With their free agent shopping done, all their trades settled and just one arbitration case left to deal with, the Angels front office has turned their attention to talking contract extensions with some of their players. This isn’t nearly the sexy topic it was last season when they were talking extension with Mike Trout, but we’ll try and find a way to feign interest anyway.
What they are talking openly about is doing a Huston Street extension. After spending years trying to find stability at closer and then trading half of their already beleaguered farm system for him, who could blame the Angels for wanting to lock street up?
And who could blame Street for wanting to talk extension himself? Normally players are keen to hit the open market, but Street is coming off a career year in which he had the most saves (41) and lowest ERA (1.37) in his ten years in the majors. Of course, he posted that line on the strength of an absurd 93.3% strand rate and masked his problems with the longball by playing over half his season in Petco State Park.
More importantly, Huston Street didn’t spend any time on the disabled list, the first season he’s avoided the DL since 2009. The 59.1 innings he threw in 2014 were his most since his age 25 season. Yeah, Street is pretty injury prone. His injury history page on Baseball Prospectus reads like a game of Operation. Right hamstring, right groin, left calf, right biceps, right shoulder, right triceps, ribs, oblique, right quadriceps, right elbow and right chest. These are all the various body parts that he has missed games with in his career. With that kind of a medical record, Street probably can’t wait to sign an extension and get long-term guaranteed money. He just needs to hope he doesn’t sprain his wrist signing the contract.
Of course, if he’s so eager, it should make the Angels question whether or not they should reciprocate Street’s desire for an extension. Street is entering his age 31 season, so he isn’t ancient, but in elite closer years, he’s pretty long in the tooth.
Take, for example, the three top comparisons for Street according to Baseball-Reference: John Wetteland, Robb Nen and Rod Beck. All three were elite closers in their prime, but all three very quickly exited their prime and were either out of the league by the end of their age 33 season (as Wetteland and Nen were) or shells of their former selves (as Beck was).
It turns out that relievers don’t age so well. Guys like Mariano Rivera that can pitch at an elite level until the end of time are exceptions to the rule. If you look at the history of closers, things tend to go downhill quickly once your age starts with a three. Guys just can’t sustain dominant levels of performance. According to Play Index, since 1961, there have been only 25 pitchers who made 40+ appearances, registered 30+ saves and posted a 175 or better ERA+ in their age 31 season. That number drops to 21 for the age 32 season, 18 for age 33, 14 for age 34 and 12 for age 35.
Mind you, the only time that Street has cleared that level of performance was in 2014. With his injury history, there just is no reason to have any faith that Street will continue to stay on the field and stay healthy enough on the field to continue to perform at such a high level. Even the projection systems don’t buy it. Steamer has him down for a decidedly “meh” 3.55 ERA and 3.86 FIP that is coupled with a stark decline in strikeout rate. ZiPS believes his whiff rate will hold up, but that his longball problems will return and inflate his ERA up to 3.06 and FIP to 3.35. That’s good, but not elite, or even very good. Finally, PECOTA is a little more bullish with a 2.78 ERA, but again, we aren’t talking about an elite reliever.
And make no mistake, any Huston Street extension that his agent will pursue will be made with his stellar 2014 season in mind. That’s a truly dominant season and Street’s agent will want a contract extension to match that. The Angels, hopefully, aren’t going to fall for that. Dipoto’s well-versed enough in sabermetrics to know an unsustainable strand rate when he sees it. So if Street’s agent comes to him looking for a contract in the neighborhood of the four years, $46 million that David Robertson just got on the open market, or even the four years, $36 million given to Andrew Miller, Jerry should politely decline, calmly back away from the negotiating table then throw a smoke bomb and disappear from the building.
Agreeing to a Huston Street extension right now goes against all the leverage the Angels currently have in these talks. It is on Street to show that he can repeat his 2014 performance. It is on Street to show that he can avoid the DL again. If the Halos extended him before he proved any of that, they’d be assuming a lot of risk.
If they let him play out his contract, they do assume some risk that he might bolt via free agency. But that actually isn’t all that big of a risk. They still have Joe Smith ready to step into the closer role if need be. They also have Cam Bedrosian on the horizon. They won’t be left without a pretty good closer in 2016.
Perhaps the biggest weapon they have though is the qualifying offer. If Street pitches well and pitches healthy in 2015, the Angels can just drop the QO on him, guaranteeing that they get a sandwich round pick if he signs elsewhere. That seems unlikely though. With Street’s injury history and age, there isn’t going to be a long line of suitors lining up to both give him big money AND forfeit a first round pick even though it is a pretty weak free agent closer class. It is also unlikely that Huston would accept the qualifying offer since he is fragile enough to not want to kick the can down the road on his what could be his last chance to get long-term money.
If Street does struggle or get hurt in 2015, the qualifying offer won’t even be needed. Street’s price will be automatically discounted, putting him more in the range of the two years, $14 million that Fernando Rodney got from the Mariners a year ago. That’s a price and contract length the Angels can be comfortable with. Unless Huston is will to make that kind of deal now, Dipoto should probably have those smoke bombs ready.
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