Continuing With Undue Optimism: How the Indians Could Make the Play-Offs

A few weeks ago, just prior to the end of August, I wrote about the Indians play-off chances as a long shot. They could have simplified things by then pulling off a protracted losing streak, but instead, they have went 13-5 since August 25th. The team deserves a lot of commendation for this, particularly considering the hole they were placed in while trying to justify the extreme contract of Michael Bourn and attempting to keep Francisco Lindor from getting a fourth arbitration eligible season.

Since the last look back, the biggest difference now isn’t the amount of wins the Indians are expected to get or the amount that Rangers are, but the amount of competitors. In that group, the White Sox and Tigers were both considered fringe contenders with the Orioles and Rays ahead of the Tribe. Now, all four are behind Cleveland and only Tampa Bay and Baltimore can even be considered a fringe candidates for that final Wild Card. At six games back behind four teams and competing directly with each other, they are also essentially out of this race.

This really simplifies things and it raises the Indians’ chances for post-season contention, because now only three teams, the Rangers, Angels and Twins have to play poorly since the other four already have. Speaking of the odds, at the beginning of September, FanGraphs.com had the Indians at a 6.8% chance of winning a Wild Card with the Rangers in the lead at 39.4%. Now, that number is lower at 5.4%, but the Rangers’ chances have also diminished (36%) and each of the other teams mentioned as being removed from the conversation all have less than a 1.0% chance.

While those odds are based on thousands of simulations, nothing really matters except what actually happens. Based on winning percentage and opponents, the Rangers should be expected to win 86 games, the exact same amount they were expected to win last time we looked in August. For the Indians, they have made a two win improvement over expectations and depending on if and when last Saturday’s game against Detroit is made up, they are on pace for 80 or 81 wins. Like the Rangers, the Angels have maintained since the end of August and are expected to win 83 games and the Twins have improved by two and are now predicted to win 85.

With so few series left, the picture of what exactly needs to happen to surpass these three teams has never been clearer. There are six games left with Kansas City, seven with Minnesota and six against variously colored sox (three red, three white). The question of whether or not the remaining Tigers game will be played is yet to be seen, but no team hasn’t played at least their full slate of 162 since 2011 when the Nationals and Dodgers left one out. Then, both teams finished more than 7 games out of the Wild Card, so it didn’t effect the standings.

While the Rangers have 10 games left against play-off contenders, they can’t be counted on to finish below their projection. One reason for that is because four of those are against the Angels, so even if the Rangers were to get swept at the end of the year, that would only increase the Angels expectations to 85 or 86 wins, so the mark remains the same. Of course, if either team (or Minnesota, but more on them later) really takes off, what the Indians do is irrelevant so that 86 mark should still be what they need to shoot for.

To win 86 games, the Indians will have to make up and win the game against Detroit and lose no more than five games, needing a run of 15-5 to finish the season. Seeing that seemingly insurmountable number, it is easy to see why FanGraphs has them at about 5%. Given the starting rotation and the new life injected by the likes of Abraham Almonte and Lindor, let’s presume that 15-5 isn’t impossible. How could they do it?

Possibly the only answer is beat the Royals. The top team in the AL, the Royals are expected to win four of their last seven against the Indians. If that happens, the Indians would only be allowed one loss in their other 14 games and that would be impossible. Instead, if the Indians can win both series even without a sweep, they could save two losses for use later on. They have already gotten off to a good start with a win in game one of the first series.

Where they can’t use these losses, however, is against the Twins. At 3.5 behind the Twins, excluding every other game by either team, the Indians can eliminate one of their contenders with good enough play in their two series. Below shows the difference a single win or loss either way would make:

Essentially it reads that if the Indians run the table against Minnesota, they will gain 7 games on the Twins and sit 3.5 games ahead of them. Any loss worse than that is worth a two game difference in the standings and if they finish worse than 5-2 in those seven, just like if they were to lose four to the Royals, their play-off hopes will be just about over.

You never want to say any particular game is a “must win” because if the team loses, then you can’t reevaluate and find another way in. Must win essentially means that if the team loses, any chance at the play-offs is over and you don’t really know which game is that final “must win” until the season is over. If the Rangers win the next ten in a row, the Indians “must win” games were probably some they lost in June when they went 11-15, but there is no way to know that right now. Until then, the best we have to go off is that five loss limit. If the Indians lose four, every game after that is a must win and even then it may not be enough. With all this talk of 86 wins, the Twins or Rangers could very possibly just win 87 or 88 and ruin the whole situation.

As stated many times, any possibilities of a post-season are extremely limited, but the fact that there still is a chance despite Terry Francona‘s anti-logical need to play poor veterans over talented rookies and to bunt way too much is exciting in itself. Speaking of improbabilities, there is one crazy outcome that could wind up being total chaos.

If the Indians finish within a game of the Wild Card leader, they will have to make up the game with Detroit and might have to do it the day after their final game with Boston (which would be on October 5th). If they were to win that game to tie for the Wild Card lead, they would then have to play another one game play-off (technically game 163 of the regular season) to make make it into the Wild Card game against New York, which they would have to win to play in the ALDS. If somehow two or more of the teams between the Angels, Twins and Rangers tied with the Indians, there could be a whole series worth of play-in games before starting up the ALDS. This is the most ridiculous of all outcomes and the one we should all be rooting for as fans of chaos.