So we’re really going to do this, huh? We’re really going to consider the idea of an Angels Strasburg trade?
You do understand that the Angels have not been linked to Stephen Strasburg in any meaningful way, right? A few people have thrown out the Angels as a potential destination for Strasburg, but it is nothing more than speculation, and that’s a nice word for it. Heck, there isn’t any solid report that the Nationals have talked to ANYONE about trading Strasburg. But, sure, let’s go ahead and pretend that an Angels Strasburg trade is possibly a real thing that could happen.
Obviously the Angels would have interest in Stephen Strasburg. He maybe hasn’t become the Kershaw-level dominant starter that so many thought he would be coming out of college, but he’s still awfully dang good. Last year he logged 215 innings, had a 3.14 ERA, 2.94 FIP while striking 27.9% of batters while walking just 5.0%. That’s an ace’s line but Strasburg gets a bit of grief basically for not being a superhuman as he had the audacity to allow a .241 batting average against, including 23 homers. So, yeah, the Angels (and 29 other teams) could use him, especially at age 26 with two years of team control left.
The problem is actually making an Angels Strasburg trade happen. Yes, that minor little detail in this grand scheme still needs to be worked out. After all, the Nationals didn’t just decide to pay Max Scherzer through the end of the century so that they could just give Strasburg away. They are going to want something for him. Probably a lot of something. A lot of something very, very good.
Just looking at the recent history of MLB teams trading young-ish ace-ish pitchers with over a year of team control left shows you what the asking price for Stras will be. SPOILER ALERT: it’s a lot.
David Price, a Cy Young winner with a year and a half of control left, was functionally dealt for Drew Smyly, Austin Jackson and Willy Adames. So that’s one arbitration eligible league average starter at a premium defensive position, a young pre-arb quality starting pitcher and a very good but very young prospect. That’s a hefty package, no doubt, though perhaps a bit underwhelming for what some would have expected.
Before that, the Cubs traded Jeff Samardzija, a not quite ace with a year and a half of team control left, to Oakland for Addison Russell, Dan Straily and Billy McKinney. So that’s the best, at the time, prospect in the free world, a pre-arb starting pitcher and a 2013 first rounder. Granted, the Cubbies also added in Jason Hammel to drive the price up, but that’s a massive price to pay.
Probably the best comp though is when the Rays traded James Shields, a not quite ace with two full years of control left but who was a few years older than Strasburg is now, for Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard. So that’s the best, at the time, hitting prospect in baseball, a very good starting pitching prospect, a former top pitching prospect who was starting to flame out and… whatever Leonard is. The Rays also tacked on Wade Davis in a salary dump, so that’s something to factor in as well, but once again, the receiving team paid what at the time appeared to be a truly exorbitant price.
What that leaves the Angels looking at is trying to put together a package of at least three players that is headlined either by an elite prospect or multiple established, cheap, above average major leaguers or both. Let me check to see if the Halos have any of that.
(opens closet)
(looks in pantry)
(feels around between couch cushions)
(checks under mattress)
Yep, not so much. When it comes to elite prospects, the best they have is Andrew Heaney. He had been a top 30 prospect, but a bit of the shine is off of him now, though he’s still a top 100 guy. Sean Newcomb could be that elite prospect, but he’s far away from the majors and not even eligible to be traded yet, which is decidedly inconvenient. Neither of those guys is likely to get the job done by themselves, unless the Nats happen to be particularly enamored of Heaney compared to the rest of the league.
As for those cheap, quality major leaguers, the Halos are a bit closer. Kole Calhoun is obviously at the top of the list as he’s coming off a very strong year and is pre-arbitration eligible. Of course, that means the Angels would be giving up Calhoun who is their leadoff hitter and arguably second-best position player. More to the point is that they don’t have anyone who could step in to fill his shoes. With Josh Hamilton‘s tenuous status as the starting left fielder, trading away the other starting corner outfielder doesn’t seem like the smart way to go.
Matt Shoemaker could be the cheap, young mid-rotation arm a la Smyly that could be included in the package, though he is a bit older. That would definitely work, assuming the Nationals actually want pitching. You might have noticed that they already seem to have too much, thus the alleged willingness to trade Strasburg. If Washington is looking for talent at other positions, the Halos are out of luck.
I know some of you love C.J. Cron, but the jury is very much still out on him being a big league regular, but even if he is, he’s destined to be a DH. That’s kind of a problem for the National League-residing Nationals.
What the “win-now” mode Washington really needs is a second baseman, which is great news because the Angels have… oh, right. They already traded Howie Kendrick. Drat. Now the Halos don’t even have a second baseman themselves. This really just isn’t lining up well at all.
With all of that in mind, the best overall package the Angels could put together to try and acquire Strasburg is a package of Heaney, Calhoun and Alex Yarbrough. That’s not a bad package. It probably gets the Nationals to at least think about it, but I can’t imagine that it comes close to trumping the kind of offers that the Padres (Hedges and Wisler), Red Sox (Swihart and Betts) or Dodgers (Seager and Urias), to name a few, could make. It also is one that causes a lot of problems for the Angels as they lose a key piece of the lineup and push themselves perilously close to the luxury tax threshold for 2015, which, in turn, limits their ability replace Calhoun.
We haven’t even talked about the whole complication of Strasburg being a Scott Boras client and how that will impact he Halos keeping Stras beyond two years given the frosty relationship between Boras and Arte Moreno. The Angels will be in a better financial situation by then, but Moreno may not care to play high stakes free agency poker with the Dark Lord of Sports Agents again.
This is all just so… so… stupid. Look, the Nationals probably aren’t even going to trade Strasburg. He’s way too good to move if they really want to win a World Series. It makes a lot more sense for them to trade Jordan Zimmermann or Doug Fister. But even if they do put Strasburg on the block, the Halos would be hard-pressed to cobble together a competitive package. It is the same reason they weren’t players on David Price despite how much people wanted them to be.
I hate to be the one to burst your bubble, but an Angels Strasburg trade just isn’t going to happen.
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