Cougs in HD next fall

http://www.aolsportsblog.com/2007/05/01/abc-saturday-night-college-football-games-announced/

Brink gets one more chance at USC, and it’ll be the prime-time ABC game. That will be, uh, interesting. USC gets major ABC night-game love this year, with 5 games. Glad to see the Beavs-Trojans will be one of them. I’m big on the Beavers’ chances next year, as in 2nd-place in the Pac-10 big, so that could be a good one.

Also interesting to see USC at UW as one of the prime-time games. That’s a late-September game, when classes will be starting up at the U so the students will be ready. Locker will have 4 games under his belt by then, but that USC defense next year!?!? OH MY GOD. Hide the women and children.

Meanwhile, I found this while checking up on the Sonics. Seems that Bennett might have a lot tougher go of it if he really is hell-bent on moving the team. As in, $500-million hell-bent.

“Here’s the deal from insiders, right now – Bennett knows that Oklahoma City is too small to be a viable alternative to Seattle, and wants to keep his options open, if for no other reason than to maintain a credible move threat to keep Washington state legislators antsy about losing their team. Stern, meanwhile, while not wanting to undercut Bennett’s leverage, has his own agenda: He doesn’t want Vegas to think that it can get an NBA team without banning betting on pro basketball games, which is a deal-breaker for the commish. So we get this careful dance, where Bennett is able to drop Las Vegas’ name as a possible relocation site, so long as he doesn’t anoint it the frontrunner. Check out Bennett’s latest statement on Friday, where he completely back-peddled on Vegas after he was chewed out by Stern.

Stern is making it clear now – Bennett isn’t to use the Vegas name anymore. So Bennett’s options will dwindle down to OKC and maybe KC, but that’s really it. Anaheim has been discussed, but the reality is the LA market already has two NBA franchises, plus the bay area market has Golden State and the middle-state market has Sacramento. It’s doubtful the NBA board of governors would feel the need to have five franchises in the state of California, including three in the OC.

Then you consider the true out-of-pocket expenses that a move like this is going to cost. I mean isn’t it always about money?

First there is the buyout of the Key Arena lease, which is iron-clad through the end of the 2010 season. If Bennett really wants to leave after 2008? The threats are already out there that he is going to have to pay dearly for the missing city revenues over 41 nights per year, but also the actual costs of using the building that they would have given the city and county. Oh yeah, can’t forget that there is over $50 million in debt STILL outstanding from when Key Arena was revamped, and the Sonics organization is going to be responsible for a huge chunk of that. And then there is the NBA relocation fee, which some speculate could start – and by start, we’re talking the minimum number to even consider it – at $50 million, cash, to be paid to the league.

SO, quick math:
$350 million spent on the purchase of the team last year, a team appraised at about $220 million from Forbes. Immediately a huge loss there if he were to sell the team.
Plus another $10 million at least in site studies, arena plans, etc for Bellevue and Renton.
$50 million in Key Arena debt that they will absolutely hold them to.
Then let’s speculate and say, oh, $25 million in “various penalties” for breaking the lease early, based on many things, including lost tax dollars that city and county would lose out on from not having 17K show up in Queen Anne for 41 nights a year during the dreariest months of the year (Nov – Apr).
Now take the Key Arena rent the Sonics would pay for the 82 lost dates, total, from the ’09 and ’10 seasons. Finally, throw in another $50 million – to even get into the discussion – in NBA relocation fees.

What do you get? That’s nearly half-a-BILLION dollars. Yes, Billion, with a big, fat B.

Once you get past that number, now here’s where it REALLY doesn’t make any sense.

To move an NBA team is difficult, and not something the commish or board of governors wants. Don’t forget, Bennett might want to ride in and be king of OKC, but the NBA owners will have the final say. Stern usually gets what he wants, but the league benefits from being in Seattle and, if Stern keeps pushing his globalization plan of the NBA, Seattle has obviously strong ties to the far east.

So ask yourself this – Will the NBA owners overwhelmingly approve this thing? Do they want to give up the 12th media market in America for the 47th, just to placate Bennett’s ego as he tries to become the ultimate civic hero? Does it make any business sense for, say, Paul Allen to approve it, losing Portland’s northwest rival? Or even the Lakers, Kings, or other teams out west that travel to Seattle, where there are Lakers, Kings, and other western conference fans, fans that spend money on merchandise, etc? It’s not just losing the NBA for Sonics fans, it’s losing the NBA for NBA fans, something that you just can’t undersell enough. It really does hurt the league to lose a top-12 market, end of discussion. Doesn’t keeping the NBA in the Seattle market make about 1,000 times more sense than trying to justify trading it in for OKC?

The same OKC that is 1/3rd the size of Seattle in every way imaginable. Population, media market size, college-educated, number of millionaires (68,000 millionaires in King County was the number released today, ranked in the top-10 in America). Of course, all those things matter in the kinds of prices the organization can charge for the all-important advertising revenues, luxury suites and premium seat sections, and no matter how much the Sonics would be embraced in OKC, there is no chance that Bennett could get the same kinds of revenue streams over the long haul in OKC vs. the franchise remaining in Seattle. And that’s even if the team were to stay in Key Arena, even with a modest remodel plan of $180 – $200 million.

I’ll say it again – IT’S IMPOSSIBLE TO GET THE SAME REVENUE IN OKC THAN YOU CAN IN SEATTLE. PERIOD.

Then factor in the Sonics’ history in the sport. One of only 8 NBA franchises to be in the league for at least 40 years in the same city. There is something to be said about that kind of history. Does the NBA truly want to just see that disappear? Then, to not only abandon a northwest “hub” of a city that is cosmopolitan in every way, but to move it to a city that has an arena that was built on the cheap? An arena in OKC that Bennett has already gone on the record as saying it isn’t sufficient as a long-term solution for the NBA!?!

You know what? CALL HIS BLUFF. If he really wants to move the team, he will have to pay beyond his wildest dreams, and stands to lose millions upon millions in the years after the team has moved. You think it’s hard to attract free agents to teams like Seattle? Good luck trying to sell the 47th biggest market in the dustbowl of America.

I predict he won’t move the team. Period. The financial loss is too great, and the NBA isn’t this dumb. I’ll go as far as to say that one of two things will happen. 1) He’ll take it to the end, realize he’ll never get his arena dream. The city and county will come up with a fair deal to renovate Key Arena, and Bennett will have to kick in some of the costs, but the Key will take a step forward and be a good business situation. 2) Bennett will say the hell with it, 100% stuck between a rock and a hard place, realize he can’t win by moving the team, and put it up for sale, taking a pretty big loss as he retreats to OKC with his tail between his legs (wait, he never comes to Seattle anyway, so he’d have his tail between his legs from his OKC office).

And if he, and the NBA, is stupid enough to let him move this team? As long as he leaves the name, colors and logo, so be it. Another billionaire will see the light, the tremendous market with a ton of NBA history and the list could be long for those interested in bringing the NBA back to Seattle. And someday, the NBA will return. But bottom line, if this guy moves the team to OKC just because he’s from there, well, he’s a CLASS-A MORON with an ego who I don’t want as the owner of MY SONICS anyway! Good RIDDANCE.