As soon as college football fans got their postseason playoff like they had always discussed, they started to complain about why it is only four teams. Now arguing the system is just something that comes with the territory so it is likely unavoidable when it comes to NCAA Division 1 Football. I believe the playoff will only grow from here, but that is a separate issue for another day.
I also believe we must be thankful for what we have in the now. Just think if it weren’t for the playoff this year, it would be FSU vs. the winner of the SEC West and every other contender in the nation would just be hoping for a prayer. With the extension of two more teams eligible to win a national title, it has given conferences like the Big 12 and Pac-12 hope to bring home the crystal football. It has also created what college football analysts now call ‘elimination games’. They are regular season games that elevate the winning team to a playoff hopeful and put the dagger through the losing team as a team that has been eliminated.
The most recent elimination game was played last Saturday night in Oxford and was an absolute classic. This weekend is chalked full of them so we can only hope they amount to what we saw last week. Let’s take a look at the potential elimination games on Saturday broken down by conference.
Big Ten
Starting where College Gameday will be stationed this Saturday, we take a look at Michigan State vs. Ohio State. The set will be in the heart of East Lansing for arguably the only big game the Big Ten has had (and will have) all season long. A down year for a power 5 conference, the Big Ten has no depth when you compare it to the other four conferences. These two teams are far and ahead the best teams representing the Big Ten.
The loser of this game will unquestionably watch their playoff dreams go up in flames. The only catch is the winner of this game will still need help to get in. So it is not necessarily a foot in the door, just keeping the aspiration of a seed in the bracket alive for one more week. Michigan State is in much better shape playing at home with their only loss coming to powerhouse Oregon at Autzen Stadium, while Ohio State lost a game in which they were favored to win by multiple scores in at home. Though Buckeye nation may dispute that the biggest loss they suffered this year was before the season even started when Heisman hopeful Braxton Miller suffered a season ending injury, if they are able to go on the road and pull this upset off they will likely be a one loss team going into the final weekend.
Big 12
This conference is going to have the biggest shakeup of them all after this Saturday and with no championship game this is absolutely the biggest weekend of the season. There will be three games consisting of six of the top seven teams in the conference going head to head. The first game to be kicked off this Saturday will be the Bears of Baylor traveling to Norman to take on Bob Stoops’ Sooners. Now going into Norman isn’t as daunting as it used to be known to be, but the Sooner supporters will be in full force this weekend because this is it for them. Baylor will look to remain a one loss team while Oklahoma will try to avoid three losses and the kiss of death.
The other Big 12 heavyweight bout will take place under the lights in Texas as Kansas State will travel to TCU to take on the Horned Frogs. This game has higher stakes because it is #6 in the nation vs. #7. Also because they are both one loss teams with reasonable losses (TCU at Baylor and K-state against Auburn) and big time victories on their schedule. The only thing that separates these two teams in my eyes is their remaining strength of schedule. This is basically it for TCU, so if they win they will likely finish the season 11-1 while this is just the beginning for Kansas State with two more huge conference away games remaining on their schedule.
Not to mention 5 vs. 7 in this conference as the Longhorns play host to a battle tested Mountaineer squad. Dana Holgorsen has undoubtedly turned this program around, but the question at this point in the season is do they have anything left in the tank? Texas is no longer a powerhouse, but at the same time it is not a walk in the park to go there and get a win. Especially coming off of an absolutely draining loss at home to TCU, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a little carry over for WVU making this closer than it should be. Regardless of the outcomes, the foundation of the Big 12 is going to look much different come Tuesday night when the latest four team bracket is released by the committee.
SEC
Now I am not one who believes in magic or mystical things like that, but when it comes to Baton Rouge on a Saturday night in the fall, there is undeniably some voodoo that goes on. It is known as Death Valley where visiting team’s playoff dreams come to die. Even in a ‘rebuilding year’ for Les Miles, his teams has proven tough to beat, especially on their home turf taking down former #3 Mississippi just two weeks ago. As a college football fan, the LSU-Bama game is one you mark off on your calendar each year because they always seem to be barnburners. Bama is one of those on the bubble teams ranking fifth in a four team playoff so they are as close as you can get likely just one loss away from snagging a spot in the dance. LSU is a much different story, a team that got housed by Mississippi State and Auburn at home and then nearly lost to a (for lack of a better word) bad Florida team. Since then they have been on the up and coming, getting some experience under their belt as a young ball club. Also with the SEC West beating themselves up these next couple weeks on the backend of their schedules, they could somehow end up in an SEC championship matchup or potentially even a spot in the playoff if the chips fall a certain way.
Independent
This is probably the most unique matchup with two teams that weren’t expected to be in the top 10 this late in the season. The Fighting Irish will be traveling out to the desert to take on ninth ranked ASU for an unconventional day game at Sun Devil Stadium. Both teams arrive at 7-1, Arizona State benefiting from a few late game fireworks and Notre Dame building the dreaded reputation to playing down (or up) to the competition.
Almost getting upset by 2-4 North Carolina in South Bend and then (just a week later) traveling down to Tallahassee and having the top ranked team in the nation on the ropes. The Sun Devil defense is going to have its hands full with dual threat Everett Golson who knows a thing or two about big games. However you can’t fully trust a defense that blitzes over half the time they are on the field, that being said, ASU has found a way to use it to their advantage this year. However with an offensive mastermind like Brian Kelly, he will undoubtedly have an answer for the Sun Devil pressures and that could leave them very susceptible in the secondary (the same secondary that got shredded by Brent Hundley for 62 points in week 4).
Pac-12
As the Pac-12 typically does, they will make you wait till late Saturday night to see the outcome of their premier game. Kicking off at 10 pm EST and taking us well into the Sunday morning hours will be the Ducks and the Utes in Salt Lake City. For Oregon, the famous Stanford blueprint of how to beat the Ducks with a ground & pound style of football has been tainted after the Cardinal dropped one in Eugene last weekend. However if that is the only thing Oregon is vulnerable against, Utah will certainly make this a football game. They are not the high flying attack that Oregon is, but they have an absolutely daunting pass rush that certainly has the ability to slow down the tempo of Heisman leader Super Mariota. Leading the nation in sacks as a team, Utah’s starting defensive ends Nate Orchard and Hunter Dimick are #2 and #7 (respectively) in sacks in the nation. Offensively, they have some key injuries that will be tough to overcome but grueling running back Devontae Booker, who currently stands as the 15th leading rushing in Division 1 football will make it easier on them. Don’t be surprised to see a Utah team who doesn’t get much national exposure make it a game against #4 ranked Oregon.
So get your chores done, sit back, get reacquainted with the couch and enjoy a 12+ hour marathon of high intensity college football.
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