When watching games that matter more for readiness and development than winning, an interesting strategy takes place. In Spring Training at the Major League level as well as Instructional League in the Winter, Extended Spring in April and May and the Arizona Rookie League, roster moves are made more based on a script created pregame than based on in game situations. This is particularly true with starting pitchers, who are generally not ready to throw five or more innings and come into the game knowing their exact pitch count and the innings they will probably throw.
While this strategy is really just about getting players innings, it has some interesting effects from time to time. This year, the AZL Indians have had 13 games of 29 where they have allowed three runs or less and won all 13 while going 21-8 overall. In seven of those 13, the starter pitched at least five innings and no reliever lasted longer than two. The other six games are the ones that interest me, particularly considering the work of Brady Aiken, Cesar Ventura and Ben Krauth.
This isn’t a meant to be a look into the AZL , though, instead a look at their strategy, so it should be enough to say that the Arizona Indians are flush with great pitching that is comfortable pitching up to three innings, but sometimes get into trouble when they go four or more.
In the Majors, the Tampa Bay Rays have been a little more open minded when running their bullpen than the average team and recently used Matt Andriese for a three inning save. In fact, since being pulled from the rotation, Andriese has thrown multiple innings in all but one relief appearance and he has been dominant, particularly more-so in the bullpen than he was in the rotation with a 2.18 ERA and a .171 average allowed.
While there are rare exceptions, almost every pitcher is more dominant when coming out of the bullpen than when starting. If a pitcher knows his exit point when coming into a game, he can better meter out his effort and this has been particularly evident for the Indians with Zach McAllister and Carlos Carrasco‘s turns out of the bullpen. At the same time, there is the risk of a pitcher going through the line-up two to three times in a game. While some pitchers have no issues with this, batters will have an advantage over a pitcher the more they see him, no matter how dominant the starter is.
Taking this idea a little further, it would be interesting if a team were to stockpile converted starters like Andriese or for the Indians Cody Anderson, T.J. House, Mike Clevinger, Shawn Morimando and Ryan Merritt, who have all pitched out of the bullpen this year, then use them for extended outings in the bullpen rather than the typical one batter to one inning appearance. For the Indians, this strategy doesn’t really work right now, because their five starters are extremely talented, but instead imagine a team with all the excess pitching depth, but without any stand out starters.
Using a typical eight man pitching staff, a team could go to a three day rotation instead of the typical five day, using the starter 3-4 innings, then two relievers after them at 2-3 innings apiece. This would probably work better with an eight man bullpen with another pitcher who would pitch one inning at a time whenever the need was greatest, but it would be possible. Because the starter would know he wasn’t going to pitch for an extended period, he wouldn’t have to save anything for late in the game. In addition, by keeping pitchers at closer to 50 pitches than 100, they could pitch on shorter rest and tolerate the three day rotation.
This idea would essentially only work with a staff of pitchers that were more or less equivalent to each other. In addition, it would work best if the same pitchers generally threw as a three man unit to keep them on the same schedule. For example, if the Indians staff was Anderson, House, Clevinger, Mormando, Merritt, Tomlin, Plutko and McAllister, they could alternate right-left-right each game, making it impossible for an opposing team to gain a platoon advantage in the line-up to start the game. They would know that they would probably face six innings of right handers and just three of left, but by using the lefty in the middle, it would likely avoid a strong righty pinch hitting in the middle of the game.
If a team didn’t have a pitching staff that was similar all around, this strategy could work even better. A team could generally use a five man rotation with every fifth start being a more advanced version of a bullpen game with each pitcher throwing three innings. In order to fit the extra pitchers on the roster and to keep them fresh for these games, the overall bullpen would have to be smaller and these three pitchers would likely need to be used during the starts of the other four primary starters.
There are, of course, problems with this idea. First, it depends on each pitcher being able to go his full set each time out without issue as there isn’t much room for emergencies. If your starter, who is expected to throw four innings, can only go two, then either the next two pitchers must pick up the slack the next day’s pitcher must be used. Unless the three or four pitchers who would be starting games were nearly as dependable as those the Indians currently have in the rotation, it could be a recipe for daily roster moves to keep fresh arms coming.
This isn’t a problem in Spring Training when teams have more than 60 players available and can go off script if necessary. It would still be worth trying for a non contending team if only for a short period as a way to test out as many pitchers as possible in a short period. A team like Tampa would be perfect for this, especially if they trade one or more of their top starters. If they were to and it was shown to be effective, it could catch on elsewhere and if it wasn’t effective, we could all forget it ever happened. Teams have played with rotations more complicated than the standard five man including a six or seven man rotation sometimes keeping one or two pitchers on five days rest while the others rotate around them.
This is kind of the opposite of that. When going to a six man rotation, the idea is generally to keep the starter in longer than normal, when a pitcher’s effectiveness is often lessened around the 100 pitch mark. This way, a pitcher would throw less pitches per game, but pitch more often, maximizing his output each time. Chances are no Major League team is ready to give this a chance and no contending team should, but at one point, the five man rotation seemed crazy as well. At any rate, it’s certainly working well for Jhonleider Salinas, Aiken, Ventura, Krauth and the rest in the AZL extremely well right now.
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