Making a case for Anthony Davis as the MVP, even if the New Orleans Pelicans miss the playoffs
Watch Anthony Davis play, and it’s easy to get caught up making projections. Phrases like “MVP” and “future Hall of Famer” get thrown around, often very prematurely, yet with Davis it’s hard not to hear those words and think it just might be possible. Davis is only in Year Three, but after an All-Star season last year, he’s taken another strong leap forward so far this season. In doing so, he’s making a strong case to be included in the MVP conversation by year’s end.
Let’s look at his numbers so far: Through 13 games, Davis is averaging 25.4 points, 11.2 rebounds, 3.5 blocks and 2.1 steals per game. He has a 56.5 field goal percentage, and is shooting 75.5 percent at the rim and better than 40 percent from mid-range. Looking closer, Davis has been most effective in the third quarter of games. He’s shooting 61.1 percent in the third and has made and taken more shots in that quarter than in any other. Compared with last season, his numbers are up in every statistical category. Around the league, Davis ranks second in points per game, seventh in rebounds per game, first in blocks per game and boasts the highest Player Efficiency Rating (PER) in the league at 34.5.
Individually, he is making a strong case as an MVP candidate, but his chances may ultimately depend on how the New Orleans Pelicans finish this season. Making the playoffs plays a large part when deciding who wins the award. It’s one thing to put up MVP numbers; it’s another to do it on a playoff or NBA title contending team. Currently, the Pelicans are 7-6 but sit in 10th place in Western Conference and (amazingly) last in the Southwest division. They’ve been pegged as a dark horse to make the playoffs, but playing near .500 basketball will not be enough in the Western Conference.
If the NBA follows its past history, Davis won’t win the MVP unless his team makes the playoffs. That seems fair, but let’s consider the alternative. Say the Pelicans miss the playoffs, but like Phoenix last season, come up just short, winning somewhere around 48-49 games. That’s a good season, and in the East would be a potential top-half playoff seed. This hypothetical win total would be 14-15 more wins for New Orleans than it had last season, which would be a huge improvement for any team. While the Pelicans are benefiting from a healthier squad this season (minus Eric Gordon, who might as well be listed as “out indefinitely” the rest of his career), Davis has been far and away their best player. If the Pelicans were to win close to 50 games but miss out on the playoffs, Davis should still receive strong consideration.
Consider this, as well. The LeBron James-led Cleveland Cavaliers are currently sitting at 7-7. Let’s say they finish with fewer wins than the Pelicans but make the playoffs because they are in the East. Is James more deserving of the MVP, because the Cavaliers are in the playoffs and the Pelicans aren’t? To be clear, at this point James is not having an MVP-caliber season. In fact he’s having a subpar season as far as LeBron’s standards go. The point is, if we consider the players in the East who could end up in the MVP conversation, it would be a slight to Davis if one of them won the award over him, while winning fewer games.
There’s obviously a lot to factor in, and revisiting this conversation in February or March will be necessary. If the Pelicans were to rise into a playoff spot, Davis would be right in the conversation, and if current trends hold up, his top competition for the award would end up being Stephen Curry or James Harden. Davis, however, is playing well enough to win the award, so counting him out because his team is in the lottery is a little unfair.
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