Comparing Kluber to The Tribe Greats

In his last start, Corey Kluber surpassed two Hall of Famers in career strike outs in Indians history, Bob Lemon and Early Wynn (both at 1,277) for third most in franchise history.While this alone isn’t enough to name Kluber the third best pitcher in Cleveland history, it’s certainly opens the door to the discussion about where he fits now and where he could ultimately finish.

To start, here’s a list of some of the Indians greatest pitchers basic stats. Players in black are in the Hall of Fame and numbers in yellow are Cleveland records.

One interesting note about the group of pitchers above is that only Harder, Lemon, Feller, Joss and Kluber have played their entire careers in Cleveland with Wynn, Perry, Blyleven and Eckersley making significant contribution to their Hall of Fame accolades away from the Indians.

As for Kluber, he already easily outpaces many of these names during their time in Cleveland, while he lags behind others largely due to a lack of innings pitched. To simplify things, let’s just look at how Kluber compares to the best of the best during a similar period of their careers. Specifically, Feller, McDowell, Joss & Coveleski.

Considering age, Coveleski was the closest match as, besides 21 innings in 1912 with Philadelphia, he started his career at 26 years old (Kluber was 27 the first time he threw more than 100 innings in a year). However, he pitched in the deadball era, so the stats aren’t particularly comparable. This is compounded by something that effects all the other elite pitchers, total innings thrown per season. Because WAR is cumulative, it gives a significant advantage to those who throw more innings (as it should) and makes it hard to compare pitchers from different ages despite the numbers being adjusted for the season. For example, Kluber’s first great season (2014, 28 years old) was worth 8.3 WAR despite throwing just 235.2 innings while Coveleski’s first great season was also worth 8.3 while he threw 298.1 innings in 1917 (27 years old). Essentially this means that Kluber was the superior pitcher per inning, but Coveleski was used so much more that they were of equal value for the entire season.

Rather than compare age or season, we can try to compare where each pitcher was at a similar number of innings to Kluber.

This should really help put Kluber’s age to start his career into perspective. Joss, Feller and McDowell each threw over 1,000 innings before they hit the age Kluber was when he started his career. In the competition to be the best in a storied history of great starting pitchers, those are innings Kluber can’t get back. However, there is potential for positive from starting so late.

Take Feller, for example. He was 17 when he made his debut and was worth an incredible 37.3 WAR before he went to war himself. After missing almost four full seasons due to WWII, Feller had his best season ever in 1946, possibly benefiting from the wear and tear he would have accrued had he pitched those seasons. Even so, his fall was quick. Following 1947, he pitched another 1,636.1 innings, but was only worth 11.1 WAR and, while he made two All-Star teams, these were reputation based rather than being earned on merit. While he didn’t miss significant time due to injury until the mid-1950’s, he was nowhere near as effective after turning 29.

As for Kluber, he didn’t hit his peak until he hit 31. That alone makes him difficult to predict his future based on this group. Similar to Feller, McDowell peaked early (he debuted at 18), although the reasons for his downfall are different. He was worth 38.6 WAR through his age 27 season (1,895 IP) and even survived the lowering of the mound (which Luis Tiant did not), but just 4.6 in 597.1 innings from 1971 through 1975. We can’t even compare Joss as he died just two days after his 31st birthday.

Again, because of age, Coveleski seems the fairest comparison. He did pitch in the minors, in fact throwing 1,993 innings, similar to the 1,951.2 innings Kluber through in the minors. Even so, he was able to remain an effective pitcher through age 36, winning the ERA title with Cleveland in 1923 and Washington in 1925 when he was 35.

The declines of these pitchers, including Coveleski, however, were very sudden once they happened. The man most responsible for the Indians first World Series title was still near 4.0 WAR at 36, but retired after pitching just 72 innings across the next two seasons. McDowell pitched longer after his decline, but went from Hall of Fame quality in 1970 (27 years old) to All-Star quality in 1971 to below replacement level in 1972. Joss obviously died before he hit a decline while Feller was the only one to sustain mediocrity for awhile before the fall.

What’s interesting about Kluber is that he may still be improving. He’s always had incredible movement on his sliderish thing and enough speed on his fastball to keep hitters honest, but this year he has pitched more to contact, lowering both his K/9 and his BB/9 (currently a career best 1.1) while still dropping his H/9 to 6.6, a full hit below his career average. This appears to be more of a strategic decision and it is one that could favor him if his abilities ever wane. The only detriment is that it has lead to more home runs, but even so he has just a 2.17 ERA, the best in his career although just for a third of a season.

Kluber has three more years under contract in Cleveland (the last two on team options that will almost certainly be picked up) and potentially between 6 and 10 left in the majors (almost no pitcher stays in the game after 42, no matter how old they were when they debuted). While there’s no way to predict any of this, if he were to pitch another six seasons with an average of 200 innings, that would give him about 2,500 innings. With his current rate, we could probably expect about that many strike outs as well. Going back to the original list, this should go to show what a dominant force Feller was for such a long time. His team strike out record is feasible for Kluber, but Corey would have to sign another contract with the Indians for at least three more years and have five or six more Cy Young caliber seasons. Feller’s innings record is untouchable, however, as are his records for wins (266), starts (484) and shut outs (279).

In any event, this shouldn’t diminish what Kluber has done. There’s no shame in being the second best pitcher in Indians history, and that is definitely in his sights. In addition, the Indians are at a certain advantage by holding Kluber through his age 35 season. Because of that advanced age, teams will be unlikely to offer him an extended contract and, should he still be a reliable pitcher, the Indians could potentially retain him for the rest of his career. This is much more likely than with Carlos Carrasco, who will be 34 when he hits free agency or Trevor Bauer, who will be 30. If they can retain him, he could not only be the best pitcher since Feller, but also the first long term career Indian since Feller. While the Indians had a handful of career Indians in the 1950’s in Feller, Lemon, Al Rosen and Luke Easter (plus Harder in the 1940’s), they haven’t had a single player with a career longer than seven years play only for the Indians since then. The only player with at least seven years was left handed reliever, Rafael Perez. It would be an incredible achievement if Corey Kluber could become that man.