Ken Griffey Jr. was hardly the first player to give a sarcastic or half-hearted interview, and he wasn’t even the man that made half-hearted interviews cool (see Marshawn Lynch). However, in a March 2014 interview with ESPN, as part of a promotion for Upper Deck, Griffey was asked via Twitter which outfielder most resembled his playing style. The answer? Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen.
Your eyes do not deceive you.
That is the same Griffey that took the baseball world by storm in the early 1990s, just happy at the time to be playing alongside his father in Seattle. It’s the same Griffey known for big hits, bigger plays, and the biggest smiles, to go along with his most notable accomplishment, a recent induction into the National Baseball Hall of Fame with a record breaking 99.3% of the BBWAA votes.
And he said Andrew McCutchen compared most to his playing style?
Such esteemed comparisons are nothing new for McCutchen. In fact, he took to Twitter to say what his childhood idol acknowledging his ability means to him, following the announcement of Griffey’s election to the Hall of Fame.
Most ppl find this hilarious but to have my childhood idol shout me out…that's everything! Congrats Jr. #HOF2016 pic.twitter.com/JzfcjLKjB4
— Andrew McCutchen (@TheCUTCH22) January 7, 2016
His stats have been compared to the likes of Barry Bonds and Roberto Clemente, and some analysts even offered passing comparisons of McCutchen to Griffey at the time of that interview. So, how does McCutchen’s résumé truly match up with the Hall of Famer’s?
It would probably be unfair to measure McCutchen’s success against Griffey’s enduring 22-year career, so we’ll just break down the first seven seasons for each player.
[table id=26 /] [table id=27 /]At first glance, Griffey’s 1994 and 1995 stats may seem a little odd. However, if you didn’t know or recall, the 1994 season was shortened by a strike after the Mariners had played only 112 games, of which Griffey played 111. The strike carried into the 1995 season, and despite having his worst season in his first stint with the Mariners, scoring the series-winning run in game five of the American League Division Series probably made it all worth it.
Due to the strike and McCutchen’s well-noted durability, the Pirates center fielder played in over a hundred more games than Griffey did in his first seven seasons. He also had almost a full season’s worth of plate appearances and at-bats more than Griffey did.
If polled, very few baseball fans, if any, would guess McCutchen would have more home runs than Griffey after the first seven years of each of their respective careers, but despite being largely considered a line drive contact hitter, McCutchen was not terribly far behind Griffey in home runs, 151 to 189 respectively. Griffey had a similar edge in runs batted in. McCutchen banged out more doubles, and speaking of double, he doubled up Griffey in triples over the same span.
The disparity between McCutchen and Griffey would certainly be larger if the 1994 season had been played in its entirety and if Griffey had played more in 1995. The gap would have also been decreased had McCutchen had even half decent protection like Griffey did when he put up his great numbers.
With protection, McCutchen would have probably seen his walk and strikeout numbers decrease, both considerably higher than Griffey’s. McCutchen has not been, and never will be, the power hitter that Ken Griffey, Jr. was throughout his career, a career that has landed him sixth on the all-time home runs list. McCutchen will likely put up his own solid home run numbers, but power was never the most notable attribute of the former 11th overall pick and five-tool player.
When determining what players are the most likely to be successful, scouts look at the tools, the intangibles, off-the-field behavior, and clubhouse attitude, the things that separate good players from the great ones, but unless off-the-field behavior involves the use of performance-enhancing drugs, those things that make all the difference at the start of a career have little impact on the legacy for Hall of Fame voters.
Conversely, WAR, annually biased up for the most recognizable players in the league, makes a dramatic difference between whether a player is immortalized on a plaque or just gets to tour Cooperstown to see everyone else’s. Players like Todd Helton (57.9) and Larry Walker (64.3) are unlikely to ever be elected due to WAR numbers that don’t stand out from the crowd. While Helton has a few years before he is even eligible to be elected in 2019, Larry Walker has yet to come even relatively close to election after six years of eligibility. Of course, there is always the possibility of election through the Expansion Era committee. While a low WAR may not necessarily exclude a player, it makes it exceedingly difficult to get in.
While players with clear Hall of Fame careers are forced to await their fate, what are the chances of Andrew McCutchen making the Hall of Fame, assuming he can maintain a high level of play for the greater part of another decade, and how long would it take him to get elected?
Through the first seven years of each of their respective careers, Griffey had 40.2 WAR, while McCutchen had a 38.1. Griffey went on to post a combined 39.2 WAR over parts of the remaining fifteen seasons in his career.
[table id=28 /]McCutchen got a later start than Griffey did, entering the show at age 22 as opposed to Griffey at 19. He’s already a couple years into his prime and would need to continue playing at a high, if not elite level for years to come, while remaining healthier than Griffey did in his. McCutchen will likely have to post an additional 30 WAR, if not more, while maintaining quality-to-exceptional production in all other stat categories over the remainder of his career to get serious consideration for the Hall of Fame.
Griffey played at an elite level until he turned 31, and then the wheels fell off. Injuries and age led to the decline of arguably the greatest outfielder in the expansion era. Just as time claims every player, McCutchen will not be immune. It was largely speculated the knee issues he has battled the last couple of years have already spelled the beginning of the decline that will reduce his numbers and force him from center field by the end of his prime. Perhaps those issues are an apparition, but one thing is for sure, Cutch is aware of the issue. In an interview with Rob Biertempfel of the Trib, McCutchen said, “Keeping the legs in shape, that’s the big thing for me now. You put the weight on a little easier now than before.”
Andrew McCutchen may never fully measure up to such lofty comparisons as Ken Griffey, Jr., Roberto Clemente, or Barry Bonds. He may never have a special place reserved for his likeness in Cooperstown. Regardless, one thing will always remain true. Andrew McCutchen has a special place in the hearts and minds of every Pittsburgh Pirates fan, every child that broke into a slide playing catch attempting to imitate the star outfielder, every fan that has forgotten what it was like to be the laughing stocks of professional sports. Every time he does his best to impact the community or make a difference in the life of a child suffering from a debilitating illness, the 2015 Roberto Clemente Award winner will be remembered for honoring the legacy of the award’s namesake.
It has been largely discussed that the Pirates are unlikely to spend the money necessary to keep McCutchen in a Pirates uniform for life, but for as long as he wears a Pittsburgh uniform, he will be known as the person most responsible for revitalizing baseball in this city, which was never more evident than on July 11, 2015.
Andrew McCutchen may never be a Hall of Famer. He may never be Ken Griffey Jr., but he doesn’t have to be. He’s Andrew McCutchen, and for this team, and for this city, that’s far better.
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