Conference tournament scenarios

I’ve mostly got the home wifi working now, but I’m typing really slowly right now because I banged up my wrist something fierce falling on the driveway earlier this afternoon. So while there are a few webcasts, there are really no marquee matchups, so I’m going to (gingerly) write up another topic that’s been on my mind — conference playoff scenarios.

Conference Carolinas

1. Erskine 10-2
2. Mount Olive 10-4
3. Pfeiffer 9-4
4. Limestone 7-6
5. Barton 7-6
6. Lees-McRae 4-9
7. King 4-10
8. Belmont Abbey 1-13

Carolinas is mostly done and dusted. With seven conference opponents, that’s 14 total conference matches, and Mount Olive and Belmont Abbey have already played that number. Erskine and Pfeiffer had a match called off back in February, but as it has no impact on the standings and playoff positioning, it doesn’t look like it’s going to be made up.

The top six make the conference tournament, and the top five are all set. Erskine are the slightly surprising conference champions (I picked them 3rd preseason), and will host the conference tournament. The only meaningful match left, tomorrow afternoon, is between Erskine and Lees-McRae. If Lees-McRae can turn the upset, they’ll sneak into sixth place and nip the last bid in the conference tournament. If they don’t, it goes to the tiebreakers, which I don’t specifically know for Conference Carolinas, but generally it’s overall head-to-head, then sets head-to-head, and points head-to-head. If they remain tied, and if those are the tiebreakers, it would favour Lees-McRae, as they beat King 3-0 but managed to take a set in the match the Tornado won.

I don’t like that I haven’t afforded much “column inches” to Carolinas this season, but it’s been a matter of (in)convenience. Not just my fallback about my home wifi, but also that Carolinas matches tended to start this season before I even got home for the day. Hopefully I’ll be able to check out some of the tournament itself.

Eastern Intercollegiate Volleyball Association

1. Penn State 9-1
2. Princeton 9-3
3. Harvard 8-3
4. George Mason 6-5
5. St Francis 5-5
6. Sacred Heart 3-9
7. NJIT 2-8
8. Rutgers-Newark 1-9

In an overall wildly unpredictable men’s volleyball season, the EIVA has more or less gone to expectations. Penn State continue to rule the roost, without being bulletproof (which I think says more about the Ivies than about the Nittany Lions themselves). George Mason stay first division by the skin of their teeth, but St Francis are nipping at their heels.

There are still a couple more weeks left in EIVA season, and strictly speaking nothing at all has been clinched yet. Not even Penn State simply making the tournament, though all they need is one more win. They’ll win, they’ll qualify, they’ll host the quickie four-team tournament just as they have every year since antiquity. As far as second and third place, Harvard own the tiebreaker over their Ivy League brothers, as they won both matches against Princeton this year. The Tigers have two matches remaining against George Mason, an odd little home-and-home to close out their regular season. Harvard face St Francis, NJIT, and Rutgers in their remaining schedule.

The St Francis match is especially significant, because the Red Flash probably need to go a full match clear of George Mason to claim that 4th spot. And they’ve still got a date with Penn State yet to play, along with Rutgers and NJIT. Mason, in addition to the Princeton two-fer, also have NJIT on the docket (and a non-conference match with Ohio State). The odds would seem to favour the Patriots hanging onto that 4th spot. It’s in their own hands, too — if they win out, they’re in. But if the Red Flash win two of their final four, which appears a likely best-case scenario unless they can turn a minor upset against Princeton or a huge upset against Penn State, the Patriots will need only one win to take the trip to State College for the postseason.

Midwestern Intercollegiate Volleyball Association

1. Loyola 12-0
2. Lewis 8-3
3. Ball State 6-4
4. IPFW 7-5
5. Ohio State 6-7
6. Lindenwood 4-7
7. Grand Canyon 2-8
8. Quincy 0-11

There have been a couple of surprises in the MIVA, but nothing ultimately too jaw-dropping. Loyola are #1 in the nation and have been most of the season, and have home-court for the MIVA tournament locked up. Ball State, who just gave both Loyola and Lewis big scares by taking each to a full five sets (but with the top two teams ultimately prevailing) hold the tiebreaker over IPFW by beating the Volleydons head-to-head twice this season.

