Commanders vs. Cowboys: Odds, Predictions, Picks, and Best Prop Bet

Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys at the line of scrimmage

The late afternoon game on Thanksgiving belongs to the Dallas Cowboys (7-3), who welcome the Washington Commanders (4-7) to Jerryworld. Below, we explore the odds, predictions, picks, and best prop bet for Commanders vs. Cowboys.

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Commanders vs. Cowboys Odds

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott
Oct 8, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) throws a pass against the San Francisco 49ers during the second quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

The Cowboys are a huge 13.5-point favorite on BetOnline. The Cowboys have a career Thanksgiving record of 32-22-1, including 2-3 in their last five games.

The Commanders and Cowboys last met on Thanksgiving in 2020, with Washington picking up a 41-16 victory over Dallas.

View the odds for the game below.

Bet Washington Commanders Dallas Cowboys Play
Moneyline +580 -800 BetOnline logo
Point Spread +13.5 (-110) -13.5 (-110) BetOnline logo
Total Points Over 48.5 (-107) Under 48.5 (-113) BetOnline logo

*Odds courtesy of BetOnline. Odds are correct at the time of publication but are subject to change.

Commanders vs. Cowboys: Predictions And Picks

Washington Commanders +13.5 (-110)

Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr.
Oct 1, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. (8) breaks the tackle attempt of Philadelphia Eagles safety Reed Blankenship (32) during the first quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The Washington Commanders are coming off an embarrassing 31-19 loss to the New York Giants, a game in which they allowed Tommy DeVito to throw for three touchdown passes.

This could be “Riverboat” Ron Rivera’s final stand, as new owner Josh Harris will probably move on from the veteran coach in the offseason if the losing continues.

The Dallas Cowboys continue to be the bullies of the NFL, destroying the bad teams and losing to the great teams. To their credit, Dallas rarely plays down to their competition, besides the Arizona game. Dallas ended Carolina’s hope for a comeback, scoring 16 points in the fourth quarter to win 33-10 in Week 11.

As previously stated with the Lions, favorites dominate on Thanksgiving, with a 46-8 SU and 36-18 ATS record since 2004. Favorites of over 10 pts are 8-0 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2005 (via Evan Abrams of Action Network).

However, fading the Cowboys on Thanksgiving is the trend to follow. The Cowboys are 1-11 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2011. Dak Prescott is 1-5 ATS on Thanksgiving.

In 2020, Washington beat Dallas on Thanksgiving. The previous three meetings were within one possession. I’m fading the Cowboys and backing the Commanders to cover.

Commanders vs. Cowboys: Best Prop Bet

Tony Pollard Over 3.5 Receptions (+136)

Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard
Oct 16, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard (20) carries the ball on a 60-yard reception in the second half against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

To say Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard has been disappointing is an understatement. Pollard was supposed to be the “Ferrari” of the Cowboys’ offense. Instead, the Ferrari has been in the garage, with just 590 yards rushing and three touchdowns.

Pollard has struggled as a runner but found some success as a pass-catcher. Against Carolina, Pollard caught four receptions. Pollard has at least three receptions in the last five games.

An opposing team’s running has registered at least four receptions in five of the last seven games. Look for Pollard to make it six of eight.

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