better suited at shooting guard in the college game, Young needs to prove he can be more than just a scorer to raise his draft stock. He averaged a pedestrian 1.9 assists per game despite having the ball in his hands for long stretches. With Jonathan Loyd and Dominic Artis out of the picture, Young will be relied upon for more distribution. How he responds will be key, as a 6-2 volume shooter from the wing is less likely to get drafted than a 6-2 scoring point guard.

Another to keep an eye on: Chasson Randle (Stanford)

SEC

Antoine Mason | SG | Auburn (Big Board Rank: 83)

The nation’s leading returning scorer, Mason transferred to play under Bruce Pearl for his senior season. He averaged 25.6 points per game as a junior at Niagara, and got to the line prolifically, shooting 10.8 attempts from the stripe per game. He is not a great outside shooter, but will let it fly when getting a decent look. He needs to prove he can consistently be a top scorer against SEC competition and prove his elite first step at Niagara stands the test against elite athletes. A big game against Kentucky would go a long ways in helping his stock.

Another to keep an eye on: MJ Rhett (Ole Miss)

Other

Briante Weber | PG | VCU (Big Board Rank: 61)

Weber has led the country in steal-percentage the past three years, and had an incredible 121 steals as a junior (3.5 per game). Scouts know Weber is an elite defender, but the question marks come on the offensive side of the ball. 6-2 and skinny, Weber is a non-threat from 3-point range, with his outside shot being a set shot rather than a fluid jump shot. He manned the point last year, averaging 3.9 assists, but may be more comfortable playing off the ball. He needs to score more efficiently this year, and use his athleticism to a greater extent offensively.

Alan Williams | C | UC-Santa Barbara (Big Board Rank: 73)

Williams is undersized for an NBA center, but has been consistently productive in the paint for the Gauchos. He averaged a double-double for the second straight year, averaging 21.3 points, 11.5 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game. Williams can score with his back to the basket, and is improving passing out of a double team. In a lot of ways, scouts already know what Williams is: he is not likely to post numbers much better than last year. Leading UCSB to the NCAA Tournament and posting big games against Kansas and Oregon could be huge for his draft stock.

Kenneth Smith | PG | Louisiana Tech (Big Board Rank: 82)

Smith is among the best ball-handlers in the country, averaging 7.7 assists for a team that nearly made the NCAA Tournament in 2014. Together with 7.8 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.5 steals per game, Smith was a major matchup nightmare for opposing point guards. 6-3 and strong, Smith needs to work on his shooting the most. He shot 36.5 percent from 3-point range as a junior and just 65.5 percent from the free throw line. His mechanics are inconsistent. “Speedy” – as he is better known – needs to look to score more often as well, as he took only six shots per game as a junior. It is his show to run, and a scoring bump would do wonders for his draft stock.

Keifer Sykes (Green Bay) | PG | Green Bay (Big Board Rank: 88)

If there is a dark horse candidate to shoot up draft boards this season, Sykes might be found atop the list. The senior averaged 20.3 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.9 assists last year, and returns to Green Bay without his top big man from last season. Sykes, like Smith, needs to shoot the ball better from the perimeter, as he shot just under 31 percent from downtown as a junior. His 81 percent free throw mark is promising for his shot’s development. Sykes is a freak athlete at 6-foot, but is not quite the defender that Smith is. If he can be as big of a matchup nightmare on the defensive end as he is on the offensive end, he could rise to the late first round.

Others to keep an eye on: Treveon Graham (VCU), Wesley Saunders (Harvard), Kevin Pangos (Gonzaga), Larry Nance (Wyoming)

Scouts have often seen these players multiple times in action and even more in the film room. They are well-known. Proving a player is an NBA talent after toiling in mediocrity is a daunting task, and most of the players listed above will put up great numbers this year. Numbers as a senior do not equal lock status to be drafted.

The million dollar question is whether they stand out against elite competition (likely younger, highly touted underclassmen) and have the basketball IQ to help an NBA team right away. A player who does that has a great chance to be drafted.