Could the New York Mets Have the Best Rotation Ever?

Many MLB experts plus most online betting sites are rating the rotation that the New York Mets will trot out in 2016 as one of the best in history.

Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Matt Harvey were ninth, tenth and twelfth in the Majors in strikeout-to-walk ratio last year, which meant that not only could they throw the ball really hard, they could throw it accurately — and mix in their secondary pitches effectively as well. But how do they stack up historically?

Well, let’s look at the rotation that the St. Louis Cardinals rolled out there in 2015:

• Jaime Garcia, 10-6, 2.43 ERA, 129 ⅔ IP, 20 starts
• John Lackey, 13-10, 2.77 ERA, 218 IP, 33 starts
• Carlos Martinez 14-7, 3.01 ERA, 179 ⅔ IP, 29 starts
• Michael Wacha, 17-7, 3.38 ERA, 181 ⅓ IP, 30 starts
• Lance Lynn, 12-11, 3.03 ERA, 175 ⅓ IP, 31 starts

The rotation as a whole combined for a 2.99 ERA — the second lowest by any rotation since 1992.

How about the 2013 Detroit Tiger rotation?

• Justin Verlander, 13-12, 3.46 ERA, 218 ⅓ IP, 34 starts
• Doug Fister, 14-9, 3.67 ERA, 208 ⅔ IP, 32 starts
• Max Scherzer, 21-3, 2.90 ERA, 214 ⅓ IP, 32 starts
• Rick Porcello, 13-8, 4.32 ERA, 177 IP, 29 starts
• Anibal Sanchez, 14-8, 2.57 ERA, 182 IP, 29 starts

This rotation started 156 of the 162 games the Tigers played that year. Sanchez had the lowest ERA, and Scherzer won the Cy Young Award. This rotation had more strikeouts than any other in American League history.

Then there were the 2011 Philadelphia Phillies:

• Cliff Lee, 17-8, 2.40 ERA, 232 ⅔ IP, 32 starts
• Roy Halladay, 19-6, 2.35 ERA, 233 ⅔ IP, 32 starts
• Roy Oswalt, 9-10, 3.69 ERA, 139 IP, 23 starts
• Cole Hamels, 14-9, 2.79 ERA, 216 IP, 31 starts
• Vance Worley, 11-3, 3.01 ERA, 131 ⅔ IP, 21 starts

This group tallied a 2.86 ERA, the best by a rotation since 1985, when the Dodgers spun a 2.71 ERA and the Mets spun 2.84. How did they stack up in terms of WAR (wins above replacement)?

• Lee: 6.8
• Halladay: 8.3
• Oswalt: 2.7
• Hamels: 4.9
• Worley: 2.5
• Total: 25.2

So what about the Mets?

Well, it’s not that hard to see Harvey earning a 6.5, deGrom 6.0, Syndergaard a 5.5 with an innings cap, Stephen Matz a 4.5 and a combination of Bartolo Colon and Zack Wheeler earning a 3.5, which would add up to 26.0, and make them a solid rotation.

However, they need at least two of them to get over 200 innings. If so, it won’t be a surprise to see these Mets back in the Fall Classic next year.