Get ready for a ton of reminiscing for the next week or two about the 2004 season. Either the media or the fan base will bring up the Bills' march from 3-6 to 9-7 in 2004. It will be like a mantra, especially with fans who to find some sort of solace for this season. "Hey, you never know? You gotta billieve, right?" This will be your battle cry going down the stretch…until they lose a game.
Is there a comparison to be made? I guess.
Both teams started 3-6. Both teams had one side of the ball shitting the bed more than the other. Both teams had easier schedules going down the stretch. Both teams had rising star running backs. Both had household names on the defensive side of the ball. Both had QBs whose time seemed to be coming to an end here. Both had offensive-minded coaches who tended to overthink things.
Heading into this weekend's games, the Bills' remaining opponents are 24-35-1. After 10 games in 2004, the Bills' remaining opponents were 24-36. The Steelers were 9-1 at that point and we played their backups, but take them out and the best team remaining on the Bills' schedule at that time was Seattle (6-4). Ironic, huh? The Bills had the likes of AJ Feeley, Luke McCown and Tim Rattay remaining on their schedule. The Bills of today may not have as bad of a cast of QBs remaining, but they all seem to be inexperienced. None of the remaining QBs are ranked higher than 12th and 4 of the 6 remaining are rated between 26th-30th. Alright, maybe they are kind of bad. Throw in that the Bills still have four home games remaining. After next week, they only go on the road one more time the rest of the season.
I think what you can take from both teams is that they are better than their 4-6 records indicate. Remember, they started the season 0-4 in 2004, but had a few really close losses against Jacksonville, the Jets, and the Raiders at the start of the season. The Bills this year have had close losses against the Pats and Titans. I still think the Bills are a mediocre football team, but you could make the case to me that they haven't played up to their potential yet. They could very easily be 5-4. The reason the Bills were 3-6 in 2004 had a lot to do with the offense. The Bills only averaged 16 points a game during their first 9 games. However, they went through a scoring boom down the stretch, averaging 36 points a game in their final 6 contests.
Maybe the Bills' offense from 2004 is equivalent to the Bills' defense this year. Just a sleeping giant ready to awaken and pounce on teams. Both units struggled mightily at the start of their seasons, however, you kind of got the feeling that both units weren't as bad as their stats said they were. By comparison to the start of the year, the Bills defense has played better over the last three weeks. Come on, the Bills' defense can't be this bad, right? RIGHT!? Alright, maybe they are against elite offenses but not against the bottom third offenses. But then there's the Titans game and the Jets game.
Alright, I'm just gonna move on.
The point is, the 2004 team turned it around because the offense finally woke up. This year's defense is much more talented than the Bills' offense from 2004.
Keep a few things in mind before you read on: I'm looking at the players' production for that season. So remember how good McGahee and Evans were and how Moulds and Bledsoe were pretty much done. Also, it will be difficult to properly assess this season's team because the season is still going on. Without further ado, here's the tale of the tape…
Quarterback: Bledsoe vs. Fitz
This is a tough comparison. Both guys' tenures are kind of similar. They both had a hot streak that endeared themselves to the Buffalo crowd. Then they both became anchors, leaving us all drowning in the sea of football futility. However, I think at this stage in the game, Fitz is better than Bledsoe was. Sure, Drew had a better body of work from previous years, but he was pretty much a shell of his former self in 2004. Bledsoe didn't have a 300-yard game for his final 30 games as a Bills starter. Fitz has his faults, but he's better than Bledsoe.
Advantage: Fitz
Offensive line: Williams-Villarrial-Teague-Tucker-Jennings vs. Glenn-Levitre-Wood-Urbik-Hairston
Yeah, no fricken way I'm giving a compliment to a line with Mike Williams on it. In fairness, the 2004 squad was tolerable in terms of what we've seen over the years, but by NFL standards, they were pedestrian. The Bills were 13th in rushing, but they only averaged 3.9 yards a carry (tied for 24th). They did do a better job in keeping Bledsoe upright (sacked 49 times in 2003 and only 37 in 2004), but they hardly passed the ball to begin with (17th in attempts). As for today's line, yes, they have been struggling a little to protect Fitzpatrick recently (11 sacks in last 3 games), but they have overachieved this year. Wood and Levitre are better than any of the guys on the 2004 line. 5.2 yards a carry to 3.9 yards. 7th in rushing to 13th. Bledsoe was sacked once every 12 attempts while Fitz is being sacked every 18 attempts. Case closed.
Advantage: Glenn-Levitre-Wood-Urbik-Hairston.
Running back: McGahee vs. Spiller/Jackson
During the 2004 season, Travis Henry was getting the same treatment as Fred Jackson. "Forget his previous 1200 yard seasons, give the ball to the younger guy!" That's pretty much what happened to Henry as he lost his job to McGahee, which happened to turn the Bills' season around. Say what you will about McGahee, but he was awesome that year. He started only 11 games and rushed for over 1100 yards and 13 touchdowns. He had elusive speed, knew how to break tackles, and had a killer stiff arm. When he started, the Bills went 9-3. He had seven 100-yard games in just 11 starts. As for Spiller/Jackson, the running game has been great when Chan actually decides to stick with it. And that's where the problem exists in this comparison. McGahee was better that season because the team was built around the running game, while this team isn't. Just look at how many carries McGahee had in games that year: 26, 30, 37, 20, 28, 23 27. That's feeding the monster. It is close and if Gailey used the backs more, it could switch, but I'm going with Willis. I think he meant more to the offense because their coach used him more. Advantage: McGahee
Wide receivers: Moulds/Evans/Reed/Campbell vs. Stevie/Jones/TJ Graham/Chandler
Hmmm. This is another tough one. If we were talking about Eric Moulds of 2002 or 2000, it's a slam dunk win for the 2004 squad. However, Moulds was in the twilight of his career at this point. Eric Moulds had 88 catches, but only had 1,043 yards. He went from being a gamebreaker to a possession receiver. Funny, but those numbers are kind of similar to what Stevie Johnson puts up. A lot of catches but not a lot of yards. Both passing games were designed to get the ball off quickly, so you weren't going to get many big yardage plays. However, Moulds had lost a step or two by 2004 so I'm giving it to Johnson. Donald Jones vs. Lee Evans? No comparison. Lee had a great rookie year, averaging 17 yards a catch and scoring 9 touchdowns.The Bills could use a deep threat like that today. Donald Jones is… Donald Jones. Josh Reed vs. TJ Graham? Eh. Who cares? Scott Chander is a better pass catcher while Mark Campbell was a much better blocker. Hmmm…This is tough, but I can't ignore the drop off between Evans and Jones.
