Conference Realignment: Is Cincinnati Next?

My how college football has changed in these last five years. Teams like Nebraska, Colorado, and Utah began the transformation as the first teams to try conference realignment. Since that time, Syracuse, TCU, Louisville, and many others have followed suit. For a time, the Big 12 had 10 teams and the Big Ten had 12 teams. However, it was the former Big East conference took the biggest hit from this realignment as they saw most of their teams leave. The only teams left from the old Big East are Cincinnati, UConn, and South Florida. The question now becomes, are those teams eventually on the way out?

There’s no doubt in my mind that the Cincinnati Bearcats will be the next team out of the newly formed American Athletic Conference, if there’s one team that leaves. There’s been more recent talk of them moving to the Big 12 after the College Football Playoff fiasco with TCU this past season. Cincinnati desired the spot that was given to Louisville in the ACC after Maryland departed for the Big Ten. The Bearcats would be a good fit no matter where they go, whether it’s ACC or Big 12.

The reasons for the Big 12 being a good conference for Cincinnati to join is largely focused on the necessity of the Big 12 needing to add at least two more teams in order to have a conference championship game. Right now the “odd man out” in the Big 12 is West Virginia based on geography. The Plains States house the rest of the Big 12 Conference (Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Iowa), so there isn’t a true rival for West Virginia right now. Enter Cincinnati. That creates a conference rival for the Mountaineers to match up against, not to mention the basketball rivalry of Bob Huggins against his old team. Also, the Bearcats’ current head coach, Tommy Tuberville, is a former Texas Tech head coach, so the Big 12 is a familiar place to him.

On top of that, and this goes with whatever conference that the Bearcats could be placed in, the market that Cincinnati has is a fairly large one. It grabs Cincinnati and Dayton, along with southeast Indiana and Northern Kentucky as a large media area to broadcast Big 12 or ACC games. As most of these moves are made for money purposes, you can’t ignore the media market that Cincinnati has, as well as the talent level of the teams Cincinnati has in its main money sports, basketball and football. Since the Brian Kelly era began, the Bearcats have boasted a 75-28 record, nearly a .750 winning percentage. That proves that Cincinnati can bring a winning program and attitude into a tough conference.

In terms of the ACC, Cincinnati will actually fit in perfectly with all the teams the ACC has added recently as it’ll spark old rivalries with Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse as former members of the defunct Big East. Geographically speaking, no Cincinnati is not along the coast of the Atlantic Ocean, nor is the state of Ohio, but with Louisville being added, clearly that’s not a major issue with the ACC committee in terms of teams to add. Likely, what would hold this up is the fact that the ACC already has 14 teams in their conference and isn’t likely to add another, as they would probably need to add a second team if they added Cincinnati, to go to 16 teams.

Likely the only chance that Cincinnati has if it is looking to switch conferences is by going to the Big 12. The Big 12 Committee has been very unclear about whether or not they are interested in expanding to go to a 12-team conference in order to add a conference championship game. Along with that, they could look more at teams more fitting regionally with teams like Houston, Tulsa, or SMU. I believe Cincinnati has the strongest case in terms of quality of their athletics programs, but the Houston Cougars, being in a top five market in the country, beat out the Bearcats for media coverage.

At this point, it looks like the Bearcats will remain where they are, but so much can change, as we’ve seen with the quick breakup of the Big East. I’m sure the Bearcats will keep their ears open if the right opportunity comes along, but for now they’re a fully fledged member of the AAC.