The countdown to Kickoff is over…And so the countdown to the inevitable first spin of the Coaching Carousel begins.
This is my non-Alabama pet project for the site (good Lord willin’ and Saban don’t leave). I gave it a bit of a trial run last season, but this year, it’s my goal to give you full-blown, wire-to-wire coverage of the Countdown as the situation develops. Now, as a disclaimer, I’m no sadist. I take no joy in the misfortunes of others (except Auburn and Tennessee). But I love me some coaching intrigue. Awkward press conference denials, tepid votes of confidence, clandestine booster meetings, wacky Internet rumors, hilarious talk radio, tracking private jets like kids on Christmas Eve…What’s not to love? Unless Santa leaves a Mike Shula under your tree. In that case, you’re guaranteed seasonal depression for about 4 years. And, believe me, that sucks.
For the sake of brevity, I’ll mainly be focusing on the major BCS programs, unless something interesting develops at a well-known mid-major. So you’ll have to look elsewhere to keep up with your favorite MAC coach. The list of coaches on our Countdown will grow and shrink based on performance. To kick things off, I’m going to highlight 10 key coaches to keep an eye on as the season progresses. This is NOT a Top 10 list of the coaches who I think are on the hottest seats or are the most likely to be fired (although most do meet that criteria in some fashion). Consider these guys “coaches of interest” who’s sucess or failure is going to play a large part in how the Carousel spins.
In no particular order…
HOUSTON NUTT
Record at Ole Miss: 22-16 (10-14)
High Water Mark: In his debut season at Ole Miss in 2008, Nutt engineered a shocking road upset of the Florida Gators and closed out the season with a 6 game win streak, breaking a streak of 4 straight losing seasons and resulting in some lofty expectations for the 2009 season.
What Have You Done For Me Lately?: Nutt managed to duplicate 2008’s 9 wins the next season, but ultimately 2009 was viewed as a mild disappointment due to failing to compete for a conference title. He followed that downer of a year with an outright disastrous 2010, in which the Rebels lost their home opener to an FCS opponent and only managed one conference win on their way to a 4-8 record.
The Situation in 2011: Most prognosticators (including the gang here at CFBZ) have the Rebels pegged for another rough year. It looks like hard times are back again in the Grove. To make matters worse for Nutt, Ole Miss is slumping when rival Missisippi State appears to be on an uptick. The old guard who control the purse strings in Oxford aren’t going to stand for that too much longer.
Chances For Survival: 40%
MIKE SHERMAN
Record at Texas A&M: 19-19 (11-13)
High Water Mark: Sherman guided the Aggies to 6 straight wins to close out the 2010 regular season, including victories over Oklahoma, Nebraska, and hated Texas.
What Have You Done For Me Lately?: Precisely that.
The Situation in 2011: I know I’ll probably get some heat for putting Sherman on the list, considering his stock is the highest it has ever been in his tenure at College Station. But keep in mind, this isn’t so much a “Who’s on the hot seat right now?” list. And while expectations are high for Texas A&M this season, you have to keep in mind that sometimes expectations can work against you. Sherman’s situation was extremely tenuous before he put together that epic win streak. If he returns to his 08/09 form, and crushes the hopes of Aggie fans in the process, it could be just as damaging to him as if that win streak never happened.
Chances For Survival: 70%
MARK RICHT
Record at Georgia: 96-34 (55-28)
High Water Mark: He actually has several. Richt led the Bulldogs to SEC titles in 2002 and 2005, as well as 3 BCS bowl appearances, most recently in 2007.
What Have You Done For Me Lately?: It’s been steadily down hill from there. He won 10 games in 2008, but the year was viewed as a disappointment in light of a #1 preseason ranking. Georgia actually has a losing record in conference play over the past 2 seasons (7-9) and has lost 3 in a row to Florida. Richt appeared to hit rock bottom at the Liberty Bowl, when his Bulldogs put forth an uninspired effort with a winning record on the line and lost to UCF.
The Situation in 2011: Things appear to be looking up for Richt this season. He has a strong looking team and an extremely favorable schedule. He has the pieces in place to cool off his seat considerably. Also working in his favor is that, despite the anguish and frustration his recent struggles have caused the UGA faithful, he remains a mostly beloved figure there. It would likely take a significant meltdown this season to galvanize them into ousting him and eating his buyout.
Chances For Survival: 80%
RON ZOOK
Record at Illinois: 28-45 (16-32)
High Water Mark: Zook won 9 games in 2007 and, thanks to Ohio State playing the BCS title game that year, took the Illini to their first Rose Bowl since 1983. What Have You Done For Me Lately?: Zook followed that up with two straight losing seasons and no bowl appearances of any sort. It took a massive turnover of his coaching staff to keep his job, but apparently, he made some smart choices, as the Illini eeked out a bowl invite and then walloped Baylor to secure a 7-6 record.
The Situation in 2011: This year’s Illinois team doesn’t look appreciably better or worse than last year’s, but their schedule looks very favorable for racking up wins at home. Still, Zook is walking on eggshells here.
Chances for Survival: 50%
DANNY HOPE
Record at Purdue: 9-15 (6-10)
High Water Mark: In his debut season in 2009, Hope led the Boilermakers to an upset over Ohio State.
What Have You Done For Me Lately?: But that’s about it in terms of the positives. Hope has posted two losing seasons and no bowl berths in his time at Purdue. He has lost two home games to MAC opponents.
