As it does every summer, ESPN released its “Summer Forecast” in which it surveys its own panel of NBA “experts” to give their opinions on how the upcoming season is going to transpire.
Earlier in August, the projected Eastern Conference standings went up on the site, and the Nets were penciled in as the eighth seed with a measly 39-43. Ahead of the Nets were the Cavaliers (first), Bulls (second), Raptors, Wizards, Hornets, Heat, and the Hawks.
Of course, last season, the Nets finished in sixth in the East with a 44-38. And the only players they lost from that 2013-14 season are Marcus Thornton (trade to Celtics), Paul Pierce (signed with Wizards), Shaun Livingston (signed with Warriors), Jason Collins (free agency), and Andray Blatche (free agency). I know, those five guys all played key roles in Brooklyn’s success last regular season and postseason.
But, as I noted a few weeks ago, the Nets are adding a major player in Brook Lopez, who barely played due to injury. They also added Jarrett Jack via trade to cancel out the Thornton trade. Bojan Bogdanovic was finally signed after being drafted a few summers ago and young Russian guard Sergey Karasev also came over in the Thornton and Jack deal.
That doesn’t even include Markel Brown and Cory Jefferson, the two Nets’ 2014 draft picks who signed with the team (Xavier Thames is playing overseas). Clearly, Brooklyn has a lot of different pieces than it did last season, but that doesn’t mean the Nets are worse.
First off, the ESPN forecast predicts the Atlanta Hawks, who were six games behind the Nets in 2013-14, to be three games ahead of them in 2014-15, all because Al Horford is expected to come back from injury. Brook Lopez is coming back from injury, too, but that apparently isn’t enough.
The Miami Heat, four-time defending Eastern Conference champions, famously lost LeBron James back to the Cavaliers this summer, but are predicted to be the fifth seed with a 44-38 record. The Charlotte Bobcats Hornets were seventh in the East last season, but make the jump to fourth in the ESPN post. Why? Just because of the offseason acquisitions of Lance Stephenson, rookie Noah Vonleh, and Marvin Williams.
The point I’m trying to make is that these season predictions made by even the most qualified, experienced, and trusted writers in the NBA business are worth next to nothing. The Nets probably will be a playoff team in 2014-15 due to their new players and returning players coming back from injury. But the Hornets at the four in the East? Come on.
There’s a reason why NBA games are played on the court, not on paper, and that reason is that no one can truly and accurately project how the season progresses. Frankly, with the youth and versatility injected into the Nets this offseason, placing them into the last playoff slot may be a bit of an undersell.
Still, until October 30th, when Brooklyn starts its regular season off in Boston against the Celtics, all of this talk is just that: talk. Nothing more.
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