Computerized NFL Power Ranks

As Ryan mentioned in “Changes,” I, Steve, will now be helping out the Times. To give a little history behind all of this, way back in January 2005 we had an idea to start up a sports site, which we called Is It Sports? For a little over a year, it gave Ryan a chance to showcase his writing abilities, while I acted as a counterpoint and showcased my mediocre html skills. Eventually, I wound up getting some writers block and didn’t have the time to make web pages and new links for all of Ryan’s posts, and that’s when he decided to create the Victoria Times blog. I eventually migrated over here as well, creating a new Is It Sports? but I rarely made new posts. So now we’re back writing together again, but only this time Ryan doesn’t need to wait a month to get his post up while I’m searching for pictures of ostriches.

So I’m starting off with what I think I do best: statistical analysis. I came up with a computerized NFL power ranking formula that factors in record, recent success, momentum of opponents, strength of division vs. non division opponents, and a few other factors to see who the numbers say is #1. My favorite part about this I haven’t tested this at all on past results so I have no idea how this will turn out. I’m thinking as the season goes on, this will either turn out to be stunningly accurate or a huge joke, nothing in between. I’ll start off by posting all 32 teams in order. This early on, with winning %’s all being either .000, .500, or 1.000, the ranks will be more or less tied to record, but that will change as the season continues. By the looks of who #1 and who #32 are, after 2 weeks, your 2007 NFL MVP is…..Matt Schaub! I was as stunned as you probably are to see the Texans topping my original list, but its not too far fetched this early on. The AFC South is 4-0 outside of the division and the Texans have put up some pretty solid offensive and defensive statistics so far. Most people would probably agree that the Patriots have been the most dominant team so far, but this early in the season, they are being hurt by the fact that the other 3 teams in their division are 0-2. To equate this to college football, think if the BCS made the Sun Belt champions #1. This can change though, and as more stats pile up throughout the season the teams will hopefully find their right place. So without further ado….here are the Week 2 ranks and scores (out of 100):

1. Texans – 90.83
2. Colts – 90.50
3. Packers – 85.48
4. Steelers – 80.58
5. Patriots – 76.17
6. 49ers – 72.52
7. Lions – 72.28
8. Redskins – 65.38
9. Broncos – 64.40
10. Cowboys – 63.19
11. Titans – 59.38
12. Bears – 57.20
13. Panthers – 55.93
14. Ravens – 54.98
15. Cardinals – 51.88
16. Vikings – 51.73
17. Jaguars – 51.27
18. Browns – 51.21
19. Bengals – 50.95
20. Seahawks – 49.48
21. Buccaneers – 46.27
22. Chargers – 45.50
23. Rams – 32.68
24. Eagles – 31.17
25. Giants – 28.65
26. Chiefs – 21.69
27. Saints – 21.63
28. Jets – 20.75
29. Raiders – 20.24
30. Bills – 15.75
31. Dolphins – 12.06
32. Falcons – 12.04

So this weekend we have 2 big games based on these ranks: #1 Houston vs. #2 Indianapolis and #4 Pittsburgh vs. #6 San Francisco. I guess only time will tell to see how these ranks work out, but when the Texans play the Packers in the Super Bowl, don’t say I didn’t tell you so.