The top five teams in the country all took care of business by winning last weekend. However, teams’ ranked numbers six, seven, nine, and ten, all lost. You wanted college football to get crazy. You wanted upsets. You wanted this. You got it. The last two weeks have been nothing short of a whirlwind. Teams are falling left and right. Who can hold on and make it to the playoff? That question is now the most important.
Last week I had No. 1 Clemson, No. 2 Baylor, No. 3 Alabama, and No. 4 Stanford. This week I’ll have to fix that as half of those teams lost. But more on that later.
This past weekend, Baylor fell to No. 12 Oklahoma, Stanford fell to Oregon, LSU disappeared against Arkansas, and Arizona took out Utah. So the top 10 will look a lot different in the College Football Playoff Rankings that will release tonight.
Now there are five teams that can assuredly win out and get into the playoff. Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama, Oklahoma State, and Iowa. All of these teams are in win out, and you’re in situations.
Ohio State and Iowa, should they both win out, will be undefeated when they meet in Indianapolis for the Big 10 Championship Game. One of those teams is guaranteed to miss out. But there is also another play that could have Michigan State make the trip to the playoff. The Spartans have to upset Ohio State this weekend to get the wheels rolling.
Continuing through our run of playoff possibilities, let’s jump to a few more teams.
No. 5 Notre Dame can win out and finish with one loss to Clemson. That’s a very good look on the Fighting Irish. But is it enough to hop one of the undefeated and/or Alabama should it come down to it? The Irish should hope that two of the undefeated teams and/or Alabama lose. They’re the first team to sweep up the remains if anyone falters at least on its head. However, I would give the team two spots below them a better chance to make the playoff.
No. 7 Oklahoma has now positioned itself as the number two team in the Big 12. They knocked off Baylor this past weekend and will face TCU this weekend, followed by Oklahoma State next weekend. The schedule was weighted towards the back-end if the Sooners can find a way to win these next two, they’ll have a legitimate argument for the playoff. They have the benefit over Notre Dame that they can eliminate an undefeated if they win out, OK State. It would then come down to how the CFP Committee views the Oklahoma schedule versus the Notre Dame schedule.
No. 8 Florida is in a weird situation. They’ve almost become an afterthought in the playoff, and the Southeastern Conference races. However, they only have one loss (LSU), and they are set to square off with Alabama in Atlanta. If a one loss ‘Bama makes the playoff, surely a one loss Florida makes it, right?
If you aren’t sensing a theme, keep reading and I’ll fill you in.
No. 10 Baylor just lost its easy ticket to the playoff. It now needs a lot to happen. But it could, if Oklahoma loses to TCU and beats Oklahoma State, that’s two teams out of the way. Two (at least) of the Big 10 teams will be removed by the process of elimination. Now Baylor is sitting at six or seven. Alabama or Florida will lose, up another spot. They’re sitting with the outlook of win out, hope all three Big 10 teams lose, or someone in the top five loses in a shocker. So theoretically, we now have at least a 10 team race for the playoff.
TCU and North Carolina could even paint a scenario where they get in.
TCU is one spot behind Baylor, so they need all the help that Baylor would need. On the other hand, North Carolina will have a showdown with Clemson in the ACC title game.
Houston is undefeated, but they aren’t a power five. It’s going to take a truly unbelievable last three weeks for them to get in. Behind that, it’s a lot of two-loss teams that need to do some serious praying to find a way to the playoff.
If you haven’t figured out the theme, here it is: a lot can still happen and probably will.
The easiest way for the playoff to be sorted out would be for Clemson, OSU or Iowa, Alabama, and Oklahoma State to win out and a Notre Dame loss to Stanford. That would give us three undefeated teams and wipe out most of the top 10 that have a shot.
Will that happen? If the last two weeks are any indication, no, not a chance. We’ll probably end up with a two-loss team in there somehow. Its college football, and this is what we love about it.
My prediction this week:
1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma State
3. Alabama
4. Notre Dame
Okay, here is my reasoning. Clemson, OK State, Alabama, and Notre Dame all run the table. I think OSU, Michigan State, and Iowa end up with at least one loss, Notre Dame is the beneficiary. If Clemson, OK ST., and Alabama all run the table, that means all of the teams that have a shot that are in the top 12 would be eliminated.
It seems confusing, but if it doesn’t get too zany in these next few weeks, it’ll be a pretty clear picture.
The Heisman Race is also entering its final charge. But I think the picture that has been painted is nearly complete.
1. Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama: 22 CAR, 204 Yards, 2 TD
On The Year: 240 CAR, 1,458 Yards, 19 TD
Henry had another huge game for the Tide and now trails Fournette in rushing yards by about three carries of the ball. He will likely surpass Fournette for the nation’s lead in rushing yards. Henry also has the lead in touchdowns. He’s nearly scored as many on the ground as Deshaun Watson has through the air. He’s been a beast in ‘Bama. He also became the first Crimson Tide running back to rush for 200+ in three games in a single season; that’s impressive considering the talent that has come through the Alabama backfield.
2. Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson: 34-47, 360 Yards, 2 TD – 1 INT
14 CAR, 105 Yards, 1 TD
On The Year: 217-309, 2,606 Yards, 23 TD – 8 INT
108 CAR, 598 Yards, 5 TD
Watson had one his best games of the year in a 37-27 win over Syracuse. The Tigers are rolling and look poised to take the number one seed into the playoff. I favor Henry over Watson simply because of stats. Watson, like I’ve mentioned before, will be the Heisman frontrunner next year as he is only a sophomore.
3. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State: 27 CAR, 181 Yards, 2 TD
On The Year: 220 CAR, 1,425 Yards, 16 TD
Throughout the very weird Ohio State season, Elliott has been consistent. If he gets his touches, he will rack the yards up. He’s also near the top in touchdowns. Ohio State has to have one player in New York for the Heisman ceremony; it will be Elliott. He has a few big weeks left to really add to his chances. Three games against top 10 teams in back-to-back-to-back weeks could be the big break he needs.
4. Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU: 19 CAR, 91 Yards, 1 TD
On The Year: 214 CAR, 1,474 Yards, 17 TD
Fournette is out of contention now. Another loss from the Tigers and another lackluster performance, his Heisman campaign is all but irrelevant at this point.
5. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma: 24-34, 270 Yards, 3 TD – 1 INT
On The Year: 217-309, 3,082 Yards, 31 TD – 5 INT
A player making a late charge is Baker Mayfield. He’s got impressive stats, but he also has the Big 12 QB stigma at his back. He’ll have two more opportunities to prove himself. In one of the more important games of the year, he can go toe-to-toe against the Cowboys when they play Oklahoma State to close the year out. A season of wacky Heisman standings could still flip-flop in the coming weeks.
*BOLD Indicates NCAA Leader
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