The Situation in 2011: Being the handpicked successor to Joe Tiller probably counts for something and could extend his stay here, but Hope needs to at least produce a bowl berth this year. They’ve grown accustomed to doing a bit better than 3 consecutive losing seasons at Purdue. Hope did recently sign an extension, but as everyone should know by now, contracts aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on in major college football. He would be far from the first coach to get axed the year after signing an extension.
Chances For Survival: 40%
DABO SWINNEY
Record at Clemson: 19-15 (13-9)
High Water Mark: In his first full season as the proper head coach at Clemson, Swinney defeated both Miami and Florida State and captured the ACC Atlantic division title, coming up 5 points short of Georgia Tech in the conference championship.
What Have You Done For Me Lately?: However, Clemson quickly returned to living up to its reputation as a team that squanders a wealth of talent in 2010. They finished 5th in the division and notched their first losing season (6-7) since 1998, a feat not even the illustrious Tommy Bowden could muster.
The Situation in 2011: Clemson takes its football pretty serious, and they’re not really happy about that reputation I just mentioned. They axed Bowden because of it, and a repeat performance in 2011 will likely get Swinney the same treatment. He’s made a radical change on offense to avert that fate, but only time will tell if the gambit pays off. To make his situation even more perilous, Swinney still works relatively cheaply, meaning he can be shuffled out the door without a financial obligation that hinders Clemson’s ability to woo a “name” coach.
Chances For Survival: 50%
PAUL WULFF
Record at Washington State: 5-32 (2-25)
High Water Mark: Umm… In his first year on the job, Wulff masterminded an upset over then-similarly terrible, 0-12 in-state rival Washington.
What Have You Done For Me Lately?: Let’s just lay it out there: 2-11, 1-11, 2-10. That’s Wulff’s three seasons at Washington State. He has only managed to beat 3 FBS teams over that time (though he did top Oregon State on the road at the end of last year, so I guess that qualifies as some good that happened “lately”).
The Situation in 2011: I feel terrible for having to pick on the poor guy. Wulff inherited a tough job, and he does seem to be making progress. But I dont’ think that progress is going to pay off soon enough to save his job, and I don’t think anyone can blame a school for frowning upon 4 straight losing seasons.
Chances For Survival: 10%
DENNIS ERICKSON
Record at Arizona State: 25-24 (17-19)
High Water Mark: Erickson came roaring out of the gate in 2007 with a 10-win season and a Holiday Bowl berth.
What Have You Done For Me Lately?: In the three seasons since then, the Sun Devils have failed to produce a winning record. They did manage to break even at 6-6 in 2010, but they padded their schedule with two FCS opponents and stayed home for the Holidays for yet another year.
The Situation in 2011: Expectations are high entering Erickson’s 5th year in Tempe. Most prognosticators have ASU pegged as a legit contender to play in the inaugural Pac-12 title game. This is without question the best team he’s had there. But remember what I said about expectations. The 2011 schedule offers no FCS double dip to pad out the record (and instead features two solid non-conference challenges from Missouri and Illinois). More of the same from the perhaps, dare I say it, out of touch Erickson will likely see him out of a job.
Chances For Survival: 50%
RICK NEUHEISEL
Record at UCLA: 15-22 (8-19)
High Water Mark: In truth, it was probably that ad in the paper. THE FOOTBALL MONOPOLY IN LOS ANGELES IS OVER. Or something like that. On th field, it was either that 3-game win streak the Bruins put together to get bowl eligible at the end of the 2009 season, or the road upset over a Top 10-ranked Texas last year (before we found out Texas was terrible).
What Have You Done For Me Lately?: The Texas game was about the sole bright spot in the 2010 season. The Bruins finished up 4-8 and generally looked no closer to breaking into the ranks of the conference’s top teams than they did in 2008.
The Situation in 2011: The stakes are pretty clear for Neuheisel. The Bruins must show significant progress towards being a winning program (one would presume this does not include sneaking into a bowl with another 6-6 season) or he’s gone. At least he knows what he’s up against.
Chances For Survival: 30%
GREG SCHIANO
Record at Rutgers: 59-63 (24-45)
High Water Mark: In 2006, Schiano posted an 11-2 record, leading the Scarlet Knights as high as #6 in the BCS standings at one point.
What Have You Done For Me Lately?: It’s worth noting that Rutgers actually failed to win the Big East title that year. Subsequent Rutgers teams have failed to live up to the promise that flashed in 2006. While the overall win totals continued to look solid, the Scarlet Knights have posted losing conference records in 3 of the last 4 seasons. The team bottomed out at 4-8 last year.
The Situation in 2011: This is probably going to be another controversial one since I haven’t heard a tremendous outcry from Rutgers fans to get rid of Schiano (do Rutgers fans feel strongly enough to outcry about anything?), but this situation is worth paying attention to. The track record of frustrating disappointment is there. If 2011 plays out like 2010 (which many suggest it could), a move could be made.
Chances For Survival: 60%
Honorable Mention goes to Luke Fickell at Ohio State and Everett Withers at North Carolina. Obviously those two jobs are going to have a huge impact on the coaching landscape once the Carousel starts turning, but I didn’t have the heart to include those guys on the list since nobody is expecting them to do more than take their lumps on the field and keep the office tidy for the next proper head coach.
As a note, I think it’s best not to overreact to early wins and losses, so the plan right now is for Coaching Carousel to return at the end of September to do a thorough assessment of everyone’s season so far. We’ll at least go bi-weekly from there until the end of the season, and perhaps beyond.
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