Comparing JD’s Blues and the Current Incarnation of the Blue Jackets

Back in October, I took a look at what the addition of  John Davidson would mean for the Blue Jackets on the ice. As a follow up to that, I started looking at the evolution of his rosters in St. Louis. We have seen the Blues rise to being on the edge of the league’s elite over the last couple of years. Of course we all want the Blue Jackets to get there. The question is how long will it take. To answer this, I broke down the initial Blues roster compared to Davidson’s initial Blue Jackets roster. Then I did the same for Davidson’s final Blues roster to see just how far we are away from seeing that caliber of team in Columbus.

Below is a table comparing the 2006 Blues (on the left) to the 2013 Blue Jackets (the right). I’ve included the stats for the Blues players for the 2006 season, as well as the CBJ stats so far this year. Further, also listed is how Davidson put that first team together (he took over the Blues with enough time to make off-season moves). I’ve used greater than and equal signs to give my evaluation of how each roster compares to the other (sorted by points per game).

As you can see, the current Blue Jackets look to be far and away better suited for a quick turnaround than the initial Blues. The Blue Jackets are a much younger squad, with a number of higher upside players already in the lineup. In addition, there is a similar group of prospects on the way. The Blues had Erik Johnson, Patrik Berglund, TJ Oshie and not much else on the way (although Backes had just broken in). I think the Blue Jackets group of prospects compares well, as Ryan Murray will hopefully have a better career than Johnson and Boone Jenner looks to be a TJ Oshie type. There is no Berglund for the Jackets, but they have better goaltending prospects, a deeper stable of defensive prospects, and the hope that someone from the TJ Tynan, Josh Anderson and Daniel Zaar group becomes an NHL contributor. Another odd similarity: following Davidson’s first season with the Blues, they held three 1st round draft picks (netting Lars Eller, Ian Cole and David Perron). I feel very comfortable that Davidson and Jarmo will come away with a better haul this year, as they should have at least one pick higher than 13th (the Blues earliest in ’07), and the draft is deeper this coming summer than in 07.

Next let’s take a look at the current Blue Jackets roster compared to Davidson’s final St. Louis roster, just to get an idea of how far we have to go. It’s done in similar fashion to the last chart, with a little leeway given in the ordering of the St. Louis defense.

The top ends of this chart shows how far the Blue Jackets have to go, and really just confirms what I think about this squad (along with most rational people). The middle to bottom of the lineup compares well with St. Louis. This will improve even more if front line players can be acquired to push players down the lineup. The goaltending is a funny question mark, as Bob’s season this year trumps Halak of last year, although Halak has historically been better. Elliott was much better last year than Mason, although Mase is probably the better option now. But the Blues clearly come out on top when looking at their top few forwards and top two defensemen. Fortunately, this is where JD shines. He’s always put a high value on front line players and then filled in the backends later on. Adding three front line talents in this draft, plus Ryan Murray, should push down a few of the CBJ players at the top of that list. If Murray and the picks can develop into something resembling Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk, Perron, Oshie, Backes, etc., the Blue Jackets will be primed to make a serious run at the top of the league. Until then we’ll just have to continue to enjoy close, hard fought games.