Along with Loyola clinching the top seed, Lewis have clinched a berth themselves. None of the others have conclusively clinched, but it would take a serious face-plant for the current top six not to be the six who make the tournament. Ball State will likely secure the 3-seed, as they have Grand Canyon, Lindenwood, and Quincy remaining on their schedule. IPFW have Lindenwood and Quincy as well, but as mentioned, the Cardinals have the tiebreaker, so to move up they’d need them to lose.

Ohio State and Lindenwood are probably locked in their positions, too. The Buckeyes’ remaining conference contest is a toughie, as they have Loyola left to play, but Lindenwood must face Lewis, Ball State, and IPFW. They’d need to win all three for any chance to move up to the 5-seed, and that’s not going to happen. But it’s still congratulations to them for their first NCAA postseason run this year.

Mountain Pacific Sports Federation

1. BYU 18-2
2. Pepperdine 15-6
3. UCSB 14-7
4. Stanford 14-7
5. Long Beach State 13-8
6. UC Irvine 14-8
7. USC 14-9
8. UCLA 12-9
9. Hawaii 11-9
10. CSUN 8-13
11. Cal Baptist 2-18
12. Pacific 1-19
13. UCSD 1-20

Here’s the nexus of unpredictability. Even with the season 90% gone, I feel like it would be foolish to predict anything right now. Except BYU hosting. That’s been clinched. Although wouldn’t it feel fitting for this to be the first year that the #1 seed lose in the quarterfinals and thus aren’t around to host the semis and final? I don’t think it would harm their NCAA tournament prospects. Maybe it would if we were still in the 4-team model (or even that prospective 5-team model we thought we were gonna have for a few months there).

Top 8 make the MPSF tournament, in a direct bracket, so it makes sense to look at it from the bottom up. For weeks now, it’s been clear that it’s been 9 teams fighting for 8 places. The two sets of bubble boys are the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors and the reeling UCLA Bruins. The men from the islands have the tiebreaker, as they swept the double-shot against UCLA just over a month ago. That’s really when the UCLA tailspin started, as since that point, they’ve posted wins over only the lowly UCSD and Cal Baptist squads. Even CSUN, who haven’t been in the playoff picture basically at any point this season, knocked off UCLA earlier this week, winning a 23-21 fifth set. Where it once looked like UCLA were huge national championship favourites and all but assured of an at-large bid should they need one, there’s effectively no chance of either of those things now. They’ve got three matches left — two toughies and a softie, as they have Long Beach State, Cal Baptist, and BYU on the docket. Two months ago that BYU match looked like a classic in the making. Hawaii have double shots with BYU and Pepperdine. So you’ve got to marginally see the Bruins as the favourites to nip that 8-seed, but it still could go either way. Hawaii likely need to win two of their final four to make it.

The tiebreaker between UC Irvine and USC would seem to favour the Anteaters, though if it’s as I described above it’s very close — they each beat the other 3-2 on home court this year. UCI scored more total points. Given how many moving parts the MPSF in particular has had, I don’t see this tiebreaker as too meaningful. One of these teams will be the 6, one will be the 7. It still could be Pepperdine, Long Beach State, UCSB, or Stanford at the 2, 3, 4, or 5, so it’s not like we know yet who’s going to avoid whom by finishing higher.

The big matter as far as teams 2 through 5 is which of them are going to be playing each other in the first round of the MPSF tournament. Now that is something you want to avoid. It’s pointless to speculate. Long Beach have to face UCLA and then CSUN twice. Stanford, who just minutes ago won their ninth straight match, have UCI and UCSD. The Gauchos have CSUN, Cal Baptist, and BYU. Pepperdine have three at home to close out the season, against USC and a double shot with Hawaii. Who emerges from the dust? Your guess is as good as mine. Four-way tiebreakers are a little more complicated than two- or even three-way, so I’m gonna leave off trying to analyse who holds them. Pepperdine obviously have a leg up in terms of securing either the 2 or 3 seed (and facing relatively weaker competition in the MPSF first round), but anything could still happen. Strictly speaking, no one but BYU has even clinched a tournament berth at all (of course they won’t all fall short, but any one of them still could) to this point, so everybody’s still got a lot to play for in the final few weekends of the regular season.