Advantage: Moulds/Evans/Reed/Campbell
Defensive line: Schobel/Williams/Adams/Kelsay vs. Williams/Dareus/Williams/Kelsay
Why the fuck is Kelsay still on this team? Anyways.. On paper and before this season started, I would have given the advantage to today's squad. However, we know the DL has been a disappointment this year. As for the 2004 squad, I think the DL was much better at stopping the run because of the girth of Pat Williams and Sam Adams up the middle, but as far as pass rushing goes, I like Mario Williams off the edge more than Aaron Schobel. Plus, Dareus and Kyle Williams are better at getting after the QB than Adams and Pat. The 2004 DL had 20 sacks while today's DL already has 15. Of course, the difference was the 2004 squad blitzed a hell of a lot more and got pressure from LBs and safeties. I think Dave Wannstedt just discovered that he can blitz the LB last week. Its funny, but the 2003/2004 defenses will always be remembered for beating the piss out of bad offenses, but then shitting the bed against elite offensive teams (see: New England games and KC, 38-5 loss in 2003). When you look at the Bills today, that's kind of the same issue. Against the Cards, Dolphins, Browns and Chiefs? Awesome sauce. Against the 49ers/Pats? Shit on a roll. I think you just go individually here: Kyle Williams is better than Sam Adams. Mario Williams is better than Aaron Schobel. Pat Williams was better than Marcell Dareus. And Chris Kelsay…ah, who cares. Anyway, that's 2-1.
Advantage: Williams/Dareus/Williams/Kelsay
Linebackers: Spikes/Fletcher/Posey vs. Barnett/Sheppard/Bradham
HAHAHAHA! Hahaha! Do I really need to get into this one? James Posey and Angelo Crowell are better than any of the LBs we have today. The Bills' LBs in 2004 were the backbone of the team. Spikes was a fricken monster and is arguably the best defensive player we have had over the last 12 years. Fletcher wasn't flashy, but he still got a boatload of tackles and could play on 3rd down. Posey was crappy and probably would have been better served in a 3-4 defense. We all know the shortcomings of our present LBs. They are useless. I can't think of a play an LB has made this year. Do they have any picks? Sacks? Fumble recoveries? Forced fumbles? The answer is none, 3, none, and two. Slam the gavel, case closed, and give them the chair.
Advantage: Spikes/Fletcher/Posey
Secondary: Clements/McGee/Milloy/Vincent vs. Gilmore/McKelvin/Williams/Byrd/Wilson
Without question, Byrd is the best player of the group here. However, Clements and McGee are better than our corners at this point in the game, and I think Troy Vincent is better than George Wilson. The 2004 Bills were 3rd against the pass, holding QBs to a 65.3 QB rating. They were also 2nd in interceptions with 24. The corners also had to play way more single coverage because of Jerry Gray's blitzkrieg type of defense. This year's version? Eh. Besides Byrd and Scott, who have 7 picks between them, the rest of the team has just one interception (McKelvin). They are currently 25th against the pass. Just too young and not enough pressure from the front four.
Advantage: Clements/McGee/Milloy/Vincent
Final word: If I were a betting man, I'd say the Bills have about a 25% chance of making a run for the playoffs. However, I'm pretty sure a bunch of us said that in 2004. We already know which teams the Bills are chasing. In 2004, the Bills lost out to the Jets and Broncos for the wild card. Both teams finished 10-6. However, the Jets and the Broncos were 7-3 and went .500 the rest of the way. The Ravens, who finished ahead of the Bills with a 9-7 record, also had a 7-3 record and faltered down the stretch. Jacksonville, another team the Bills were chasing, was 6-4 and went .500 the rest of the way. In other words, just because a team is a few games above .500 after 10 games, doesn't mean they can't falter. As for this year, the Colts team is pretty much all Luck/Wayne and an invisible defense. How long can they run that? Big Ben is reportedly out 3 weeks and the Steelers are getting older.
As it stands, the Bills have the easiest schedule remaining of the teams they are tied with or chasing.
As far as comparing both teams, I think they are about even. Besides the linebackers, you can make cases that the individual units were close in many regards. I'll take the 2004 defense over this one, but I think the offense today is better than the 2004 version. If the Bills' defense wakes up against lesser teams, they can be up to the standard of the 2004 squad.
At the end of the day, 4-6 doesn't mean the end of the world if you have a good football team. The SD chargers come to mind as being a team that has gotten into the playoffs when they were hovering around .500 at this point. They were 4-6 in 2008 and won the division. They were 5-5 in 2007 and finished 11-5. However, they were a talented team during those years. In the end, it all comes back to what you do with your own destiny. The record doesn't always matter when you start making a run. It boils down to the type of players you have in the locker room.
The Bills have talent, but the question is, can they put it together for the final 6 games?
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