David Allen shares his thoughts from last week’s combine.
The NBA Pre-draft combine, an NBA function where the NBA’s personnel gather to put fresh eyes on sixty of the most promising NBA hopefuls, is the first domino to fall in what is always an interesting display of amateur psychology and groupthink, aka the NBA draft. Top NBA executives and coaches will meet and greet, some will interview for jobs, most will see if their eye test validates what their scouts have been telling them. What makes the combine special is that all these touted prospects are seen standing shoulder to shoulder, speed vs speed, outside of the NCAA bubble. Is Semaj Christon for example really as quick and strong as he appeared? Or was he simply the beneficiary of playing against lesser competition? (Answer: Probably) Or is Aaron Gordon really that athletic? (Even more than we thought).
The combine is basically a tie-breaker. Most of these front offices already have their guy in mind, they’ve been scouting them for months or even years. But when the gut is sending the GM mixed signals, the combine with its overly analytical nature, helps the GM make a decision between very similar prospects. Let’s take the Charlotte Bobcats er, Hornets and their 24th pick for example. Charlotte has very clear needs in perimeter scoring, ball handling to take pressure off of Kemba Walker, scoring, scoring and scoring. At 24, there should be any number of wing prospects available from Rodney Hood, PJ Hairston, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Cleanthony Early, TJ Warren, DeAndre Daniels, etc. Picking the right one objectively requires a lot of data collection because there honestly isn’t a great deal of difference talent-wise once you leave the very top of the draft.
Even though the combine is just one very overblown piece of the draft evaluation process, it inevitably has winners and losers. The biggest winner was probably UCLA guard Zach LaVine. He has the height and length to play offguard, great looking shooting form, the handles to play point, and a tremendously springy athleticism. If this was last year, he probably would not have had to work out at the combine because he would have been a lock for a top 5 pick.
Another winner was Arizona forward Aaron Gordon. GMs may not know what position he plays in the NBA but they do know that he’s athletic enough to play just about any position, testing well in vertical, speed and agility testing.
The biggest loser is probably UCLA guard Jordan Adams. Everybody and their mothers knew Adams’ game was not reliant on athleticism which is a good thing because he is as athletic as the token white guy at the YMCA. Despite coming to the combine markedly leaner than his UCLA self, he posted dreadful results in the agility drill (5th worst), 3/4 sprint (2nd worst), and dead last in vertical jumping (standing: 24.5″; max: 29.5″). Ouch. At least he still looks like he can play basketball well compared to his positional peers.
The “Oh Em Gee! Look at his measurables!” winner is probably Indiana PF Noah Vonleh. It’s always a fear that power forwards are going to measure out shorter than the coveted 6’9″ to 6’10” but Vonleh quelled those doubts with his shoes on, giant hands and a ridiculous 7’4″ wingspan. While having arms like Dhalsim from Street Fighter and Mickey Mouse gloves for hands does not necessarily make you a good basketball player, it certainly sets you apart from other guys at your position. Baylor center Isaiah Austin also joins Vonleh in the 7’4″ wingspan club as well as being a legitimate seven footer. Hardly anybody embarrassed themselves when the measuring tape came out. The only recipient of the dreaded alligator arm award is Virginia guard Joe Harris with a 6’6″ wingspan while being 6’6.25″ tall in shoes. Not really a big deal. Michigan State guard Gary Harris had some decidedly tall shoes, boosting his height a whole two inches. Maybe the platform shoes helped GMs forget that without them he’s a 6’2″ SG with mediocre handles.
Doug McDermott, Adreian Payne, Nik Stauskas, and Joe Harris put on a shooting clinic, all looking very comfortable behind the NBA 3pt line. There were not really any Michael Kidd-Gilchrists or Tony Wrotens in terms of hideous form or brick laying but maybe the most disappointing shooter was Ohio St point guard Aaron Craft, seriously damaging the stereotype that short white guys are always good jump shooters.
Some other guys that I thought made good accounts of themselves were Nick Johnson (shot well, very athletic), McDermott (not a terrible athlete), Jordan Clarkson (tall guard with PG skills), Dante Exum (no red flags athletically or anthropometrically), Cleanthony Early and Glenn Robinson III (shot well, athletic), and just about any number of guys.
The 2014 NBA Draft Combine basically affirmed in my eyes what has been the general consensus all along. This is one of the deepest if not best drafts to come along in a good while. Virtually every GM is going to walk away on draft day feeling like Santa left them the right presents under the tree because it is easy to talk yourself into lots of these players. Every draft has a late first or second round player or even an undrafted player bloom late into a stud but I suspect that this draft will have multiple guys; just so much solid talent and depth will be available to good drafting franchises, i.e. playoff teams.
So get your popcorn ready because the NBA draft pundits are going to need new vocal chords after they get done arguing over all these prospects.
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